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CENX: Recent Tariff Expansions And China Demand Will Shape Aluminum Outlook

Published
14 Sep 24
Updated
01 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
35.4%
7D
-2.9%

Author's Valuation

US$30.677.1% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 01 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 3.16%

Analysts have reduced Century Aluminum’s fair value estimate by $1.00 to $30.67 per share, citing shifting aluminum price trends, slightly higher discount rates, and recent research highlighting both supportive tariffs as well as stronger-than-expected demand in China. Analyst Commentary Industry experts have weighed in on Century Aluminum’s outlook, leading to new research coverage and updated valuations.

Shared on 18 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 9.20%

Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum to $31.67 from $29, citing stronger aluminum prices and improved profit margin forecasts as key drivers for the update. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Century Aluminum reflect evolving perspectives on the company’s future, with notable shifts in analyst sentiment following improved market conditions for aluminum and company-specific advantages.

Shared on 03 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 7.41%

Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum from $27 to $29 per share. They cite improved revenue growth outlook and favorable market updates as key factors behind the revision.

Shared on 10 Sep 25

Fair value Increased 5.88%

Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion

The upward revision in Century Aluminum's price target reflects stronger fundamentals, with analysts now expecting both higher revenue growth and improved net profit margins, resulting in a new consensus fair value of $27.00. What's in the News Canada is expected to maintain its 25% import tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum products, which directly impacts Century Aluminum (CENX) (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).

Shared on 08 Aug 25

Fair value Increased 13%

Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion

The upward revision in Century Aluminum’s price target reflects stronger profitability, as evidenced by the notable improvement in net profit margin and a more attractive forward P/E, raising the fair value estimate from $22.50 to $25.50. What's in the News Century Aluminum will restart over 50,000MT of idled production at its Mt. Holly, SC smelter, investing $50 million and creating 100+ new jobs.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Decreased 8.39%

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

Shared on 23 Apr 25

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 7.88%

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 2.59%

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 8.5% to 6.2%, decreased profit margin from 15.8% to 11.5% and increased future PE multiple from 6.6x to 9.5x.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Increased 9.57%

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 11 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 11%

DOE Grant And Jamalco Expansion Will Support Future Aluminum Output

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from 9.6% to 8.5%, increased profit margin from 9.6% to 15.8% and decreased future PE multiple from 10.7x to 6.4x.