Bunker Hill Mine: A Case For $5 Per Share by 2030

Below is a comprehensive market analysis of Bunker Hill Mining Corp. (OTCPK:BHLL), focusing on the Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE), share structure, large investors, catalysts, value versus price, and a 5-year forecast assuming silver prices at $100/oz, and 9% annual inflation. This analysis also considers the local area and existing infrastructure in the Silver Valley, Idaho.

1. Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE)

Bunker Hill Mining Corp. focuses on exploring and developing zinc, lead, and silver ores at its flagship asset, the 100%-owned Bunker Hill Mine in the Silver Valley, Idaho. The most recent Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) was updated in 2022 and reported by the company as follows (based on available data from company reports and industry sources):

• Indicated Resources:
  • 5.4 million tonnes grading 5.3% zinc, 2.6% lead, and 104 g/t silver (approximately 3.35 oz/t silver).
  • Contained metal: ~287,000 tonnes zinc, ~140,000 tonnes lead, and ~18.1 million ounces silver.
• Inferred Resources:
  • 5.6 million tonnes grading 5.6% zinc, 2.8% lead, and 115 g/t silver (approximately 3.69 oz/t silver).
  • Contained metal: ~314,000 tonnes zinc, ~157,000 tonnes lead, and ~20.7 million ounces silver.

Key Notes:

• The MRE is based on historical data and recent drilling, with high-grade zinc-lead-silver mineralization near existing underground infrastructure, reducing development costs.
• The company’s 2024 exploration program aims to expand and convert inferred resources to indicated, with recent drilling intersecting high-grade zinc-lead-silver mineralization (e.g., December 2023 update reported high-grade intercepts adjacent to existing infrastructure).
• The MRE does not include gold, as the Bunker Hill Mine is primarily a zinc-lead-silver deposit. However, the assumed gold price of $4,500/oz in the forecast will be considered for comparative valuation purposes in the industry context.

2. Share Structure

As of the latest available data (March 2025), Bunker Hill Mining Corp.’s share structure is as follows:

• Shares Outstanding: 349.7 million.
• Market Capitalization: $97.01 million (based on a stock price of ~$0.085 as of March 2025).
• Fully Diluted Shares: Approximately 400 million (including warrants and options, estimated from recent funding rounds and company disclosures).
• Recent Dilution: Shareholders have experienced significant dilution over the past year due to multiple funding rounds, including CAD 38.06 million from Teck Resources Limited in June 2024 and CAD 86.22 million in March 2024. This dilution has contributed to a -23.8% 1-year share price performance.

Analysis:

• The high number of shares outstanding and recent dilution are risks for investors, as they reduce per-share value. However, the funding has strengthened the company’s cash position, supporting mine restart and exploration activities.
• The share structure is typical for a junior mining company raising capital to advance a project toward production.

3. Large Investors

Bunker Hill Mining Corp. has limited institutional ownership, which is common for junior miners trading on the OTC market:

• Institutional Ownership: As of the latest data, there are 0 institutional owners filing 13D/G or 13F forms with the SEC, indicating minimal institutional interest.
• Significant Investor: Teck Resources Limited, a major Canadian mining company, has been a key investor, providing CAD 38.06 million in June 2024 and CAD 86.22 million in March 2024. Teck’s involvement suggests confidence in the project’s potential, given their expertise in base metals and proximity to the Silver Valley.
• Insider Ownership: Specific insider ownership details are not publicly disclosed in the provided data, but management and board members (e.g., CEO Sam Ash) are likely to hold shares or options, aligning their interests with shareholders.

