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TRN: Future Share Repurchases Will Likely Fail To Justify Elevated Price

TRN: Revenue Expansion And Lower Margins Will Offset Market Improvements Ahead

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TRN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 09 Sep 2024

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-19.2%
7D
0.4%

Analysts raised their price target on Trinity Industries slightly to $25.50, reflecting modestly lower perceived risk and stable long term growth and profitability assumptions.

What's in the News

  • Raised full year 2025 earnings guidance to a tighter range of $1.55 to $1.70 per share, signaling improving profit expectations and operational visibility (company guidance)
  • Increased the quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share from $0.30, marking seven consecutive years of dividend growth and the 247th straight quarterly payout (company announcement)
  • Completed repurchase of 2,812,467 shares, or about 3.45% of shares outstanding, for $80.47 million under the December 2022 buyback authorization, including 753,924 shares repurchased in the latest quarter (company filing)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Unchanged at $25.50 per share, indicating stable long term valuation assumptions.
  • Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from 9.21 percent to 9.16 percent, reflecting modestly lower perceived risk in the equity cash flows.
  • Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at about 3.76 percent, suggesting a consistent outlook for top line expansion.
  • Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at approximately 5.81 percent, implying no material revision to long term profitability expectations.
  • Future P/E: Edged down marginally from 17.63x to 17.60x, indicating a very small reduction in the assumed valuation multiple.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.