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US$65
FV
27.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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€121
25.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
6% p.a.
Profit Margin
21%
Future PE
13x
Price in 2029
€152.43
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Sofina Société Anonyme

Why I invest in Sofina (Dividend growth)

NAV As Sofina is an investment holding company, NAV is an important factor in my evaluation. This Net Asset Value is estimated at a price share of 297 Eur, up from 294 last year.Read more

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€332.38
31.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
85.3%
Future PE
29x
Price in 2029
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€89.45
22.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
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Future PE
22x
Price in 2031
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60.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
31.75% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.68%
Future PE
20.76x
Price in 2030
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€229.98
26.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
14.03% p.a.
Profit Margin
5.22%
Future PE
20.28x
Price in 2031
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€686.43
10.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15% p.a.
Profit Margin
27%
Future PE
29x
Price in 2031
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€48
21.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
22.52% p.a.
Profit Margin
6.71%
Future PE
20.67x
Price in 2031
€81.79