Update shared on24 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.72%Analysts have lowered LyondellBasell’s price target due to sustained oversupply, weak core demand, and pressured margins—particularly in polyethylene—while increased market multiples provide only partial support, resulting in a new consensus fair value of $59.61.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite continued headwinds from elevated supply and weak demand in core commodity markets, limiting upside potential.
- Bullish analysts attribute recent price target raises to a broader market multiple recovery, lifting valuation benchmarks across the chemicals sector.
- Muted U.S. integrated polyethylene margins are a concern for the near-term earnings outlook, particularly as consensus forecasts may be too optimistic.
- A temporary pause in tariffs boosted demand in the short term, but this may result in a demand slowdown by year-end as preemptive orders abate.
- The sector's defensive and specialty names are favored in the current environment, with LyondellBasell seen as more exposed to cyclical risks than peers.
What's in the News
- LyondellBasell Industries is among European chemical companies facing turmoil due to U.S. import tariffs, which are disrupting global trade and prompting customers to delay orders (Reuters).
- Between April 1 and May 23, 2025, LyondellBasell repurchased 1,552,339 shares for $90.18 million, representing 0.48% of shares outstanding (Key Developments).
- The recent buybacks complete the company’s repurchase of 5,274,335 shares worth $398.28 million (1.63% of shares outstanding) under its 2024 program (Key Developments).
- Market uncertainty from U.S. tariffs could weigh on recovery prospects for the chemicals sector, impacting companies like LyondellBasell (Reuters).
- The share repurchase activity signals continued shareholder returns but comes amid challenging macroeconomic and trade backdrop (Reuters; Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for LyondellBasell Industries
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $61.28 to $59.61.
- The Net Profit Margin for LyondellBasell Industries has significantly fallen from 7.67% to 6.89%.
- The Future P/E for LyondellBasell Industries has risen from 11.02x to 12.06x.
Disclaimer
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