Update shared on 17 Dec 2025
Narrative Update on BioXcel Therapeutics
Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on BioXcel Therapeutics, citing a reaffirmed fair value estimate near $16.75 per share, supported by stable long term growth and profitability assumptions, despite a slightly higher discount rate and modestly richer projected valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Shareholders are scheduled to vote at the December 12, 2025 AGM on an amendment to the certificate of incorporation that would enable a reverse stock split, which may reflect efforts to maintain listing compliance and improve share price optics (company filing).
- BioXcel plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application in early first quarter 2026 seeking FDA approval for at home use of IGALMI for acute agitation in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, with the goal of expanding treatment beyond institutional settings (company update).
- The SERENITY At Home Phase 3 safety trial of BXCL501 in the at home setting reported an adverse event profile consistent with the existing IGALMI label and prior institutional studies, which supports the safety basis for the planned sNDA (company update).
- Net revenue from IGALMI fell to 98,000 dollars in the third quarter of 2025 from 214,000 dollars a year earlier, as the company shifts resources toward late stage clinical trials and reduces commercial personnel (company update).
- A correlation study from the SERENITY At Home program showed a strong, statistically significant correlation between clinician rated PEC scores and patient or caregiver mCGI S ratings, which reinforces the use of the mCGI S scale for at home efficacy assessment in the planned sNDA package (company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate is unchanged at approximately $16.75 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value outlook.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 11.69 percent to 11.77 percent, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at roughly 455.20 percent, indicating no material adjustment to long term top line expansion assumptions.
- Net Profit Margin is essentially flat at around 16.03 percent, suggesting stable expectations for long term profitability.
- Future P/E has risen slightly from about 29.41 times to 29.48 times, implying a modestly richer valuation multiple on projected earnings.
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