4. Eric Sprott's Ownership in Bunker Hill Mining Corp.

• Overview: Eric Sprott is a well-known Canadian mining financier and investor with a history of significant investments in junior mining companies, particularly in the precious and base metals sectors. His involvement is often seen as a positive signal by investors due to his track record and expertise in the mining industry. The following analysis explores Eric Sprott’s ownership in Bunker Hill Mining Corp. (OTCPK:BHLL), leveraging available data to provide clarity on his stake and influence.Eric Sprott’s Ownership:
  • Direct Ownership: There is no definitive evidence from the provided sources or recent company filings (up to August 2025) that Eric Sprott personally holds a direct equity stake in Bunker Hill Mining Corp. as an individual investor. No SEDAR+ or EDGAR filings explicitly name Eric Sprott as a shareholder with a significant position (e.g., >5% ownership requiring disclosure under Canadian or U.S. securities regulations).
  • Sprott Private Resource Streaming & Royalty Corp. (Sprott Streaming): Eric Sprott is closely associated with Sprott Inc., a global investment firm specializing in precious metals and mining. Sprott Private Resource Streaming & Royalty Corp., an affiliate of Sprott Inc., is a major investor in Bunker Hill Mining Corp. and is considered a "Control Person" due to its significant ownership and influence. According to a June 2025 news release, Sprott Streaming holds approximately 29.6% of outstanding common shares, with the potential to reach 39.1% on a fully diluted basis (including convertible securities like debentures and warrants).
    • Details of Sprott Streaming’s Investment:
      • Sprott Streaming participated in a $41.2 million capital restructuring in June 2025, which included $26.7 million in new equity and $14.5 million in debt, royalty, and property obligation settlements through equity conversions.
      • The transaction involved issuing 252,215,751 units at C$0.15 per unit, significantly increasing Sprott Streaming’s stake.
      • Sprott Streaming’s $4 million metals purchase deposit was exchanged for 200 million common shares, $4 million in Series 3 convertible debentures, and a 1.65% life-of-mine gross revenue royalty. Additionally, $6.7 million in unpaid interest and principal from a debt facility was settled with 63.7 million common shares.
      • Sprott Streaming’s senior secured loan was reduced from $21 million to $15 million, with interest rates on Series 1 and Series 2 convertible debentures lowered from 7.5% to 5.0% and 10.5% to 5.0%, respectively. The conversion price was adjusted to C$0.15 per share.
    • Influence: As a "Control Person," Sprott Streaming has the right to appoint one board nominee or observer, giving it significant influence over Bunker Hill’s strategic decisions.
  • Eric Sprott’s Connection to Sprott Streaming: While Eric Sprott is a prominent figure associated with Sprott Inc., he is not explicitly listed as the direct owner of Sprott Streaming’s shares in Bunker Hill. However, his influence within the Sprott organization and his reputation as a mining investor suggest he may have indirect involvement through Sprott Streaming’s holdings. No specific attribution of Sprott Streaming’s shares to Eric Sprott personally is available in the provided data.
  Other Relevant Context:
  • Sprott IS directly involved in "America's Gold & Siler NYSE:USAS". Their Gallena Complex which he has appointed a new man to turn around is a mere 1 km away from the Bunker Hill Mine. Something I find hard to explain as a coincidence.
  • Sprott Streaming’s Ongoing Support: Sprott Streaming has provided significant financing to Bunker Hill, including a $21 million senior secured credit facility (Standby Facility), with tranches advanced in December 2024 ($5 million), January 2025 ($5 million), and February 2025 ($6 million). Additionally, a royalty agreement dated June 23, 2023, was amended in December 2024 to include additional claims, reinforcing Sprott Streaming’s long-term commitment to the project.
  • Market Sentiment: Sprott Streaming’s involvement, often linked to Eric Sprott’s reputation, is viewed positively by investors. Sprott’s financing is a critical factor in advancing Bunker Hill’s mine restart, pointed out in comments such as “Sprott Streaming’s crucial and consistent support” from CEO Sam Ash.
  Analysis:
  • No Direct Evidence of Eric Sprott’s Personal Ownership: While Eric Sprott is a prominent figure in the mining investment space, there is no direct evidence in the provided sources or recent company disclosures that he personally owns shares in Bunker Hill Mining Corp. His influence is primarily through Sprott Private Resource Streaming & Royalty Corp., which holds a substantial 29.6% to 39.1% stake.
  • Sprott Streaming’s Role: Sprott Streaming’s significant ownership and control status make it a key player in Bunker Hill’s future. The firm’s financial support (equity, debt, and royalty agreements) is critical for the mine restart, and its board representation enhances its influence over corporate governance.
  • Implications for Investors: Eric Sprott’s association with Sprott Streaming adds credibility to Bunker Hill’s project, as his name is synonymous with successful mining investments. However, investors should note that Sprott Streaming’s large stake (and potential for further dilution through convertible debentures) could impact share price dynamics.
  • Potential for Future Involvement: Given Eric Sprott’s active insider trading in other mining companies (e.g., Discovery Silver, Blackrock Silver), it’s possible he could acquire a personal stake in BHLL in the future, especially if the mine restart progresses successfully or commodity prices (e.g., silver at $100/oz) drive increased interest. However, no such transactions have been reported as of August 2025.
  5-Year Forecast Context:
  • The original 5-year forecast assumed silver at $100/oz, zinc at $4,000/tonne, and lead at $3,200/tonne by 2030, with production starting in late 2025 or early 2026. Sprott Streaming’s ownership and financing support (e.g., $21 million Standby Facility, potential US$150 million US EXIM Bank financing) are critical to achieving this timeline. Their 29.6%–39.1% stake could lead to significant returns if the mine reaches production and metal prices align with projections, but it also means substantial influence over strategic decisions, potentially affecting minority shareholders.
  • The forecast share price of $2.85 (base case) or $5.00 (bull case) by 2030 assumes successful execution. Sprott Streaming’s involvement reduces financing risk but increases dilution risk, which could cap upside for smaller investors unless offset by strong operational performance.
  Conclusion: Eric Sprott does not appear to have a direct, publicly disclosed ownership stake in Bunker Hill Mining Corp. as of August 2025. However, Sprott Private Resource Streaming & Royalty Corp., closely associated with Sprott, holds a significant 29.6% (potentially 39.1% fully diluted) stake, making it a "Control Person" with board representation and substantial influence. This investment reflects confidence in Bunker Hill’s zinc-lead-silver project, particularly in the context of rising commodity prices and the mine’s restart potential. Investors should monitor Sprott Streaming’s actions and any future insider filings for potential personal investments by Eric Sprott, as his involvement could further signal bullish sentiment.other major mining investors

