Last Update 04 Dec 25

XMTR: Expanding Marketplace Network Will Drive Future Share Gains

Analysts modestly raised their price targets on Xometry into a roughly $60 to $75 range, citing stronger than expected Q3 results, accelerating marketplace revenue growth, and growing evidence that the platform is capturing share as it scales its buyer and supplier network.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlighted that Xometry's record Q3 performance across revenue, gross profit, Marketplace gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA supports a higher fundamental valuation framework. The company is seen as executing well against its marketplace strategy, with accelerating revenue trends reinforcing confidence in its long term growth algorithm.

At the same time, some more cautious voices are focusing on the durability of these trends and the implications of the company’s longer term revenue outlook, which they see as a potential constraint on multiple expansion if execution were to slow.

Bullish Takeaways

Upward price target revisions into the $60 to $75 range reflect increased confidence in Xometry’s ability to sustain strong top line growth and margin expansion, supporting a premium growth multiple.
Record Marketplace gross margin and adjusted EBITDA are viewed as evidence that scale efficiencies and pricing discipline are improving the economic engine of the business, reducing risk on the path to sustainable profitability.
Accelerating marketplace revenue growth and continued share gains as the buyer and supplier network expands reinforce the thesis that Xometry can be a category defining platform with meaningful long term upside.
Product enhancements, including broader instant quote coverage and tools such as the Workcenter mobile app, are seen as deepening customer engagement and improving conversion, which could support higher revenue per customer and stickier relationships over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to the "soft" 2026 revenue guidance as a signal that management may be embedding more conservative assumptions on demand or competitive intensity, limiting near term justification for further multiple expansion.
There is caution that recent upside, driven by strong Q3 outperformance, may set a high bar for future quarters, increasing execution risk if growth or margins normalize from record levels.
Some remain concerned that, despite improving profitability metrics, the business still requires sustained high growth and disciplined cost control to fully support current and higher valuation targets.
Questions persist around macro sensitivity and whether current marketplace momentum can fully offset potential slowdowns in customer capital spending, which could introduce volatility into growth trajectories.

What's in the News

Xometry issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of $182 million to $184 million, representing 23% to 24% year over year growth (company guidance).
The company raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $676 million to $678 million, reinforcing expectations for sustained double digit growth (company guidance).
Xometry launched auto quoting for injection molding services in the U.S., cutting the quoting process from days to minutes and extending its AI powered platform capabilities for both prototyping and high volume production (product announcement).
The company released its new Workcenter Mobile App, enabling suppliers to manage job offers, production workflows, and shop performance from their smartphones with real time notifications and on the go data capture (product announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at an implied intrinsic value of approximately 65.44 per share, indicating no adjustment to the core valuation anchor.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 8.09% to 8.14%, reflecting a modest increase in the required return and a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at roughly 19.0% projected annual growth, suggesting stable expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Fallen moderately from about 1.15% to 0.91%, implying somewhat lower profitability assumptions in the updated model.
Future P/E: Risen significantly from approximately 356.5x to 450.9x, indicating a higher valuation multiple being applied to forward earnings expectations.

Expanding digital procurement and AI-driven efficiencies are fueling strong growth, higher margins, and increased operating leverage within the company's core marketplace.
International expansion and supply chain localization trends are attracting larger customers, deepening platform dependence, and broadening opportunities for sustained revenue and margin gains.
Aggressive international expansion, high tech investment, and intensifying competition are pressuring margins and profitability, raising risks to future earnings, market share, and shareholder value.

Catalysts

About Xometry

Operates an artificial intelligence (AI) powered online manufacturing marketplace in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerated adoption of digital platforms for manufacturing procurement-highlighted by growing enterprise engagement, robust increases in active buyers, and technology innovations such as instant quoting, expanded Teamspace, and deeper system integrations-is driving meaningful revenue growth and supporting expectations for continued top-line expansion.
The rapid deployment of AI and machine learning across pricing, supplier selection, and workflow automation is substantially improving efficiency, optimizing gross margin, and providing significant operating leverage, positioning the company for margin expansion and improving EBITDA.
Ongoing trends toward supply chain localization and resiliency are pushing more manufacturers-especially large enterprise customers-to seek flexible, domestic, and diversified sourcing solutions, increasing dependence on Xometry's platform and boosting high-value customer acquisition and revenue per customer.
Xometry's growing network effect, evidenced by its expanding base of buyers and suppliers and increasing share of larger enterprise accounts, is enhancing marketplace liquidity and pricing power, which should drive revenue growth and margin improvement over time.
International expansion, including rapid growth in Europe and successful launches of new enterprise products, is providing additional growth vectors and geographic diversification, supporting sustained revenue growth and long-term earnings potential.

Xometry Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Xometry's revenue will grow by 17.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Xometry will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Xometry's profit margin will increase from -10.2% to the average US Trade Distributors industry of 5.8% in 3 years.
If Xometry's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $57.5 million (and earnings per share of $1.06) by about September 2028, up from $-61.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 56.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -38.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Trade Distributors industry at 23.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.49% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.19%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Xometry Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's increasing exposure to international markets, especially in Europe and other less-mature geographies, risks over-extension and persistent operating losses in regions where network effects are not yet established, potentially impacting consolidated revenue growth and net margins.
Despite strong gross margin improvements, there remains a persistent lack of consistent GAAP profitability, with positive adjusted EBITDA only recently achieved and cash balances decreasing due to ongoing capital expenditures-indicating long-term pressure on earnings and the possibility of equity dilution if unprofitability persists.
Xometry's ongoing and substantial investment in technology, AI, and rapid product iterations entails execution risk and ongoing high operating expenses, which, if not matched by corresponding revenue growth and competitive advantage, could lower net margins and diminish shareholder value.
Industry competition in digital manufacturing marketplaces is intensifying, with both established manufacturers and new digital entrants threatening Xometry's pricing power, potentially forcing take rates down and creating margin compression that could materially impact future earnings.
Broader secular risks-including rising trade barriers, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty (such as persistent low manufacturing indices), and evolving cybersecurity/data privacy regulations-may constrain both top-line growth (revenue) and increase compliance or operating costs, posing headwinds to long-term earnings growth and market expansion.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $47.667 for Xometry based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $55.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $989.6 million, earnings will come to $57.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 56.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
Given the current share price of $46.71, the analyst price target of $47.67 is 2.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Raise Xometry Price Target on Strong Results and Growth Outlook Amid Mixed Commentary