Last Update19 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 2.64%

Analysts raised CrowdStrike’s price target to $481.53 (+2.6%) driven by optimism around its expanding AI and security portfolio, long-term ARR growth targets, supportive guidance, and strong customer demand, despite some caution regarding near-term ARR flow-through and revenue translation.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts cited CrowdStrike’s expanding product portfolio—especially into AI, identity, and agentic solutions—as accelerating growth vectors and supporting premium valuation multiples.
Upward revisions followed new long-term guidance, including FY27 net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 20%+ and a $20B ARR target by FY36, regarded as achievable with continued business momentum.
Management conservatism in guidance was seen as enabling potential upside, particularly if AI-related contributions materialize faster than currently anticipated.
Improved customer and partner enthusiasm, robust demand for Falcon Flex and Next-Gen SIEM, and benefits from vendor consolidation and macro cybersecurity tailwinds were highlighted as drivers for higher estimates.
Bearish analysts and more cautious revisions referenced near-term softness in ARR flow-through, ongoing incident impacts on revenue, conservative guidance despite quarterly beats, and questions regarding ARR’s translation to future revenue.

What's in the News

CrowdStrike unveiled a major platform upgrade introducing an Agentic Security Platform, including AI-driven Threat AI, a no-code agent-building tool (Charlotte AI AgentWorks), and a unified AI-ready data layer (Enterprise Graph) to accelerate automation and unify threat intelligence across customers’ environments.
Expanded high-profile partnerships with Salesforce and NVIDIA, integrating Falcon security and Charlotte AI into Salesforce’s platforms and NVIDIA’s AI ecosystems, enabling advanced protection, governance, and operationalization of AI agents within enterprise workflows.
Launched further innovations with AWS, Intel, Meta (including new open benchmarks for LLM security with Meta’s CyberSOCEval), and Redington, deepening global channel reach, strengthening security across endpoints, cloud, SaaS, and AI-powered agents, and specifically targeting cybersecurity for both enterprise and SMB ecosystems.
Introduced Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security, a unified solution to protect human, non-human, and AI agent identities across hybrid environments, and delivered new integrations (e.g., with Veza and OpenAI’s ChatGPT Enterprise) to enhance identity, endpoint, and AI agent governance.
Provided strong earnings guidance (Q3 and FY26 revenue expected between $1.21B–$1.22B and $4.75B–$4.81B, respectively) and reported no activity under the announced buyback program.

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for CrowdStrike Holdings

The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $469.16 to $481.53.
The Future P/E for CrowdStrike Holdings has significantly risen from 232.69x to 306.14x.
The Net Profit Margin for CrowdStrike Holdings has significantly fallen from 8.74% to 6.76%.

Strategic innovations like Falcon Flex and AI tools are enhancing customer relationships and efficiency, leading to potential revenue growth and improved margins.
Strong cloud partnerships and investments in security products position CrowdStrike for significant market expansion and sustained demand.
Execution risks from reliance on emerging products and acquisitions might impact revenue growth if these products underperform.

Catalysts

About CrowdStrike Holdings

Provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The introduction of Falcon Flex, a subscription model that accelerates module adoption and simplifies procurement, is increasing customer commitment and lengthening customer relationships, potentially leading to increased future revenue and improved net margins due to larger, bundled sales.
CrowdStrike's AI offerings, such as Charlotte, and their innovation in AI capabilities are driving efficiency and operational enhancements both internally and for customers, which could improve future earnings by lowering operational costs and increasing customer satisfaction.
The company's ongoing success with cloud and partner ecosystems, including surpassing $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales, indicates strong growth potential in cloud-derived revenues and faster deal cycles, enhancing revenue streams and market penetration.
Investments in emerging products like Exposure Management, Cloud Security, and Identity Protection that replace legacy systems indicate potential for significant ARR growth, impacting future revenues positively.
The strategic focus on Next-Gen SIEM, cloud-native security, and large-scale partnerships, along with CrowdStrike's expansive data capabilities for AI development, positions the company for robust demand growth, which can drive revenue and contract value higher in future periods.

CrowdStrike Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CrowdStrike Holdings's revenue will grow by 22.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.8% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $691.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.54) by about September 2028, up from $-297.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 232.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -357.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.38% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is a risk that CrowdStrike's reported forward-looking statements may not materialize as expected due to uncertainties, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
The financial results and projections include significant non-GAAP adjustments, which may mask potential volatility and impact perceptions of net margins and profitability.
Competitive pressures in the cloud security market and the need for rapid innovation may increase operational costs, potentially impacting operating margins and free cash flow.
The reliance on emerging products and recent acquisitions, such as Adaptive Shield, to drive growth could introduce execution risks that might affect revenue growth if these products do not perform as anticipated.
Any failure to successfully execute the Falcon Flex subscription model or to maintain high customer retention rates could negatively affect the company's ARR growth and long-term revenue projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $469.159 for CrowdStrike Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $330.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.9 billion, earnings will come to $691.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 232.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $423.51, the analyst price target of $469.16 is 9.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.