Circular Recycling And Renewable Feedstock Investments Will Redefine Global Chemicals

Key Takeaways

• Strategic focus on recycling, sustainable plastics, and portfolio shifts toward low-cost regions positions the company for improved margins, resilient earnings, and revenue growth.
  
• Leadership in proprietary recycling technology and industry partnerships strengthens product differentiation, pricing power, and long-term returns amid rising sustainability demands.
  
• Weak market conditions, regulatory shifts, and delayed investment in sustainable products threaten competitive positioning, earnings stability, and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

Operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally.

• LyondellBasell's strategic investments in circular and advanced recycling (MoReTec-1 and plans for MoReTec-2, plus expanding renewable feedstock capacity in Europe) position the company to benefit from rising regulatory and consumer demand for recycled and sustainable plastics, improving product mix and supporting higher net margins and long-term revenue growth.
  
• The company is rebalancing its portfolio toward low-cost, high-growth regions (notably the U.S. and Middle East) while divesting European assets and focusing investment on cost-advantaged operations, underpinning stronger EBITDA margins and more resilient earnings through industry cycles.
  
• Ongoing portfolio optimization-through discipline in capital allocation, deferred capital projects (like Flex-2), targeted cost reductions, and working capital improvements-is projected to generate at least $1.1 billion incremental cash flow by 2026, which will strengthen free cash flow and support dividends even during downturns.
  
• LyondellBasell is well positioned to capture growing demand in packaging, infrastructure, and automotive markets, especially as global urbanization and emerging market consumption drive long-term increases in polymer and chemical volumes, supporting top-line revenue and asset utilization.
  
• The company's leadership in proprietary recycling technology and partnerships with brand owners aligns it to capitalize on tightening regulatory frameworks and industry focus on the circular economy, differentiating its product offering and providing future pricing power, which is likely to enhance long-term ROIC and earnings.

LyondellBasell Industries Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming LyondellBasell Industries's revenue will decrease by 9.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 0.4% today to 7.7% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.2 billion (and earnings per share of $6.84) by about September 2028, up from $150.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.8 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.3 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.0x on those 2028 earnings, down from 116.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Chemicals industry at 25.9x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.96% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.85%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

LyondellBasell Industries Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Prolonged cyclical downturn in the petrochemical industry, coupled with continued global overcapacity (especially in polyethylene and propylene), risks sustained revenue and margin compression as demand growth lags new capacity additions, impacting long-term earnings growth.
  
• Delays or postponements of major growth investments (such as Flex-2 and MoReTec-2) in response to weak market conditions and focus on conserving cash may result in underinvestment, limiting LyondellBasell's future competitive positioning in circular/sustainable products and risking revenue stagnation or market share loss.
  
• Heavy dependence on fossil-derived feedstocks and slow progress in replacing or supplementing them with circular or renewable alternatives exposes LYB to regulatory risks, carbon costs, and potential erosion of net margins due to increasing decarbonization policies and requirements.
  
• Ongoing trade tensions, evolving tariffs, and volatile trade policy landscapes (including in key export markets like China and Europe) threaten export opportunities, create cost uncertainty, and may fragment global supply chains, negatively impacting revenues and profitability.
  
• Heightened regulatory and consumer pressure for recycling, reduction of single-use plastics, and the rise of competing bio-based materials may suppress long-term demand for LYB's core petrochemical products, compressing volumes, pricing power, and long-term net earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $61.278 for LyondellBasell Industries based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $90.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $44.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $29.2 billion, earnings will come to $2.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
• Given the current share price of $54.39, the analyst price target of $61.28 is 11.2% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.