Food, Beverage & Tobacco U.S. Community
Our community narratives are driven by numbers and valuation.
Food, Beverage & Tobacco U.S. Investing Ideas
THE KINGDOM OF BROWN GOODS: WHY MGPI IS BEING CRUSHED BY INVENTORY & PRIMED FOR RESURRECTION
Originally Posted Dec 5 on the Woodworth Contrarian News Page Brought to you by Quinn Millegan & The Woodworth Contrarian Fund A Deep Dive Into Why the Market Is Pricing MGPI for Permanent Decline When Cyclical Recovery Is Lurking in Plain Sight MGP Ingredient’s factories in Atchison, KS & Lawrenceburg, IN - MGP Ingredients Corporate THE SETUP: MEET THE STOCK THAT FELL 75% AND NOBODY NOTICED MGP Ingredients closed at $24.70 yesterday (with a 3–6% increase intraday today). Two years ago—December 4, 2023—it traded at $91.53.Read more
Willamette Valley Vineyards (WVVI): Not-So-Great Value
A recently shuttered WVVI tasting room in McMinnville, OR (November 2025) Date: November 18th 2025 Analyst: Drew Millegan & the Woodworth Contrarian Fund Originally posted on the Woodworth Contrarian Fund News page: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/willamette-valley-vineyards-wvvi-not-so-great-value Fair Value: Unclear. As an Oregon-based hedge fund, we often get the opportunity to more closely investigate local companies that are otherwise too small to register on most firms’ radars.Read more
Scenario: 2% yearly Rev Growth, 8% Margin and 5% Risk Discount Rate and divestitures unlocking hidden intrinsic value.
Scenario (figures as of 2025-11-11): 2% yearly Revenue Growth, a conservative target. 8% Margin (a signifcant improvement from the current -17.35%, and slightly over the Food average of 7.34%), an aggresive but achievable improvement.Read more
Flowers Foods Pays A Fair Price For Health
Our initial price target for Flower Foods is set at $16.12. As Flower Foods has been crippled with poor earnings and higher margins, a spark in M&A will push the company out of constant stagnation.Read more
Coca-Cola’s Intrinsic Value Set to Rise with Fed Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point cut may appear modest, but for Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), it carries meaningful implications for valuation. As a consumer staples giant with steady free cash flows and a reputation as a dividend aristocrat, KO is highly sensitive to discount rates in long-term models.Read more
Coca-Cola Can Draw Minor Benefits from Prolonged Economic Uncertainty
Key Takeaways Coca-Cola is the leading global brand, and it has endured numerous market downturns with its tested business model. The firm's stability, which includes over six decades of raising its dividend and a share price that is half as volatile as the average market, appeals to a certain investor population.Read more
Fair - Optimistic
Future Efforts: Digitalization: Automation of the supply chain. Investment in data, enabling large-scale digitalization across the entire value chain (from procurement to factory management, including transportation and market placement).Read more
A Top Consumer Staples Compounder and at a Fair Price and Dividend Yield
Catalysts: Stable Demand for Packaged Foods : General Mills operates in the consumer foods sector, which has seen consistent demand for packaged foods. The company’s diverse product portfolio, including ready-to-eat cereals, snacks, and baking mixes, positions it well to benefit from this trend.Read more
Vita Coco Company: Strong Growth Trajectory Driven by Coconut Water Success
Catalysts New product innovation: The beverage market is competitive and constantly evolving. Vita Coco could develop new and innovative beverage products that appeal to consumer trends.Read more
