JAMF: Pending $13.05 Cash Buyout Will Anchor Shares And Limit Near-Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Jamf Holding by about $0.75 per share as they factor in the agreed all cash acquisition at $13.05 as a ceiling on upside and shift ratings to Neutral.

Analyst Commentary

Following the announced all cash acquisition by Francisco Partners at $13.05 per share, analyst sentiment has largely converged around the deal price, with limited debate on near term upside or downside for Jamf Holding on a standalone basis.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that the agreed $13.05 per share takeout effectively caps near term upside and reduces the appeal of Jamf as a growth vehicle in public markets.
Several downgrades to Neutral reflect diminished conviction in further multiple expansion, as the stock price is now tightly anchored to the transaction value.
The sharp reset in prior price targets, including a cut from the low 20s to roughly the deal price, underscores concerns that Jamf would struggle to justify earlier growth and margin expectations on a standalone basis.
With the probability of a competing bid viewed as low, bearish analysts see limited catalysts for valuation re rating and are shifting focus from execution and growth to deal completion risk and timing.

What's in the News

Francisco Partners reached a definitive agreement to acquire Jamf Holding for $13.05 per share in an all cash deal, valuing the company at about $1.9 billion. Jamf will go private and remain headquartered in Minneapolis, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 (Key Developments).
Vista Equity Partners, which owns roughly 34% of Jamf, is expected to fully exit its position as part of the transaction. Vista has already generated close to $1.3 billion in proceeds from prior Jamf share sales (Periodicals/Key Developments).
Piper Sandler downgraded Jamf Holding to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $13.05 from $23, aligning its valuation with the agreed takeover price (Periodicals).
Jamf guided that third quarter 2025 revenue will exceed the previously issued range of $176 million to $178 million, indicating stronger than previously communicated operating performance ahead of the buyout (Key Developments).
A special shareholder meeting has been scheduled for January 8, 2026, where investors are expected to vote on the proposed acquisition by Francisco Partners (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate decreased slightly to approximately $12.01 from about $12.76 per share, reflecting tighter alignment with the $13.05 cash offer.
Discount Rate has risen marginally to about 9.79 percent from roughly 9.70 percent, implying a modestly higher required return for equity holders.
Revenue Growth remained effectively unchanged at around 9.47 percent, signaling stable top line expectations despite the pending transaction.
Net Profit Margin improved slightly to about 12.41 percent from roughly 12.38 percent, indicating a small upward adjustment to long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E declined moderately to roughly 20.50x from about 21.78x, pointing to a lower forward valuation multiple in the updated model.

Expanding Apple ecosystem adoption and cross-platform solutions are fueling Jamf's market growth, lowering churn, and positioning for strong recurring revenue as device diversity rises.
Investments in security, AI, and global partnerships are improving cost efficiency, operational scale, and profitability while enhancing customer experience and compliance.
Jamf faces strategic risks from Apple's ecosystem control, market commoditization, sector spending trends, bundled competitors, and the need for rapid security-focused innovation.

Catalysts

About Jamf Holding

Provides management and security solutions for Apple platforms in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating global adoption of Apple devices in enterprise, education, healthcare, and specialized verticals continues to expand Jamf's total addressable market, especially as organizations shift to hybrid and mobile-first workplace models-supporting sustained multi-year revenue growth.
Heightened organizational focus on cybersecurity and regulatory compliance is driving stronger demand for integrated security and identity management solutions, as demonstrated by 40% YoY growth in Security ARR and successful cross-sell momentum from the recent Identity Automation acquisition-positively impacting both revenue and net margin expansion.
Jamf's recent move to support Android enrollment while keeping Apple at the center of customer mobile strategies enables the company to win larger, cross-platform deals, reduces customer churn, and increases market share, positioning recurring revenue for outperformance as heterogeneous device environments proliferate.
Strategic investments in AI and automation across operations, product, and customer success are improving cost efficiencies, elevating the customer experience, and driving margin leverage, supporting accelerated earnings and operating margin gains.
Expansion of global channel partnerships and increased focus on enterprise sales and automated SMB solutions will drive top-line growth, operational scalability, and improved net profitability by optimizing go-to-market efficiency and leveraging ecosystem partnerships for international expansion.

Jamf Holding Earnings and Revenue Growth

Jamf Holding Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Jamf Holding's revenue will grow by 9.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Jamf Holding will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Jamf Holding's profit margin will increase from -7.4% to the average US Software industry of 13.1% in 3 years.
If Jamf Holding's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $115.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.79) by about September 2028, up from $-49.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -24.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.42% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The increasing adoption of Apple's own native device management and security tools (such as enhancements to Apple Business Manager or managed Apple IDs) poses a significant risk to Jamf's differentiated value proposition, potentially resulting in product commoditization, pricing pressure, and long-term revenue erosion if customers migrate away from best-of-breed, third-party solutions. (Impacts: revenue, net margins)
Jamf's continued reliance on the Apple ecosystem-despite some cross-platform initiatives like new Android enrollment-exposes the company to strategic risks if Apple restricts third-party integrations or modifies its APIs/policies, which could disrupt Jamf's product roadmap and increase customer support and R&D costs. (Impacts: recurring revenue stability, overall net margins)
Consolidation in the Unified Endpoint Management (UEM) market may accelerate, leading to large enterprise IT vendors bundling device management and security as part of broader platforms, thereby reducing Jamf's ability to compete on a standalone basis and putting pressure on both market share and pricing power. (Impacts: topline revenue, gross margins)
Structural trends in public and education sector IT spending-including budgetary constraints, elongated device refresh cycles, and shifting procurement preferences-could slow adoption of specialized device management solutions, pressuring Jamf's core customer base and limiting ARR growth in these high-penetration verticals. (Impacts: ARR growth, customer retention, revenue stability)
Surging cybersecurity threats and changing enterprise security architectures (e.g., shift to zero-trust, focus on network-level rather than device-level security) may demand accelerated R&D and innovation from Jamf; failure to keep pace could erode its competitive position, require higher investment, and compress operating margins. (Impacts: operating margin, R&D expenses, future earnings)

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $14.2 for Jamf Holding based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $881.7 million, earnings will come to $115.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.4%.
Given the current share price of $9.12, the analyst price target of $14.2 is 35.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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