BioXcel Therapeutics

BTAI: Upcoming Regulatory Milestones Will Drive Momentum Following Key Phase 3 Success

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

17 Apr 25

Updated

17 Dec 25

Views

269

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-68.8%

7D

-7.5%

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1Y

-68.8%

7D

-7.5%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 18 5:05 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$16.7589.7% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 17 Dec 25

BTAI: At Home Agitation Approval Pathway Will Drive Bullish Repricing

Narrative Update on BioXcel Therapeutics Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on BioXcel Therapeutics, citing a reaffirmed fair value estimate near $16.75 per share, supported by stable long term growth and profitability assumptions, despite a slightly higher discount rate and modestly richer projected valuation multiples. What's in the News Shareholders are scheduled to vote at the December 12, 2025 AGM on an amendment to the certificate of incorporation that would enable a reverse stock split, which may reflect efforts to maintain listing compliance and improve share price optics (company filing).

Shared on 03 Dec 25

BTAI: Phase 3 At Home Agitation Data Will Drive Bullish Repricing

Analysts have raised their price target on BioXcel Therapeutics to $4 from $2, citing stronger long term risk adjusted sales potential for BXCL501 supported by positive Phase 3 SERENITY At Home data, while still flagging financing uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Analysts updating their models following the SERENITY At Home readout are highlighting both improved long term revenue potential and persistent execution risks that temper the valuation upside.

Shared on 19 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 29%

BTAI: Strong Phase 3 Study Results Will Drive Further Market Momentum

Analysts have lowered their fair value estimate for BioXcel Therapeutics from $23.75 to $16.75 per share, citing improved long-term revenue projections and profit margins. This outlook is balanced by ongoing uncertainties related to the company’s financing strategy.

Shared on 04 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 25%

Analysts have increased their fair value price target for BioXcel Therapeutics from $19 to $23.75, citing improved revenue growth expectations, a higher profit margin forecast, and optimism following positive BXCL501 study results as well as expanded indications. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of optimism and ongoing caution surrounding BioXcel Therapeutics following positive developments for BXCL501 and improving financial projections.

Shared on 01 Aug 25

Fair value Decreased 18%

BioXcel Therapeutics’ consensus price target was revised downward due to significantly reduced revenue growth forecasts, partly offset by improved profit margins, resulting in a new fair value estimate of $19.00. What's in the News The pivotal Phase 3 SERENITY At-Home clinical trial of BXCL501 for the acute treatment of agitation in bipolar disorders or schizophrenia at home has completed patient visits, with topline data expected soon to support a supplemental New Drug Application for outpatient label expansion.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 2.96%

Shared on 24 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 3.05%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 224.4% to 198.1%, increased profit margin from 10.5% to 16.8%, decreased future PE multiple from 39.9x to 29.9x and decreased shares outstanding growth rate from 0.3% to 0.1%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$16.75

89.7% undervalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

69.02%

Biotech revenue growth rate

8.57%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

12.08%

Calculation

US$38.12m

Earnings '28

x

29.48x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$1.12b

Market Cap '28

US$1.12b

Market Cap '28

/

48.05m

No. shares '28

=

US$23.39

Share Price '28

US$23.39 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 11.77% p.a.

=

US$16.75

Fair Value '25