Last Update04 Oct 25
Fair value Increased 2.89%

CrowdStrike Holdings' analyst price target has been raised from approximately $482 to $495. Analysts cite renewed momentum, accelerating growth prospects, and strengthening competitive positioning for the company.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst updates on CrowdStrike reflect a dynamic mix of optimism and ongoing caution regarding the company’s growth trajectory, valuation, and execution. The following summarizes the key bullish and bearish takeaways shaping sentiment around the stock:

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts have raised price targets to as high as $600, citing accelerating growth expectations, increasing market share in endpoint security, and strong performance at industry events and user conferences.
Many analysts point to CrowdStrike’s expanding product portfolio, particularly in artificial intelligence, identity, and next-generation security solutions. These are viewed as catalysts for ongoing, above-market revenue growth.
Positive feedback from customers and partners highlights high satisfaction with CrowdStrike's integrated platform. This suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Analyst sentiment reflects confidence in management’s new guidance. The company’s targets for annual recurring revenue and market expansion appear achievable and set a solid foundation for sustained premium valuation multiples.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are cautious about the pace at which net new annual recurring revenue translates into forward year revenues. They raise concerns about the magnitude of upside to current estimates.
There are lingering questions regarding guidance, with some price targets recently lowered due to perceived conservatism in management’s outlook and only modest increases to full-year forecasts despite strong quarterly results.
Feedback on certain product segments, such as identity security, is mixed. The adoption of newer solutions like Charlotte AI remains limited or unclear.
Analysts flag that stiff competition exists in the endpoint security market. Market volatility could impact the sustainability of current growth rates and premium valuations.

What's in the News

KPMG is expanding its cybersecurity services with CrowdStrike Falcon Next-Gen SIEM, integrating the platform into professional offerings and using the Engagement Licensing Program to enhance security operations and automation for clients (Client Announcements).
CrowdStrike unveiled new Falcon Data Protection innovations designed to prevent GenAI data leaks, insider threats, and data loss across hybrid environments, providing comprehensive coverage with features like runtime protection and AI-powered classification (Product-Related Announcements).
New capabilities were announced in Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security to unify protection for human, non-human, and AI agent identities, including phishing-resistant MFA and identity-driven case management (Product-Related Announcements).
Threat AI was released as the industry’s first agentic threat intelligence system, automating complex analyst workflows for faster investigations and threat response with mission-ready AI agents (Product-Related Announcements).
CrowdStrike and NVIDIA expanded their collaboration to secure agentic AI by integrating Charlotte AI AgentWorks with NVIDIA Nemotron models and increasing governance and protection for AI agents and applications (Client Announcements).

Valuation Changes

Consensus Analyst Fair Value Estimate has increased from $481.53 to $495.45, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in valuation.
Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.44% to 8.48%, indicating a marginal increase in risk or required return expectations.
Revenue Growth projection is up marginally from 21.89% to 21.91%, suggesting steady confidence in future sales expansion.
Net Profit Margin estimate has declined from 6.76% to 6.24%, signaling expectations of slightly lower profitability.
Future P/E (Price-to-Earnings) Ratio has climbed from 306.14x to 341.37x, which highlights an increase in anticipated valuation multiples.

Strategic innovations like Falcon Flex and AI tools are enhancing customer relationships and efficiency, leading to potential revenue growth and improved margins.
Strong cloud partnerships and investments in security products position CrowdStrike for significant market expansion and sustained demand.
Execution risks from reliance on emerging products and acquisitions might impact revenue growth if these products underperform.

Catalysts

About CrowdStrike Holdings

Provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The introduction of Falcon Flex, a subscription model that accelerates module adoption and simplifies procurement, is increasing customer commitment and lengthening customer relationships, potentially leading to increased future revenue and improved net margins due to larger, bundled sales.
CrowdStrike's AI offerings, such as Charlotte, and their innovation in AI capabilities are driving efficiency and operational enhancements both internally and for customers, which could improve future earnings by lowering operational costs and increasing customer satisfaction.
The company's ongoing success with cloud and partner ecosystems, including surpassing $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales, indicates strong growth potential in cloud-derived revenues and faster deal cycles, enhancing revenue streams and market penetration.
Investments in emerging products like Exposure Management, Cloud Security, and Identity Protection that replace legacy systems indicate potential for significant ARR growth, impacting future revenues positively.
The strategic focus on Next-Gen SIEM, cloud-native security, and large-scale partnerships, along with CrowdStrike's expansive data capabilities for AI development, positions the company for robust demand growth, which can drive revenue and contract value higher in future periods.

CrowdStrike Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CrowdStrike Holdings's revenue will grow by 22.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.8% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $691.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.54) by about September 2028, up from $-297.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 232.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -357.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.38% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is a risk that CrowdStrike's reported forward-looking statements may not materialize as expected due to uncertainties, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
The financial results and projections include significant non-GAAP adjustments, which may mask potential volatility and impact perceptions of net margins and profitability.
Competitive pressures in the cloud security market and the need for rapid innovation may increase operational costs, potentially impacting operating margins and free cash flow.
The reliance on emerging products and recent acquisitions, such as Adaptive Shield, to drive growth could introduce execution risks that might affect revenue growth if these products do not perform as anticipated.
Any failure to successfully execute the Falcon Flex subscription model or to maintain high customer retention rates could negatively affect the company's ARR growth and long-term revenue projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $469.159 for CrowdStrike Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $330.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.9 billion, earnings will come to $691.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 232.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $423.51, the analyst price target of $469.16 is 9.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.