Materials Swedish Community

Q1 2025 Update Updates to the model and supporting figures below Solid report, above expectation on all lines. Good cashflows, removing doubts/concerns about this topic.

Based on the ramp-up of GRANGEX’s key mining projects (Dannemora, Sydvaranger, Apatit) and industry price forecasts, a potential annual revenue for 2030 is roughly SEK6.5 billion. This estimate assumes: Full-scale commercial production (starting 2027–2028) from Dannemora and Sydvaranger mines.

Risks -27% stock price drop over past year – industry-wide pressure Cyclicality – tied to industrial demand cycles Moderate growth – not a high-growth tech stock Assumptions Revenue by 2029: Estimate: ~SEK 26–28 billion Current Revenue: SEK 20.44 billion Expected Growth: ~4.3–7.2% annually Growth Drivers: Strong demand for polymer solutions in automotive, construction, and energy Growth in engineered products and thermoplastic elastomers Sustainability and recycling focus aligned with EU regulations (ESG boost) Earnings by 2029: Estimate: ~SEK 3–3.5 billion Current Earnings: SEK 2.22 billion Expected Growth: ~7.2% annually Key Factors: Stable gross margins (21–23%) Facility consolidation and improved operational efficiency Acquisitions (M&A) and shift toward high-margin products Catalysts Reliable dividend yield – 4.3% Low debt (Debt/Equity = 18.7%) Consistent growth through green innovation and acquisitions

Update as of 9 April: Just like any other basic resources stock, SSAB got hammered ever since the advent of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and their ongoing escalation down to recession fears; thus, as always with markets tumbling on a broad basis, it's no use to catch a falling knife. Once the current, all-out sell-off is over, however, I stick to SSAB's relatively positive prospects due to the catalysts as given below, since nothing has changed with the EU's investment agenda.

Catalysts Historic Growth: HEXPOL has demonstrated robust growth over the years—expanding from modest beginnings in 2001 to achieving sales over 22 billion SEK in 2023—and its strong track record suggests that this momentum is likely to continue. Gross Margins: The company has maintained stable gross margins (18-23%) last five years, reflecting enduring pricing power vs customers.

Summary Holmen is trading at a premium (P/E ~23) amid cyclical weakness in sawmill products and lower energy income. A more reasonable multiple on “normalized” earnings is likely ~10–15× over a longer cycle, suggesting possible overvaluation if 2025 earnings do not rebound.

Key Takeaways Strong sales growth in Asia and regional production strategy reduce tariff risks, boosting market share and improving net margins. Sustainability focus with recycled materials and green bonds enhances brand value and profitability through cost savings.

Key Takeaways Rapid adoption of high-value, eco-friendly packaging and disciplined cost management position Billerud for substantial growth, margin expansion, and outsized shareholder returns. Unique advantages in innovation, U.S. market presence, and strategic pulp capacity enable Billerud to capitalize on industry shifts toward fiber-based solutions and trade policy changes.

Key Takeaways Delays in decarbonization efforts and exposure to low-cost global competition threaten SSAB's ability to maintain premium pricing and strong margins. Structural declines in core market demand and inflexible cost base elevate risks of stagnant revenues and reduced profitability under shifting industry dynamics.