AI-generated Content Will Drive Future User Engagement On Platforms Like YouTube

Key Takeaways

• AI integration across Alphabet's products is poised to boost user engagement and expand revenue streams in consumer and business services.
  
• Google Cloud's AI-driven growth and enhanced search and YouTube features are key to higher margins and increased ad and subscription revenues.
  
• Continued investment in AI and clean energy, legal uncertainties, and increased content costs could pressure Alphabet's margins and revenue growth.

Catalysts

Offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.

• Alphabet's investment in AI infrastructure and efficiencies in machine costs is expected to significantly reduce expenses and improve net margins by lowering operational costs associated with AI queries by more than 90%.
  
• The integration of Gemini AI models across Alphabet's products, which already reach billions of users, is anticipated to drive future growth in user engagement and increase revenue by expanding AI usage to consumer and business services.
  
• Google Cloud's accelerated growth, with AI infrastructure and enterprise AI platforms gaining traction and achieving a 35% revenue increase, positions it to drive higher operating margins and earnings from an expanding customer base adopting AI and data analytics solutions.
  
• Alphabet's expansion of AI-powered Search features, such as AI Overviews and Circle to Search, is expected to enhance user experience and engagement, leading to increased search queries and potentially higher ad revenues.
  
• The increase in YouTube ad and subscription revenues, fueled by enhanced platform features and AI-generated content, is likely to contribute to higher overall revenue and improved earnings from the digital media segment.

Alphabet Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Alphabet's revenue will grow by 11.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 27.7% today to 28.5% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $133.2 billion (and earnings per share of $11.4) by about December 2027, up from $94.3 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.5x on those 2027 earnings, down from 25.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 25.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.52% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.93%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Alphabet Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Continued investment in AI infrastructure and clean energy projects may lead to increased capital expenditure, impacting net margins.
  
• Losses in the Network revenue segment and potential advertising revenue headwinds in Q4 indicate challenges in maintaining revenue growth.
  
• Legal uncertainties surrounding partnerships, such as the Apple ISA contract, could impact revenue streams from search query volumes on certain platforms.
  
• Increased costs in content acquisition and platform investments, notably for YouTube, could compress net margins if not offset by sufficient revenue growth.
  
• Structural and operational changes necessary for AI advancements may impose short-term costs or inefficiencies, impacting earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $209.85 for Alphabet based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $240.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $151.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $468.0 billion, earnings will come to $133.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.9%.
• Given the current share price of $195.42, the analyst's price target of $209.85 is 6.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.