JAMF: Pending $13.05 Cash Buyout Will Anchor Shares And Limit Near-Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Jamf Holding by about $0.75 per share as they factor in the agreed all cash acquisition at $13.05 as a ceiling on upside and shift ratings to Neutral.

Analyst Commentary

Following the announced all cash acquisition by Francisco Partners at $13.05 per share, analyst sentiment has largely converged around the deal price, with limited debate on near term upside or downside for Jamf Holding on a standalone basis.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts highlight that the agreed $13.05 per share takeout effectively caps near term upside and reduces the appeal of Jamf as a growth vehicle in public markets.
• Several downgrades to Neutral reflect diminished conviction in further multiple expansion, as the stock price is now tightly anchored to the transaction value.
• The sharp reset in prior price targets, including a cut from the low 20s to roughly the deal price, underscores concerns that Jamf would struggle to justify earlier growth and margin expectations on a standalone basis.
• With the probability of a competing bid viewed as low, bearish analysts see limited catalysts for valuation re rating and are shifting focus from execution and growth to deal completion risk and timing.

What's in the News

• Francisco Partners reached a definitive agreement to acquire Jamf Holding for $13.05 per share in an all cash deal, valuing the company at about $1.9 billion. Jamf will go private and remain headquartered in Minneapolis, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 (Key Developments).
• Vista Equity Partners, which owns roughly 34% of Jamf, is expected to fully exit its position as part of the transaction. Vista has already generated close to $1.3 billion in proceeds from prior Jamf share sales (Periodicals/Key Developments).
• Piper Sandler downgraded Jamf Holding to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $13.05 from $23, aligning its valuation with the agreed takeover price (Periodicals).
• Jamf guided that third quarter 2025 revenue will exceed the previously issued range of $176 million to $178 million, indicating stronger than previously communicated operating performance ahead of the buyout (Key Developments).
• A special shareholder meeting has been scheduled for January 8, 2026, where investors are expected to vote on the proposed acquisition by Francisco Partners (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate decreased slightly to approximately $12.01 from about $12.76 per share, reflecting tighter alignment with the $13.05 cash offer.
• Discount Rate has risen marginally to about 9.79 percent from roughly 9.70 percent, implying a modestly higher required return for equity holders.
• Revenue Growth remained effectively unchanged at around 9.47 percent, signaling stable top line expectations despite the pending transaction.
• Net Profit Margin improved slightly to about 12.41 percent from roughly 12.38 percent, indicating a small upward adjustment to long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E declined moderately to roughly 20.50x from about 21.78x, pointing to a lower forward valuation multiple in the updated model.