Last Update04 Sep 25
Fair value Increased 2.10%

Analysts view the DOJ antitrust ruling as materially less punitive than expected, reducing regulatory risks and supporting Alphabet’s competitive positioning in search, AI, and cloud, leading to a constructive outlook and maintaining the consensus price target at $226.71.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are raising price targets as the recent DOJ antitrust remedy in the Google search case removes major regulatory overhangs, with remedies considered materially less punitive than feared and allowing Google to maintain key distribution and Traffic Acquisition Cost payments.
The court’s decision ensures Google will not be forced to divest core assets like Chrome or Android, nor required to implement a search choice screen, preserving Google’s dominant search distribution and partner relationships.
Analysts expect the ruling to drive multiple expansion for Alphabet, citing a closing gap to historical valuation levels and reduced discounts relative to peers, supported by resilient ad trends and ongoing AI progress.
The decision is viewed as confirming Google’s strong competitive position in AI and cloud, with the company labeled as an “AI winner,” and positive trends seen in cloud growth, AI adoption, and monetization opportunities.
While some remain Neutral due to prior anticipation of the outcome or broader competitive pressures, the consensus is that the legal resolution is a net positive for financials and sentiment, providing near-term clarity and lifting a significant stock overhang.

What's in the News

Apple is evaluating Google's Gemini AI to potentially power a new AI-driven Siri search feature, while also negotiating a broader partnership around Siri's 2026 overhaul (Bloomberg, 2025-09-03; 2025-08-22).
A U.S. judge ruled that Google will not be forced to divest Chrome as an antitrust remedy but barred the company from entering exclusive internet search contracts; meanwhile, the EU has postponed a significant antitrust fine over fears of retaliation impacting U.S.-EU trade talks (Bloomberg, 2025-09-02; 2025-09-03).
Google secured a $10B+ multi-year cloud contract from Meta, and separately, its Waymo robotaxi fleet in the San Francisco Bay Area has expanded to 800 vehicles, nearly tripling previous disclosures (CNBC, The Information, 2025-08-21; SF Examiner, 2025-08-28).
Alphabet's Verily is shuttering its medical device program to concentrate resources on AI and data infrastructure, and Google continues to seek new AI/data licensing opportunities with news organizations (Business Insider, 2025-08-27; Bloomberg, 2025-07-22).
Regulatory and legal pressures are mounting globally: Google lost an antitrust case in Australia concerning app store practices, faces continued EU scrutiny (with a pending fine and a €4.12B penalty recommendation), and is being designated as holding "strategic market advantage" in the UK, increasing its exposure to new regulatory regimes (ABC, FT, WE, 2025-08-13, 2025-06-20, 2025-07-21).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for Alphabet

The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $226.71.
The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Alphabet remained effectively unchanged, at 11.3% per annum.
The Discount Rate for Alphabet remained effectively unchanged, at 8.03%.

Accelerating AI adoption and innovation are driving increases in user engagement, search monetization, and sustained revenue growth across core businesses.
Diversifying products and expanding globally, particularly in cloud services and subscriptions, are improving margins and strengthening long-term growth potential.
Heavy infrastructure spending, reliance on ad revenue, legal pressures, unprofitable new ventures, and rising competition threaten Alphabet's future profitability and market position.

Catalysts

About Alphabet

Offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of AI-powered features (such as AI Overviews, AI Mode, and Gemini 2.5) is increasing user engagement and commercial search query volume, positioning Alphabet to monetize a larger user base and expand advertising-driven revenue on a forward-looking basis.
Surging demand for Google Cloud's AI infrastructure and services, evidenced by record multi-billion dollar deals, a 38% YoY increase in backlog, and ongoing capacity expansion, suggests continued revenue growth and margin improvement as scale efficiencies are realized.
Rapid growth in YouTube Shorts and expanding YouTube subscription offerings are diversifying revenue streams and boosting monetization, which should drive both top-line growth and incremental improvements in net margins as premium content and subscriptions scale.
Continued momentum in global internet penetration, smartphone adoption, and emerging market engagement (e.g., Lens, Circle to Search, virtual try-on) is enlarging Alphabet's addressable market and supporting scalable ad and subscription revenue expansion.
Alphabet's significant investment in custom AI hardware (TPUs), software optimization, and R&D is expected to further improve operating leverage, translating sustained innovation leadership into higher productivity, operating margins, and long-term earnings growth.

Alphabet Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Alphabet's revenue will grow by 11.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 31.1% today to 28.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $148.4 billion (and earnings per share of $12.81) by about September 2028, up from $115.6 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $126.4 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.9x on those 2028 earnings, down from 25.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 17.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.2% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Alphabet Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Alphabet's record-high capital expenditures-forecasted to reach $85 billion in 2025 and likely to increase into 2026-will place sustained pressure on net margins and earnings due to accelerating depreciation and infrastructure costs, creating long-term risk if revenue growth does not keep pace.
Despite robust growth in Search and YouTube, Alphabet remains highly dependent on advertising revenues from these sources, and any shift in consumer behavior toward alternative platforms (such as VR, AR, decentralized social, or privacy-centric apps) or slowing ad market growth could reduce revenue and compress profitability.
Increasing legal and regulatory pressures-including a $1.4 billion legal settlement this quarter, ongoing antitrust scrutiny globally, and tightening data privacy laws-pose ongoing risks to Alphabet's core business models, potentially forcing structural changes that could lower market share and long-term earnings power.
Alphabet's substantial investments in "Other Bets" businesses, notably Waymo and experimental hardware (e.g., AI-enabled glasses), continue to generate significant operating losses without a clear path to material profitability, potentially eroding group net margins if these efforts fail to scale commercially.
Elevated competition in both digital advertising (from platforms like Amazon, TikTok, and retail media networks) and cloud (from AWS, Azure, and open-source AI providers), coupled with industry trends such as increased ad blocking and a shift to zero-click/AI-overview search responses, could erode Alphabet's ad pricing power and reduce core revenue and earnings growth over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $231.48 for Alphabet based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $300.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $166.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $512.6 billion, earnings will come to $148.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
Given the current share price of $239.63, the analyst price target of $231.48 is 3.5% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.