Analysis:

• Teck Resources’ investment is a strong vote of confidence, as it provides not only capital but also potential technical and operational support. However, the lack of broader institutional ownership may reflect the company’s early-stage status and OTC listing, which limits visibility among larger funds.

5. Catalysts

Several catalysts could drive Bunker Hill’s value in the near and medium term:

1. Mine Restart Progress:
   • Bunker Hill is advancing the restart of its mine, with construction of a processing plant underway and a production timeline targeting late 2025 or early 2026. Recent updates (October 2023 and December 2023) highlight progress on infrastructure and resource expansion drilling.
   • Successful restart could transform BHLL from an exploration company to a producer, significantly de-risking the investment and boosting share price.
2. Resource Expansion:
   • The 2024 underground exploration program has intersected high-grade zinc-lead-silver mineralization near existing infrastructure, potentially increasing the MRE and extending mine life.
   • Conversion of inferred resources to indicated resources could enhance project economics and attract investor interest.
3. Commodity Price Surge:
   • Rising silver prices ($100/oz assumed) and gold prices ($4,500/oz assumed) would significantly improve project economics, given the high silver content in the deposit. Zinc and lead prices, while not specified, are also likely to benefit from inflation and industrial demand.
   • Silver at $100/oz would increase the value of BHLL’s 38.8 million ounces (indicated + inferred) to ~$3.88 billion in situ, though this is heavily discounted due to extraction and processing costs.
4. Strategic Partnerships:
   • Teck Resources’ funding and potential for further collaboration (e.g., offtake agreements or technical support) could accelerate development and reduce costs.
5. Local Infrastructure:
   • The Bunker Hill Mine benefits from existing underground infrastructure in the Silver Valley, a historically significant mining district with established roads, power, and rail access. This reduces capital expenditure compared to greenfield projects.
   • Proximity to skilled labor and mining services in Kellogg, Idaho, further lowers operational risks.
6. Market Sentiment:
   • Positive sentiment toward precious and base metals, driven by inflation (9% assumed), geopolitical uncertainty, and industrial demand for zinc and lead, could boost junior miners like BHLL.

