Trinity Industries

TRN: Revenue Expansion And Lower Margins Will Offset Market Improvements Ahead

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

09 Sep 24

Updated

15 Dec 25

Views

70

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

-19.2%

7D

0.4%

Loading

1Y

-19.2%

7D

0.4%

You can edit this narrative until Dec 16 4:05 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

US$25.511.5% overvalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 15 Dec 25

TRN: Future Share Repurchases Will Likely Fail To Justify Elevated Price

Analysts raised their price target on Trinity Industries slightly to $25.50, reflecting modestly lower perceived risk and stable long term growth and profitability assumptions. What's in the News Raised full year 2025 earnings guidance to a tighter range of $1.55 to $1.70 per share, signaling improving profit expectations and operational visibility (company guidance) Increased the quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share from $0.30, marking seven consecutive years of dividend growth and the 247th straight quarterly payout (company announcement) Completed repurchase of 2,812,467 shares, or about 3.45% of shares outstanding, for $80.47 million under the December 2022 buyback authorization, including 753,924 shares repurchased in the latest quarter (company filing) Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at $25.50 per share, indicating stable long term valuation assumptions.

Shared on 01 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 5.56%

TRN: Future Earnings Guidance And Share Repurchases Will Sustain Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have revised their price target for Trinity Industries downward from $27.00 to $25.50. They cited a more tempered outlook for future revenue growth and valuation multiples.

Shared on 17 Nov 25

TRN: Full-Year EPS Guidance Will Support Stable Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have maintained their price target for Trinity Industries at $27.00. They cite consistent expectations for the company’s fair value and stable underlying financial projections.

Shared on 02 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 5.26%

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Trinity Industries downward from $28.50 to $27.00. This change reflects updated expectations for increased revenue growth, lower profit margins, and a higher projected price-to-earnings ratio.

Shared on 20 Aug 25

Fair value Increased 9.62%

Upward revisions in both Trinity Industries' revenue growth forecasts and net profit margin have driven an increase in the consensus analyst price target from $26.00 to $28.50. What's in the News Trinity Industries provided 2025 EPS guidance of $1.40 to $1.60.

Shared on 23 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 15%

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 7.03%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased revenue growth from -1.1% to -1.4%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 7.10%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 19%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 11 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 7.42%

AnalystConsensusTarget has decreased shares outstanding growth rate from -0.0% to -0.0%.

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

US$25.5

11.5% overvalued

Future estimation in

Growth p.a.

Growth p.a.

%

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

4.30%

Machinery revenue growth rate

0.32%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

9.15%

Calculation

US$141.30m

Earnings '28

x

17.60x

PE Ratio '28

=

US$2.49b

Market Cap '28

US$2.49b

Market Cap '28

/

75.54m

No. shares '28

=

US$32.93

Share Price '28

US$32.93 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 9.16% p.a.

=

US$25.32

Fair Value '25