Asia-Pacific And Greater China Will Unlock Premium Markets

Key Takeaways

• Rapid growth in Asia-Pacific, premium positioning, and DTC expansion are driving margin gains and strengthening recurring revenue streams across underpenetrated brands.
  
• Brand innovation, category expansion, and omnichannel engagement position Amer Sports for multi-year global market share gains and sustained operating margin improvement.
  
• Heavy dependence on a few top brands and expansion plans creates significant risk if growth falters, competition intensifies, or macroeconomic headwinds persist.

Catalysts

Designs, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells sports equipment, apparel, footwear, and accessories in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and the Asia Pacific.

• The company's accelerating expansion in Asia-Pacific and Greater China, supported by rising incomes and increased interest in premium sports and wellness products, is driving substantial revenue growth across brands, particularly Arc'teryx and Salomon, which remain underpenetrated in these fast-growing markets.
  
• Investments in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels-both e-commerce and branded retail stores-are strengthening gross margins and enabling Amer Sports to capture recurring, higher-margin revenue streams, as evidenced by 39% DTC growth and improving operating leverage.
  
• Focus on premium, high-performance and technically innovative products is enabling Amer Sports to command higher average selling prices and successfully implement pricing increases, supporting margin expansion even in the face of potential tariff headwinds.
  
• Significant runway for global brand share gains remains, especially in categories like Salomon sneakers ($1B sales in a $180B global sneaker market) and women's performance apparel, positioning the company for robust multi-year revenue and earnings growth as these categories scale.
  
• Emphasis on digital engagement, community-building, and omni-channel consumer experiences is deepening brand loyalty and broadening Amer Sports' addressable market, which is expected to further accelerate both top-line growth and operating margin expansion over time.

Amer Sports Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Amer Sports's revenue will grow by 14.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.7% today to 9.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $757.5 million (and earnings per share of $1.35) by about August 2028, up from $202.1 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $638 million.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 48.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 104.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Luxury industry at 19.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.54%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Amer Sports Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Heavy reliance on continued outperformance and double-digit growth from flagship brands Arc'teryx and Salomon footwear introduces concentration risk; any slowing momentum, product missteps, or reputational issues could significantly impact overall group revenue and earnings, as these segments are key drivers behind current margin expansion and top-line growth.
  
• The aggressive investments in global store expansion, especially DTC and premium-format stores (e.g., in China and North America), increase execution risk and raise the company's fixed cost base; if forecast demand growth does not materialize or store productivity lags, Amer Sports could face margin compression and lower returns on invested capital.
  
• Macroeconomic uncertainty-including potential further increases in tariffs, ongoing geopolitical risks, and foreign currency fluctuations-may not be fully neutralized by pricing power or mitigation strategies in the long run, which could erode gross margins, particularly if consumer price sensitivity escalates or cost pass-through becomes less effective.
  
• The company's ambitious growth assumptions in Greater China and Asia-Pacific are predicated on robust premium outdoor consumption trends and continued favorable market access; any regulatory tightening, demographic shifts, or macroeconomic slowdowns in these key growth regions could materially affect revenue scalability and future profit growth.
  
• Intense and rising industry competition-from both global sportswear multinationals and digital-native or niche brands-raises long-term risk of market share pressure, ASP erosion, or increased promotional intensity, all of which could structurally limit Amer Sports' ability to sustain current revenue growth rates and ongoing margin improvements.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $41.971 for Amer Sports based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $29.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $8.2 billion, earnings will come to $757.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 48.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
• Given the current share price of $37.92, the analyst price target of $41.97 is 9.7% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.