NEXN: Future CTV Platform Strength And Buybacks Will Drive Market Reappraisal

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Nexxen International by as much as $10, to a range of about $8 to $15. They cited a sharp guidance reset tied to weaker activity from key DSP partners, despite confidence in the strength of the company’s integrated ad-tech platform and data infrastructure.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts acknowledge the immediate pressure from reduced guidance but argue that Nexxen's valuation already reflects a significant portion of the downside. They see room for upside if the company can stabilize relationships with key demand side partners and re accelerate growth across its broader customer base.

Bearish analysts, by contrast, are focused on the risk that these headwinds persist longer than management anticipates, potentially constraining both revenue growth and margin expansion over the next several quarters.

Bullish Takeaways

• Some analysts maintain Buy or Outperform ratings. They assert that the recent guidance reset is largely event driven and does not fundamentally impair the long term opportunity in connected TV and programmatic advertising.
• They highlight Nexxen's integrated DSP and SSP stack and proprietary data assets as key differentiators that can help recapture spend and deepen wallet share. This is seen as supporting a potential return to double digit growth and multiple expansion over time.
• Despite reduced price targets, bullish analysts view the current share price as discounting a cautious scenario. They see potential for multiple re rating if execution on new demand channels and self serve offerings improves in 2025.
• Earlier positive initiation commentary pointed to the structural growth of the connected TV ad market and Nexxen's enhanced visibility from its Nasdaq listing as tailwinds that can attract incremental investor interest and support a higher valuation over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts argue that the sharp reset to full year and FY2025 guidance raises questions about management's visibility into demand trends. This suggests execution risk that may warrant a lower valuation multiple.
• They are concerned that changes in spending behavior from a major DSP customer and other third party partners could signal more persistent share loss. This may limit near term growth and delay the path back to prior earnings expectations.
• Macro and industry specific pressures, including weaker advertising budgets and softer connected TV ad pricing, are seen as compounding headwinds that could keep revenue growth subdued and margins under pressure in the near term.
• Downgrades and steeper price target cuts reflect a view that Nexxen will remain in a wait and see phase with investors until a clear positive catalyst emerges, such as evidence of reaccelerating spend or confirmation that 2026 growth targets are achievable.

What's in the News

• Nexxen International launched measurement and optimization capabilities within Nexxen Health, including first to market Auto Allocate in Nexxen DSP, to help health and pharmaceutical advertisers dynamically shift spend toward high quality audiences while maintaining privacy compliance (Key Developments).
• The company introduced Nexxen Sports, a data driven solution that pairs premium live sports inventory with audience insights and dynamic creative tools to reach highly engaged sports fans across devices and marquee events such as the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Key Developments).
• Nexxen authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $40 million and provided an update showing millions of shares already bought back, signaling continued use of buybacks as a capital return lever (Key Developments).
• The company lowered its full year 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting programmatic revenue growth of about 6 percent at the midpoint, or 9 percent excluding political, with programmatic comprising roughly 95 percent of total revenue (Key Developments).
• Nexxen expanded its data partnerships and platform capabilities, licensing its automatic content recognition audience segments to Yahoo DSP, launching a Curated Marketplace solution, and enabling programmatic activation of native Smart TV inventory globally through Nexxen DSP (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: unchanged at approximately $12.34 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate: edged down slightly from about 8.52 percent to 8.52 percent, reflecting a marginally lower required return.
• Revenue Growth: reduced modestly from roughly 6.11 percent to 5.84 percent, signaling a slightly more conservative top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: increased slightly from about 10.18 percent to 10.26 percent, implying a small improvement in expected profitability.
• Future P/E: effectively unchanged at around 17.57x, suggesting no material shift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.