Last Update 17 Dec 25

NEXN: Future CTV Platform Strength And Buybacks Will Drive Market Reappraisal

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Nexxen International by as much as $10, to a range of about $8 to $15. They cited a sharp guidance reset tied to weaker activity from key DSP partners, despite confidence in the strength of the company’s integrated ad-tech platform and data infrastructure.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts acknowledge the immediate pressure from reduced guidance but argue that Nexxen's valuation already reflects a significant portion of the downside. They see room for upside if the company can stabilize relationships with key demand side partners and re accelerate growth across its broader customer base.

Bearish analysts, by contrast, are focused on the risk that these headwinds persist longer than management anticipates, potentially constraining both revenue growth and margin expansion over the next several quarters.

Bullish Takeaways

Some analysts maintain Buy or Outperform ratings. They assert that the recent guidance reset is largely event driven and does not fundamentally impair the long term opportunity in connected TV and programmatic advertising.
They highlight Nexxen's integrated DSP and SSP stack and proprietary data assets as key differentiators that can help recapture spend and deepen wallet share. This is seen as supporting a potential return to double digit growth and multiple expansion over time.
Despite reduced price targets, bullish analysts view the current share price as discounting a cautious scenario. They see potential for multiple re rating if execution on new demand channels and self serve offerings improves in 2025.
Earlier positive initiation commentary pointed to the structural growth of the connected TV ad market and Nexxen's enhanced visibility from its Nasdaq listing as tailwinds that can attract incremental investor interest and support a higher valuation over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts argue that the sharp reset to full year and FY2025 guidance raises questions about management's visibility into demand trends. This suggests execution risk that may warrant a lower valuation multiple.
They are concerned that changes in spending behavior from a major DSP customer and other third party partners could signal more persistent share loss. This may limit near term growth and delay the path back to prior earnings expectations.
Macro and industry specific pressures, including weaker advertising budgets and softer connected TV ad pricing, are seen as compounding headwinds that could keep revenue growth subdued and margins under pressure in the near term.
Downgrades and steeper price target cuts reflect a view that Nexxen will remain in a wait and see phase with investors until a clear positive catalyst emerges, such as evidence of reaccelerating spend or confirmation that 2026 growth targets are achievable.

What's in the News

Nexxen International launched measurement and optimization capabilities within Nexxen Health, including first to market Auto Allocate in Nexxen DSP, to help health and pharmaceutical advertisers dynamically shift spend toward high quality audiences while maintaining privacy compliance (Key Developments).
The company introduced Nexxen Sports, a data driven solution that pairs premium live sports inventory with audience insights and dynamic creative tools to reach highly engaged sports fans across devices and marquee events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Key Developments).
Nexxen authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $40 million and provided an update showing millions of shares already bought back, signaling continued use of buybacks as a capital return lever (Key Developments).
The company lowered its full year 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting programmatic revenue growth of about 6 percent at the midpoint, or 9 percent excluding political, with programmatic comprising roughly 95 percent of total revenue (Key Developments).
Nexxen expanded its data partnerships and platform capabilities, licensing its automatic content recognition audience segments to Yahoo DSP, launching a Curated Marketplace solution, and enabling programmatic activation of native Smart TV inventory globally through Nexxen DSP (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: unchanged at approximately $12.34 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate: edged down slightly from about 8.52 percent to 8.52 percent, reflecting a marginally lower required return.
Revenue Growth: reduced modestly from roughly 6.11 percent to 5.84 percent, signaling a slightly more conservative top line outlook.
Net Profit Margin: increased slightly from about 10.18 percent to 10.26 percent, implying a small improvement in expected profitability.
Future P/E: effectively unchanged at around 17.57x, suggesting no material shift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Exclusive CTV partnerships, AI integration, and privacy-compliant data position Nexxen for sustained growth, expanded margins, and a stronger global market presence.
Industry trends and regulatory shifts create significant opportunities for Nexxen to gain market share and improve revenue mix versus competitors.
AI search trends, weak CTV growth, business line declines, risky investments, and rising privacy regulations threaten Nexxen's revenue, margins, and data-driven advantages.

Catalysts

About Nexxen International

Provides end-to-end and video-first platform that engages advertising campaigns for brands, agencies, media groups, and content creators worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The expanded, long-term partnership with VIDAA secures exclusive access to valuable CTV inventory and ACR data, enabling Nexxen to uniquely monetize North American and international connected TV audiences as VIDAA grows its global footprint-likely driving higher revenues and a larger addressable market starting in 2026.
Rapid deployment and adoption of Nexxen's proprietary AI suite (nexAI) is already producing customer efficiency gains and improved campaign outcomes, with further platform integration planned to automate more functions, which is expected to expand gross and net margins through operating leverage as usage scales.
Surging demand for data-driven advertising-especially solutions that don't rely on third-party cookies-amplifies Nexxen's competitive edge as a differentiated provider with exclusive, privacy-compliant first-party and contextual data, positioning it for sustainable growth in tech and data licensing revenue and enhanced margin mix.
Ongoing global migration from linear TV to programmatic digital/CTV advertising, particularly in high-growth markets, bolsters Nexxen's end-to-end platform advantage, providing multi-year tailwinds for revenue growth and supporting margin expansion through higher platform utilization and cross-channel capabilities.
Potential shifts in competitive dynamics, such as the outcome of ongoing Google antitrust proceedings, could open significant opportunities for independent ad tech players like Nexxen to gain more direct access to inventory and increase market share, which, if realized, could drive above-trend revenue and EBITDA growth.

Nexxen International Earnings and Revenue Growth

Nexxen International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Nexxen International's revenue will grow by 8.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 13.4% today to 10.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $50.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.91) by about September 2028, up from $49.7 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 21.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Media industry at 20.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 6.35% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Nexxen International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The open Internet is facing potential long-term headwinds as AI-driven search and summary experiences reduce user visits to web pages and ad monetization opportunities, potentially shrinking Nexxen's addressable market for display and open web programmatic advertising, which could impact long-term revenues.
Despite exclusivity with VIDAA, Connected TV (CTV) year-over-year revenue growth was only 1% in Q2-significantly lagging ad tech peers-indicating ongoing challenges in translating partnerships into substantial top-line expansion; if this sluggish trend persists, it could pressure future revenue growth and market share gains.
The company continues to experience declines in display, mobile, PMP, and some verticals (e.g., retail and government), raising concerns that certain business lines may face structural secular pressures or commoditization, risking negative impacts to both overall revenues and net margins.
Heavy ongoing investments-including an additional $35 million in VIDAA and further M&A exploration-heighten the risk of capital allocation missteps; if these bets fail to yield expected synergies or market penetration, it could lead to lower returns on invested capital, margin compression, or even impair earnings through underperforming assets.
Increasing prevalence of data privacy regulations and industry changes (such as cookie deprecation and growing preference for ad-free or walled garden environments) may erode Nexxen's data-centric competitive advantage and restrict future data monetization, creating longer-term risks to both revenue growth and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.489 for Nexxen International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.4, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $473.9 million, earnings will come to $50.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 21.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $9.69, the analyst price target of $16.49 is 41.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Hold Nexxen International Target as Market Visibility and Digital Growth Drive Mixed Outlook