NEXN: Future CTV Strength And Share Repurchases Will Drive Market Reappraisal

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Nexxen International to $12.34 from $14.84, as lower price targets across the Street reflect near term disruption from a key DSP partner and softer guidance. This is partly offset by confidence in the company’s differentiated end to end ad tech platform and improving profitability profile.

Analyst Commentary

Street commentary on Nexxen reflects a mixed but increasingly cautious stance, with most firms trimming price targets while acknowledging pockets of operational strength. Recent guidance reductions and changing partner dynamics are weighing on sentiment, even as the company continues to demonstrate improving profitability and differentiation in connected TV.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that recent quarters delivered Contribution ex-TAC and EBITDA modestly ahead of expectations, supporting the view that Nexxen can execute on cost discipline and margin expansion.
• There is continued emphasis on Nexxen's differentiated end to end platform, particularly its integrated DSP and SSP stack and proprietary data infrastructure, as a structural advantage that can support long term growth and pricing power.
• Some see the current disruption from a major DSP relationship as manageable, pointing to other demand channels and product areas that can offset lost volumes over time and limit downside to long term estimates.
• Connected TV is viewed as one of the fastest growing segments in digital advertising. Nexxen's positioning in this channel, along with its Nasdaq listing and index inclusion, is seen as a catalyst for broader investor awareness and potential re rating once near term headwinds subside.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts focus on the magnitude and surprise nature of the recent guidance cuts, which they see as evidence of weaker visibility into partner behavior and a more challenging execution backdrop for FY2025 and beyond.
• Shifts in spending from a major DSP customer, along with lower than expected activity from third party DSPs and certain advertisers, are viewed as structural risks that could cap growth and compress valuation multiples in the near term.
• External factors, including platform changes at a large DSP partner, softer connected TV ad pricing, and more cautious ad budgets, are seen as creating a difficult fundamental setup that may delay a return to durable double digit growth.
• Some expect Nexxen shares to remain in a de facto penalty box until management can demonstrate re accelerated growth, greater diversification away from any single partner, and consistent delivery against its medium term growth targets.

What's in the News

• The Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan on November 20, 2025, signaling ongoing commitment to capital returns (company announcement).
• Nexxen launched a $40 million share repurchase program, with 57,086,122 ordinary shares outstanding as of October 31, 2025 (company announcement).
• The company lowered full-year 2025 earnings guidance and now expects programmatic revenue to be about 95% of total 2025 revenue, with programmatic growth of roughly 6% at the midpoint, or 9% excluding political (company guidance).
• Nexxen reported that from May 1 to September 19, 2025, it completed repurchases totaling 4,956,679 shares, representing 8.74% of shares for $50 million. This was followed by an additional 661,532 shares repurchased for $6.1 million under an August 15, 2025 authorization (company filings).
• The company expanded its CTV and data capabilities, including licensing ACR audience segments to Yahoo DSP in the U.S., U.K., and Germany, and rolling out its Curated Marketplace and first-to-market programmatic activation of native Smart TV home screen inventory via Nexxen DSP (product announcements).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate reduced significantly from $14.84 to $12.34 per share, implying a lower long term valuation framework.
• Discount Rate effectively unchanged at about 8.52 percent, indicating a stable view of Nexxen's risk profile and cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth nudged slightly higher from about 6.10 percent to 6.11 percent annually, reflecting a modestly more optimistic top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin increased slightly from about 10.06 percent to 10.18 percent, signaling a small improvement in expected profitability.
• Future P/E Multiple lowered meaningfully from about 21.4x to 17.6x, suggesting a more conservative stance on Nexxen's earnings multiple and re rating potential.