I’ll break this out into a few segments. First segment is FSD, Robotaxi vision, cybercab, and Optimus. FSD driverless? This carries huge risks if pushed out in mass. Why? Tesla refuses to share disengagement data with regulators and the general public. Robotaxi vision? The thought of mass adoption by Tesla car owners to use their cabs as taxis is far-fetched. Why? Tesla has not publicized the costs around this vision. Insurance, cleaning, maintenance, charging, to name a few. What a headache to deal with and for what? A few bucks? Don’t think this is a selling point. Cybercab with no steering wheel and pedals? Since there is no lidar, chances of getting stuck is higher when compared to Waymo. Insurance is sure to be a huge expense for those wanting to create a taxi business using Tesla cybercabs. Demand? Majority of people stated they would not trust it, especially with no available disengagement data. Optimus. Where is the demand. The push to get this out early is a mistake. Will be a rich man’s toy for at least a decade until companies find real use cases for these in factories. There are already robots on production floors that are amazingly fast. Add AI those and now they are intelligent! Humanoid robots don’t make sense on a factory floor due to the outliers that humans must deal with on a daily basis. So, in summary, Tesla hugely overvalued and sustained by the cult following. Fair price should be under $100 until something real happens, not just promises filled with delusion.
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The user Czar holds no position in NasdaqGS:TSLA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