Risks to Catalysts:

• Delays in mine restart or cost overruns could erode investor confidence.
• Continued shareholder dilution to fund operations may pressure the share price.
• Regulatory or environmental challenges in Idaho could impact timelines.

6. Value vs. Price

Current Price: $0.085 (as of March 2025), with a market cap of $97.01 million.

Valuation Analysis:

• Book Value: The latest twelve-month book value per share is -$0.13, indicating that the company’s liabilities exceed its assets, a common scenario for pre-revenue miners.
• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: -47.9x, reflecting negative earnings (-$1.74 million TTM) and no revenue.
• Snowflake Analysis: Simply Wall St deems BHLL overvalued based on fundamentals, citing moderate risk, shareholder dilution, low revenue (<$1 million), and less than 1 year of cash runway.
• Net Asset Value (NAV): A rough estimate of the in-situ value of the MRE (using current commodity prices) suggests:
  • Silver: 38.8 million ounces × $30/oz (current price) = ~$1.16 billion.
  • Zinc: 601,000 tonnes × $2,500/tonne (assumed) = ~$1.5 billion.
  • Lead: 297,000 tonnes × $2,000/tonne (assumed) = ~$594 million.
  • Total In-Situ Value: ~$3.25 billion (undiscounted, pre-extraction).
  • After applying a conservative 5% recovery discount (accounting for mining, processing, and economic factors), the NAV could be ~$162.5 million, higher than the current market cap of $97.01 million, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its resource potential. However, this does not account for operational risks or dilution.

Value vs. Price Conclusion:

• At $0.085, BHLL appears undervalued relative to its resource base, especially with rising commodity prices. However, the negative book value, lack of revenue, and dilution risk justify the low price. The market is pricing in significant execution risk, but successful mine restart and higher metal prices could close the value-price gap.

7. 5-Year Forecast (2025–2030)Assumptions:

• Silver Price: $100/oz by 2030 (from ~$30/oz in 2025, implying a 27.2% CAGR).
• Zinc and Lead Prices: Assume 9% annual inflation, increasing zinc from $2,500/tonne to ~$4,000/tonne and lead from $2,000/tonne to ~$3,200/tonne by 2030.
• Inflation: 9% annually, impacting operating costs and capital expenditures.
• Production: Assume mine restart by late 2025, with production ramp-up to ~50,000 tonnes/year zinc, 25,000 tonnes/year lead, and 1.5 million ounces/year silver by 2027 (based on company guidance and MRE).
• Share Structure: Assume modest dilution to 450 million shares by 2030 due to additional funding.
• Discount Rate: 10% (standard for mining projects).

Forecasted Financials:

• Revenue (2030):
  • Zinc: 50,000 tonnes × $4,000/tonne = $200 million.
  • Lead: 25,000 tonnes × $3,200/tonne = $80 million.
  • Silver: 1.5 million ounces × $100/oz = $150 million.
  • Total Revenue: ~$430 million annually.
• Operating Costs: Assume $250 million/year (inflated from current estimates of ~$150 million due to 9% inflation).
• Net Income: Assume 20% net margin (optimistic for a producing mine) = ~$86 million/year.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $86 million ÷ 450 million shares = ~$0.19.

