Remote Work And Apple Adoption Will Expand Secure Device Management

Key Takeaways

• Accelerating remote work and Apple's enterprise adoption could significantly outpace expectations, driving Jamf's ARR and revenue growth through untapped verticals and international markets.
  
• Undervalued acquisitions and digital transformation initiatives position Jamf for dominant high-margin, recurring subscription growth with improved operating leverage and global expansion potential.
  
• Heavy reliance on Apple, rising competition, regulatory pressures, and integration risks from acquisitions could strain Jamf's growth, margins, and core focus.

Catalysts

Provides management and security solutions for Apple platforms in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.

• Analyst consensus recognizes Jamf's robust Apple-first security platform and 17% security ARR growth, yet likely understates the magnitude of future demand as the acceleration of remote and hybrid workforces-and Apple's deepening enterprise penetration-could drive a step-change in ARR growth and establish emerging verticals as significant ARR contributors, improving top-line revenue growth above consensus views.
  
• While analysts broadly agree Jamf's international expansion is promising based on 17% growth and projects like Japan's GIGA, the broader opportunity remains underappreciated as Jamf's transition to local currency billing unlocks significant latent demand and competitive wins, suggesting international markets could contribute outsized recurring revenue and expand EBITDA margins faster than expected.
  
• The full strategic and financial value of the Identity Automation acquisition is underestimated; the combination of dynamic identity management with Jamf's device management can make Jamf the de facto unified endpoint and identity platform for education and "deskless" industries globally, accelerating customer additions, cross-selling ARR uplift, and driving high-margin subscription growth.
  
• Jamf's position as the dominant provider of secure Apple device management strongly benefits from the rapid, secular adoption of mobile and IoT devices, positioning it to capture a disproportionate share of SaaS-based IT spend as endpoints proliferate, which supports expanded ARR, margin leverage, and greater cash flow visibility.
  
• The recent systems modernization enabling flexible local currency billing, optimized collections, and automated partner incentives is an inflection point in operating efficiency; this digital transformation sets up sustained improvements in net margins, working capital, and capital-light growth, likely resulting in structurally higher free cash flow than currently modeled.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on Jamf Holding compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming Jamf Holding's revenue will grow by 11.5% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -7.4% today to 5.8% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $51.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.56) by about August 2028, up from $-47.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 98.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -20.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 40.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.31% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.02%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Jamf's business remains heavily dependent on continued growth of Apple device adoption in enterprise and education; any stagnation or decline in Apple's market share could slow ARR growth and negatively impact revenue.
  
• Intensifying competition from large and integrated device management vendors such as Microsoft and VMware-especially as customer demand for cross-platform solutions grows-could erode Jamf's differentiation and exert downward pressure on revenue and operating margins.
  
• The market's evolving preference for open-source or lower-cost device management solutions, combined with ongoing price competition, may force Jamf to lower prices or increase R&D and sales spend, compressing net margins and impacting earnings.
  
• Expanding data privacy and security regulations globally could require increasing compliance investments and create legal exposure, driving up costs and reducing net margins over the long term.
  
• Jamf's recent acquisition of Identity Automation and evolving product complexity raise the risk of integration challenges, possible dilution of focus on core competencies, and increased R&D spend, which could negatively affect both earnings and operating margins if not managed effectively.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for Jamf Holding is $27.0, which is the highest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Jamf Holding's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $27.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $890.8 million, earnings will come to $51.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 98.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.0%.
  
• Given the current share price of $7.42, the bullish analyst price target of $27.0 is 72.5% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.