Materials Swedish Community

Update as of 9 April: Just like any other basic resources stock, SSAB got hammered ever since the advent of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and their ongoing escalation down to recession fears; thus, as always with markets tumbling on a broad basis, it's no use to catch a falling knife. Once the current, all-out sell-off is over, however, I stick to SSAB's relatively positive prospects due to the catalysts as given below, since nothing has changed with the EU's investment agenda.

Risks -27% stock price drop over past year – industry-wide pressure Cyclicality – tied to industrial demand cycles Moderate growth – not a high-growth tech stock Assumptions Revenue by 2029: Estimate: ~SEK 26–28 billion Current Revenue: SEK 20.44 billion Expected Growth: ~4.3–7.2% annually Growth Drivers: Strong demand for polymer solutions in automotive, construction, and energy Growth in engineered products and thermoplastic elastomers Sustainability and recycling focus aligned with EU regulations (ESG boost) Earnings by 2029: Estimate: ~SEK 3–3.5 billion Current Earnings: SEK 2.22 billion Expected Growth: ~7.2% annually Key Factors: Stable gross margins (21–23%) Facility consolidation and improved operational efficiency Acquisitions (M&A) and shift toward high-margin products Catalysts Reliable dividend yield – 4.3% Low debt (Debt/Equity = 18.7%) Consistent growth through green innovation and acquisitions

Catalysts Historic Growth: HEXPOL has demonstrated robust growth over the years—expanding from modest beginnings in 2001 to achieving sales over 22 billion SEK in 2023—and its strong track record suggests that this momentum is likely to continue. Gross Margins: The company has maintained stable gross margins (18-23%) last five years, reflecting enduring pricing power vs customers.

SSAB is at a pivotal moment as it navigates the dual challenges of a cyclical steel market and a major transformation toward fossil‐free production. The company is aggressively investing in its new electric arc furnace (EAF) projects—most notably a “mini-mill” in Luleå and conversion plans in Oxelösund—to shift its product mix toward higher-margin, premium steels such as advanced high‐strength and “green” steel.

Catalysts Product Expansion: I-Tech's antifouling agent, Selektope, has been integrated into the product portfolios of six major global paint manufacturers, with ongoing development in others. This broadening adoption indicates a growing market acceptance and potential for increased sales.

Summary Holmen is trading at a premium (P/E ~23) amid cyclical weakness in sawmill products and lower energy income. A more reasonable multiple on “normalized” earnings is likely ~10–15× over a longer cycle, suggesting possible overvaluation if 2025 earnings do not rebound.

Key Takeaways The Shandong factory acquisition and production optimization efforts aim to improve profitability and enhance earnings and EPS. Capacity expansion and sustainability investments are expected to boost revenue growth and long-term profitability, aligning with strategic financial goals.

Key Takeaways Alleima's pivot to high-value segments and away from lower-margin sectors is set to boost growth and net margins. Strategic capacity expansions and acquisitions aim to enhance competitive positioning and maximize high-margin revenue potential.

Key Takeaways Transition to paperboard production in North America offers revenue growth potential and strengthens future earnings through improved efficiencies. Price increases and stabilized costs are expected to enhance net margins, supporting financial flexibility and growth.