Last Update 13 Dec 25

CRTO: Retail Media Momentum Will Drive Share Upside Through 2026

Analysts modestly raised their price targets on Criteo, with recent moves to about $29 and $42 per share, citing solid Q3 results, continued retail media growth, and supportive read throughs from broader ad tech M&A, despite near term softness in Q4 guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Street research following the Q3 print reflects a generally constructive stance on Criteo, with moderate target price increases and a focus on the durability of its retail media growth, tempered by near term execution risks.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that Q3 net revenue and EBITDA exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in management execution and supporting higher valuation multiples.
Retail media remains a key structural growth driver, with recent results viewed as evidence that Criteo is gaining traction in a segment seen as more resilient within the broader ad tech cycle.
Some see the recent private equity takeout activity in adjacent ad tech names as a favorable read through for Criteo, arguing that rising strategic and sponsor interest could underpin downside support for the stock.
Longer term commentary around the 2026 run rate leads bullish analysts to view current near term pressures as more cyclical than structural, suggesting room for upside as growth normalizes.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to softer Q4 guidance as a sign that the near term demand environment and client ramp dynamics could weigh on revenue growth and limit multiple expansion in the short term.
Slower than expected onboarding and ramp of certain new clients is viewed as an execution risk, raising questions about the timing of retail media contribution to overall growth.
The presence of Neutral ratings, including from large houses like JPMorgan, reflects lingering concern that recent positive catalysts may already be reflected in current valuation.
Comparisons with peers benefiting from M and A activity lead some cautious investors to argue that while the read through is supportive, it does not fully offset operational uncertainties over the coming quarters.

What's in the News

Xnurta launched an integration with the Criteo Retail Media API, allowing advertisers to create, manage, and optimize campaigns across Criteo's 225 retail networks from a single AI powered platform. Features include unified reporting, enhanced bulk management, and rule based automation. The integration is currently in closed beta, with broader rollout expected later this year (Key Developments).
Criteo and DoorDash entered a new multi year partnership to scale retail media advertising across DoorDash's marketplace. Criteo will act as an extension of DoorDash's U.S. ad sales team and will enable brands and agencies to access DoorDash ad formats and off site channels (Key Developments).
Criteo continued to execute on its share repurchase program, buying back 455,688 shares, or 0.87 percent of shares, for 10.94 million dollars in the third quarter of 2025. This brings total repurchases under the 2021 authorization to 21,259,860 shares, or 37.36 percent of shares, for 687.53 million dollars (Key Developments).
On its third quarter 2025 earnings call, Criteo reiterated that it will pursue acquisitions. The company emphasized a capital allocation framework focused on investing in organic growth, seeking value enhancing M and A, and returning capital to shareholders (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $35.92 per share, indicating no change in the long term intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate edged down slightly from 7.34 percent to about 7.34 percent, reflecting a negligible adjustment in perceived risk.
Revenue Growth Assumption was effectively unchanged at around negative 13.20 percent, suggesting no material revision to top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin remained stable at roughly 11.88 percent, indicating no meaningful update to long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E Multiple was held essentially flat at about 13.74 times, signaling a steady outlook for valuation relative to expected earnings.

Expansion into AI-driven ad targeting, Retail and Commerce Media, and strategic partnerships is boosting platform reach and strengthening Criteo's ability to capture rising digital ad spend.
Strong privacy-compliant data assets, full-funnel cross-channel capabilities, and disciplined capital allocation position Criteo for enhanced profitability and shareholder returns.
Heavy competition, uncertain AI monetization, client risks, sluggish growth in newer segments, and rising operational costs threaten future revenue and sustained earnings expansion.

Catalysts

About Criteo

A technology company, provides marketing and monetization services and infrastructure on the open internet in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid adoption of AI-powered ad targeting and the development of Agentic AI solutions leveraging Criteo's structured commerce data is expected to boost campaign performance and unlock new monetization channels-supporting both revenue growth and potential margin expansion as productized, automated offerings gain scale.
Accelerating investments and product rollouts in Retail Media and Commerce Media (such as auction-based display and on-site video), along with strategic partnerships (WPP, dentsu, Mirakl, Microsoft), are broadening Criteo's platform reach and enabling share gains-positioning the company to capture a larger slice of the fast-growing digital ad spend and drive top-line growth.
The market-wide transition toward privacy-safe, first-party data-driven advertising, as third-party cookies are phased out, puts Criteo's commerce dataset and AI-powered audience tools at the center of demand from retailers and brands seeking compliant, high-performing ad solutions-potentially enhancing net margins as Criteo increases its market differentiation.
The increasing shift of advertiser budgets into full-funnel, cross-channel campaigns (including CTV and social) enables Criteo to tap into higher-growth segments and win incremental spend from agencies and brand clients, likely driving both revenue acceleration and margin improvement due to greater platform scale and efficiency.
Ongoing share buybacks and disciplined capital allocation-enabled by strong cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet-are expected to support earnings per share growth, providing additional upside for shareholders even in periods of moderate revenue expansion.

Criteo Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Criteo's revenue will decrease by 19.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.0% today to 14.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $147.8 million (and earnings per share of $2.87) by about September 2028, up from $136.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from 8.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Media industry at 20.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.17% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.28%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Criteo Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Uncertainty in monetizing Agentic AI and AI-driven commerce, as leading large language model (LLM) vendors have not determined commercial models, creating visibility risk around future revenue streams from AI agent-based advertising in the long term.
Competition and market share pressures from tech giants (such as Amazon, Google, and Meta) with entrenched first-party data assets and broader platform control, which could constrain Criteo's ability to scale innovations like Retail Media and AI-driven solutions, ultimately impacting revenue growth and margins.
Client concentration risk and recent data showing stagnant overall activated media spend due to lower ad tech trading and reduced spend from certain large clients, highlighting ongoing vulnerability if Criteo cannot revitalize top-line growth-affecting both revenue and net margins.
Slow and uncertain ramp-up for key growth areas (Retail Media, programmatic display, CTV, and newer partnerships), combined with the challenge of onboarding new retailers and brands at scale, may result in lower-than-anticipated long-term revenue acceleration and operational leverage.
Rising investment needs in AI, engineering, and compliance amid intensifying competition for talent; if these expenses are not matched by sustained increases in gross profit, margin expansion and long-term earnings growth may be at risk.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $38.167 for Criteo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $51.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.0 billion, earnings will come to $147.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
Given the current share price of $23.13, the analyst price target of $38.17 is 39.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

CRTO: Share Repurchases And Retail Media Partnerships Will Drive Outperformance Ahead