Board Initiatives And Lending Focus Will Drive Revenue And Profitability Forward

Key Takeaways

• Strategic expansion into diverse lending segments and digital investments enables risk diversification, revenue growth, and improved margin prospects through operational efficiencies.
  
• Enhanced capital allocation flexibility and improved funding costs, alongside stable asset quality, position the bank for sustained profitability and stronger earnings quality.
  
• Persistent asset quality stress, margin compression, elevated costs, and rising competition threaten profitability and growth unless collection efficiency, scale, and asset quality significantly improve.

Catalysts

Provides various banking and financial services in India.

• The ongoing expansion into affordable housing, MSME, gold, vehicle, and agri loans-supported by strong double
• and triple-digit YoY growth-signals that the bank is leveraging rapid increases in formal credit demand from underbanked and semi-urban India, opening up new sources of revenue and diversifying risk beyond its traditional microfinance portfolio.
  
• Management's sustained investment in digital and analytics platforms (reflected in cost savings from IT and a focus on scalable fintech solutions) positions the bank to benefit from the accelerating adoption of digital payments and banking services, which should translate into lower operating costs and support margin expansion.
  
• The reduction in priority sector lending requirements from 75% to 60% for small finance banks increases flexibility in capital allocation, allowing more focus on higher-yielding, secured lending segments-supporting future growth in net interest margins and overall earnings.
  
• A targeted strategy to increase the CASA ratio (with 13% YoY growth and recalibration of savings account rates) and lower funding costs via repricing of deposits is expected to improve cost of funds in the coming quarters, translating into higher net margins.
  
• Normalizing collection efficiency, stabilizing asset quality in previously stressed states (evidenced by improving trends in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) and declining credit costs signal improving earnings quality and the potential for higher profitability as credit costs revert toward historical averages.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Ujjivan Small Finance Bank's revenue will grow by 27.6% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 14.7% today to 20.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach ₹15.0 billion (and earnings per share of ₹6.53) by about September 2028, up from ₹5.3 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as ₹10.4 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 15.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the IN Banks industry at 11.7x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.13% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 14.95%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Elevated reliance on the microfinance (unsecured) segment-evidenced by 80% of provisions and most slippages concentrated in this book-suggests persistent asset quality risks if economic stress continues or intensifies, potentially driving elevated credit costs and impairments that may weigh on net margins and long-term earnings.
  
• Sustained deterioration in asset quality, especially in key states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, with PAR and GNPA metrics still elevated (e.g., Karnataka individual loan PAR rising from 6.8% to 7.4%) signals ongoing stress; delays in normalization of collection efficiency or fresh systemic shocks could prolong high provisioning cycles and pressure profitability.
  
• The ongoing repricing of deposits and shift toward a higher proportion of secured lending is leading to compressing yields and NIMs-management expects a continued downward trajectory (e.g., NIM guided down to 7.8% by Q4)-which could constrain revenue growth and reduce absolute profitability if not offset by a larger increase in volumes or operating efficiencies.
  
• Investments in branch network expansion (planned 400 new branches over 4 years) and continued elevated cost-to-income ratio (projected at 67% despite advancing phase) suggest that operating leverage benefits may be delayed; higher operating expenses for geographic and sectoral diversification may dilute net margins unless significant scale and asset quality improvements materialize.
  
• Heightened competition for lower-risk, higher-ticket secured segments, especially following regulatory relaxation (priority sector lending norm reduced from 75% to 60%), could lead to a more crowded market and margin compression, while risk of fintech and large bank incursion into Ujjivan SFB's customer base could reduce growth and profitability opportunities, adversely impacting long-term revenue and earnings.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of ₹54.867 for Ujjivan Small Finance Bank based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ₹73.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ₹42.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be ₹74.5 billion, earnings will come to ₹15.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 14.9%.
• Given the current share price of ₹43.05, the analyst price target of ₹54.87 is 21.5% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.