CRTO: Retail Media Momentum Will Drive Share Upside Through 2026

Analysts modestly raised their price targets on Criteo, with recent moves to about $29 and $42 per share, citing solid Q3 results, continued retail media growth, and supportive read throughs from broader ad tech M&A, despite near term softness in Q4 guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Street research following the Q3 print reflects a generally constructive stance on Criteo, with moderate target price increases and a focus on the durability of its retail media growth, tempered by near term execution risks.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that Q3 net revenue and EBITDA exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in management execution and supporting higher valuation multiples.
• Retail media remains a key structural growth driver, with recent results viewed as evidence that Criteo is gaining traction in a segment seen as more resilient within the broader ad tech cycle.
• Some see the recent private equity takeout activity in adjacent ad tech names as a favorable read through for Criteo, arguing that rising strategic and sponsor interest could underpin downside support for the stock.
• Longer term commentary around the 2026 run rate leads bullish analysts to view current near term pressures as more cyclical than structural, suggesting room for upside as growth normalizes.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to softer Q4 guidance as a sign that the near term demand environment and client ramp dynamics could weigh on revenue growth and limit multiple expansion in the short term.
• Slower than expected onboarding and ramp of certain new clients is viewed as an execution risk, raising questions about the timing of retail media contribution to overall growth.
• The presence of Neutral ratings, including from large houses like JPMorgan, reflects lingering concern that recent positive catalysts may already be reflected in current valuation.
• Comparisons with peers benefiting from M and A activity lead some cautious investors to argue that while the read through is supportive, it does not fully offset operational uncertainties over the coming quarters.

What's in the News

• Xnurta launched an integration with the Criteo Retail Media API, allowing advertisers to create, manage, and optimize campaigns across Criteo's 225 retail networks from a single AI powered platform. Features include unified reporting, enhanced bulk management, and rule based automation. The integration is currently in closed beta, with broader rollout expected later this year (Key Developments).
• Criteo and DoorDash entered a new multi year partnership to scale retail media advertising across DoorDash's marketplace. Criteo will act as an extension of DoorDash's U.S. ad sales team and will enable brands and agencies to access DoorDash ad formats and off site channels (Key Developments).
• Criteo continued to execute on its share repurchase program, buying back 455,688 shares, or 0.87 percent of shares, for 10.94 million dollars in the third quarter of 2025. This brings total repurchases under the 2021 authorization to 21,259,860 shares, or 37.36 percent of shares, for 687.53 million dollars (Key Developments).
• On its third quarter 2025 earnings call, Criteo reiterated that it will pursue acquisitions. The company emphasized a capital allocation framework focused on investing in organic growth, seeking value enhancing M and A, and returning capital to shareholders (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $35.92 per share, indicating no change in the long term intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate edged down slightly from 7.34 percent to about 7.34 percent, reflecting a negligible adjustment in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth Assumption was effectively unchanged at around negative 13.20 percent, suggesting no material revision to top line expectations.
• Net Profit Margin remained stable at roughly 11.88 percent, indicating no meaningful update to long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E Multiple was held essentially flat at about 13.74 times, signaling a steady outlook for valuation relative to expected earnings.