Valuation (2030):

• P/E-Based Valuation: Assume a P/E ratio of 15 (typical for junior producers). EPS of $0.19 × 15 = $2.85/share.
• Market Cap: $2.85 × 450 million shares = $1.28 billion.
• NAV-Based Valuation: Updated in-situ value with $100/oz silver, $4,000/tonne zinc, and $3,200/tonne lead:
  • Silver: 38.8 million ounces × $100/oz = $3.88 billion.
  • Zinc: 601,000 tonnes × $4,000/tonne = $2.4 billion.
  • Lead: 297,000 tonnes × $3,200/tonne = $950 million.
  • Total In-Situ Value: ~$7.23 billion. Discounted at 5% recovery = ~$361.5 million.
  • Adjusting for production costs and inflation, NAV could reach ~$500 million by 2030.

Share Price Forecast:

• Base Case: $2.85/share (P/E-based, assuming successful production).
• Bull Case: $5.00/share (if resource expansion adds 50% to MRE and market sentiment drives a higher P/E of 25).
• Bear Case: $0.50/share (if mine restart is delayed, costs overrun, or metal prices underperform).

Local Area and Infrastructure:

• The Silver Valley’s established infrastructure (roads, rail, power, and proximity to Coeur d’Alene) reduces capex and opex compared to remote projects. Existing underground workings at Bunker Hill lower development costs, enabling faster production ramp-up.
• The region’s mining history provides access to skilled labor and regulatory familiarity, though environmental compliance remains a risk.

Inflation Impact:

• 9% annual inflation increases operating costs by ~53% over 5 years (compounded). However, rising metal prices ($100/oz silver, $4,000/tonne zinc, $3,200/tonne lead) more than offset this, as revenue scales with commodity prices.

8. Conclusion

• MRE: Bunker Hill’s 38.8 million ounces of silver, 601,000 tonnes of zinc, and 297,000 tonnes of lead provide a robust resource base, with exploration upside from ongoing drilling.
• Share Structure: 349.7 million shares outstanding, with recent dilution a concern but necessary for funding mine restart.
• Large Investors: Teck Resources’ significant investment is a positive signal, though broader institutional interest is lacking.
• Catalysts: Mine restart, resource expansion, and rising metal prices are key drivers. Local infrastructure enhances feasibility.
• Value vs. Price: At $0.085, BHLL is undervalued relative to its resource potential but reflects execution risks and dilution.
• 5-Year Forecast: With silver at $100/oz, zinc at $4,000/tonne, lead at $3,200/tonne, and successful production, the stock could reach $2.85/share (base case) by 2030, implying a 33x return from current levels. Bull case: $5.00/share; bear case: $0.50/share.

Recommendation:

• Speculative Buy for risk-tolerant investors. The high upside potential (driven by commodity prices and mine restart) is tempered by execution risks, dilution, and negative earnings. Monitor progress on the mine restart and exploration results in 2025–2026.
• This mine lives in the shadow of America's Gold and Silver, much the same as 1911 Gold Corp lives in the shadow of West Red Lake Gold. One on the other side of town, the other the opposite side of the lake. I believe, as we move into 2026 Bunker Hill will move into production and begin to gain attention. Also they are paying off their debts, well funded and backed by Tek and Sprott, neither of which will allow this mine to fail (imho).
• I am not a shareholder yet but when my holding in Silver Storm Mining (TSX:SVRS) has doubled, I plan to sell 50% (trading 50% of the upside for 100% of the downside) and redeploy those funds into another silver miner. Bunker Hill is high on my list.

Sources:

• Simply Wall St
• Investing.com
• Finbox.com
• Fintel.io
• Bunker Hill Mining Corp. company announcements and reports (2023–2025).Disclaimer: This analysis involves speculative assumptions about future commodity prices and project execution. Actual results may differ significantly. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.