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MINISO Group Q3 Earning report - Delivers Strong Revenue Growth with Accelerating International Expansion and IP-Led Strategy

Published
26 Jan 25
Updated
16 Dec 25
Views
28
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Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value
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1Y
-15.7%
7D
0.7%

Author's Valuation

US$2314.4% undervalued intrinsic discount

Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value

Last Update 16 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 24%

Recent valuation

Executive Summary

MINISO Group Holding Ltd delivered a robust performance for the quarter ended September 2025, with revenue rising 28.2% YoY to $814.2 million, exceeding market expectations and supporting the upper end of management guidance. Growth was driven primarily by strong international expansion, particularly in the United States, and continued success of its IP-driven product strategy.

Adjusted operating profit crossed a significant milestone of RMB 1 billion for the first time, growing 40.8% YoY, underscoring the scalability of MINISO’s global retail model despite margin pressures. International revenue growth exceeded 65%, while same-store sales in key overseas markets posted low double-digit growth.

However, profitability faced near-term headwinds. Adjusted operating margin declined by 2.1 percentage points, reflecting structural shifts toward international direct-operated stores, higher selling expenses, and an elevated effective tax rate of 33.9%. Management expects margin pressure to persist in the near term as it continues to invest aggressively in overseas growth, IP collaborations, and flagship store formats.

Overall, MINISO remains firmly positioned as a fast-scaling global lifestyle and IP retail platform, with strong balance sheet liquidity, rapid store network expansion, and differentiated experiential retail concepts such as MINISO LAND supporting long-term growth.

Financial Highlights – Statement of Profit or Loss ($’million)

$’million       Sep 2025      Sep 2024      YoY

Revenue      814.2  644.5  +28.2%

Cost of Revenue   450.4  355.2  +26.8%

Gross Profit  363.8  289.3  +25.8%

Operating Expenses        244.9  167.8  +45.9%

Operating Income          118.9  121.5  -2.1%

Net Income 61.9    91.5    -32.3%

EBITDA         122.8  124.1  -1.1%

Basic EPS ($) 0.20    0.30    -33%

Gross Margin (%)   44.7% 44.9% (0.2 pts)

Effective Tax Rate 33.9% 24.8% +9.1 pts

Revenue Performance

MINISO delivered broad-based top-line growth, led by international markets and IP-centric product innovation.

Key Growth Drivers

  • International Markets: Revenue growth exceeded 65%, with the United States standing out as a major contributor.
  • Store Network Expansion: Net addition of 170 international stores and 102 domestic stores during the quarter.
  • TopToy Brand: Revenue surged 111% YoY, reflecting strong demand for collectible toys and blind-box formats.
  • IP Strategy: Over 70% of products in flagship formats are IP collaborations, driving higher traffic and engagement.

Business Segment & Strategic Commentary

1. International Expansion – Core Growth Engine

  • Rapid overseas store rollout, especially in North America.
  • Shift toward direct-operated international stores, boosting revenue but increasing operating costs.
  • Same-store sales growth in low double digits demonstrates improving brand penetration.

2. IP-Driven Retail & Product Innovation

  • Strong performance from proprietary and licensed IPs (Disney, Sanrio, MINISO-owned IPs).
  • TopToy’s triple-digit growth highlights success in trendy toy and collectible categories.
  • IP products enhance pricing power, customer stickiness, and brand differentiation.

3. Flagship Format: MINISO LAND

  • Opening of Australia’s first MINISO LAND in Sydney marks a major strategic milestone.
  • Over 800 sqm, featuring 7,000+ SKUs, immersive IP zones, and experiential retail design.
  • Early traction positions MINISO LAND as a global brand amplifier and sales accelerator, replicating prior success in China.

Profitability and Margins

Operating Leverage Dynamics

  • Operating income declined slightly despite strong revenue growth due to:
    • Higher selling expenses (+33.7% YoY)
    • Increased labor and leasing costs from international direct stores
    • Higher business investments to support global scale

Tax & Net Income Impact

  • Effective tax rate rose to 33.9%, driven by share-based compensation and YH losses.
  • Net income declined 32% YoY, reflecting investment-heavy growth phase rather than demand weakness.

Balance Sheet Overview ($’million)

$’million       Sep 2025      Sep 2024      % Δ

Total Assets  4,026.9         2,299.2         +75%

Cash & Short-Term Investments 1,089.9         807.3  +35%

Total Liabilities       2,506.0         936.2  +168%

Total Equity  1,520.9         1,363.0         +12%

Net Debt     453.2  (508.4)         –

Interpretation

  • Strong liquidity supports aggressive global expansion.
  • Rising liabilities reflect lease obligations and debt tied to rapid store rollout.
  • Balance sheet remains adequate to fund growth initiatives and flagship investments.

Key Ratios & Indicators

Metric          Performance

Revenue Growth YoY      +28.2%

Gross Margin         44.7%

Operating Margin 14.6%

Net Income Growth YoY -32.3%

International Store Additions     +170

Cash per Share ($) 1.42

TopToy Revenue Growth +111%

Strategic Insights

  • MINISO is prioritizing scale and brand penetration over short-term margin optimization.
  • The “Super IP + Super Store” strategy (MINISO LAND) is emerging as a powerful growth lever globally.
  • International markets, especially the US and Australia, are becoming central to revenue mix.
  • Structural margin pressure is expected to normalize as stores mature and operational efficiency improves.

Strengths

  • Strong international growth momentum.
  • Scalable IP-driven retail model.
  • Rapid store network expansion.
  • Solid cash position to fund growth.
  • Proven ability to localize global retail concepts.

Weaknesses

  • Margin compression from revenue mix shifts.
  • Rising operating and selling expenses.
  • Elevated effective tax rate.
  • Exposure to macro and social disruptions in Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Outlook

MINISO remains positioned for continued high-teens to high-20s revenue growth, driven by:

  • Ongoing international store expansion.
  • Replication of MINISO LAND flagship format globally.
  • Continued strength in IP collaborations and TopToy.

Near-term margins are likely to remain under pressure, but management’s strategy suggests long-term value creation through scale, brand equity, and global IP leadership.

Analyst View

“MINISO is executing a deliberate shift toward global scale and experiential retail. While margins are under pressure in the near term, accelerating international growth, strong IP monetization, and the successful rollout of MINISO LAND reinforce the company’s long-term growth narrative.”

Conclusion

MINISO Group delivered strong revenue growth and a record operating profit milestone, underscoring the strength of its international expansion and IP-led retail strategy. Despite near-term margin headwinds, the company’s aggressive global rollout, flagship innovation, and differentiated product ecosystem position it well to compound growth and strengthen its global lifestyle brand leadership over the medium to long term.

 

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The user Wane_Investment_House holds no position in NYSE:MNSO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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