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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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Rp3.6k
63.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
39.68% p.a.
Profit Margin
34.07%
Future PE
4.31x
Price in 2031
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22.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
18.98% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.38%
Future PE
7.58x
Price in 2031
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50.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
23.71% p.a.
Profit Margin
8.02%
Future PE
5.81x
Price in 2031
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37.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-0.65% p.a.
Profit Margin
13.24%
Future PE
8.27x
Price in 2031
Rp451.02
Rp931.11
82.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
0.47% p.a.
Profit Margin
11.48%
Future PE
16.15x
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Rp9.05k
24.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
26.24% p.a.
Profit Margin
11.97%
Future PE
8.07x
Price in 2029
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31.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
12.94% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.16%
Future PE
10.67x
Price in 2031
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