Narratives are currently in beta
My main narrative for KO:
- Strong brands
- Well established distribution network (starting from the source (water) over botteling and delivery to selling points) with an "all world" footprint
- To grow revenue KO now sells also Coffee (Costa) and other beverages over the existing network. The idea is to have the beverage for every daytime, so the offering and with that revenue will still increase
- To optimize finance (less investments) botteling in several countries is outsourced as a franchise
- Strong growth in Latin Amerika
But:
- I miss innovations or trend setting
- Basically they purchase niche players or lower Top5 brands and scale them through their distribution network
- Or cooperate, in case of Monster beverage
I focus also on:
- ... more equity than debt. Ratio is at 157% (debt/equity). Even if you take cash of nearly $17b into account, you end up at 96%. For me too much debt.
- ... a ROE of about 20%. Past 39%, future 46%. Even if the equity would increase, the ROE would be still good.
I see the following challenges for the management:
- Regular Dividend payment is the main reason for investors, and payout ratio is with about 75% on a high level. So this needs a continously growing business size.
- On the other hand, to reduce debt, they could grow Costa and then sell it with a good benefit. But then a smaller KO with less earnings brings dividend payments at near 100% payout ratio...
- ...and returns would drop, so stock price would also go dwon.
So let's see how long Costa remain part of KO.There are also chances ahead:
- With $17b in cash there is room for acquisition and then scale them up
Finllay:
- KO is still a base investment and easy to handle for dividend investors, since solid dividend payment makes it easy to stay invested during a downturn.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user Tokyo has a position in NYSE:KO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
Coca-Cola
WA
Consensus Narrative from 24 Analysts
All-Weather Strategy And AI Partnerships Will Drive Future Global Expansion
Key Takeaways Coca-Cola's all-weather strategy and digital integration are expected to drive sustainable global top-line growth and revenue improvements. Expansion into alcohol and AI-driven retail partnerships aims to boost scalability and earnings diversification.
View narrativeUS$73.55
FV
15.7% undervalued intrinsic discount3.74%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
62users have followed this narrative
7 days ago author updated this narrative
Coca-Cola
RI
Equity Analyst and Writer
Lack Of Revenue Diversification And Growth Options Will Hurt Valuation Multiple
Key Takeaways Coca-Cola’s PE ratio has risen to the high 20s due to a recent revival in profit growth. However, several non-recurring factors have driven these improvement in margins and growth.
View narrativeUS$54.61
FV
13.6% overvalued intrinsic discount5.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
9users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
8users have followed this narrative
3 months ago author updated this narrative
Coca-Cola
ST
Equity Analyst and Writer
Coca-Cola Can Draw Minor Benefits from Prolonged Economic Uncertainty
Key Takeaways KO can remain a reliable performer in a mature but growing category. Its diversified portfolio of beverages means it can handle shifting beverage preferences Its reduction of debt will help it endure any market volatility, like it has in the past Dividend payout ratio is rising and management will eventually have to address it.
View narrativeUS$64.00
FV
3.1% undervalued intrinsic discount4.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
8users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
5users have followed this narrative
7 months ago author updated this narrative