Major Estimate Revision • May 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 59%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €11.8b to €12.0b. EPS estimate fell from €5.22 to €2.13 per share. Net income forecast to grow 20% next year vs 0.2% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €148. Share price was steady at €113 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 03
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 42% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €8.54b to €12.1b. EPS estimate increased from €3.32 to €4.36 per share. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 5.0% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. Consensus price target of €149 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.5% to €115 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 05
Key Executive recently sold €438k worth of stock On the 31st of March, Dimitri de Vreeze sold around 4k shares on-market at roughly €106 per share. This transaction amounted to 3.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Dimitri's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 38% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €5.28 to €3.27 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €8.65b. Net income forecast to grow 25% next year vs 2.1% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €150. Share price fell 3.3% to €111 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: €2.63 (down from €6.25 in FY 2021). Revenue: €8.39b (down 8.8% from FY 2021). Net income: €454.0m (down 58% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 5.4% (down from 12% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 143%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Duyuru • Feb 18
DSM Firmenich Announces Intention Pay Final Gross Dividend DSM Firmenich announced intention to pay a gross dividend of EUR 423 million, which will be almost EUR 1.6 per share as a sort of final dividend. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €3.69 to €3.32 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €8.77b. Net income forecast to shrink 43% next year vs 1.8% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €151. Share price rose 4.1% to €123 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 16
Key Executive recently bought €587k worth of stock On the 7th of November, Thomas Leysen bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly €117 per share. This transaction amounted to 99% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Thomas' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Duyuru • Nov 01
Koninklijke DSM N.V. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 16, 2023 Koninklijke DSM N.V. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 16, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Oct 03
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from €4.83 to €5.81. Revenue forecast steady at €8.30b. Net income forecast to shrink 3.9% next year vs 3.4% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €173. Share price rose 4.7% to €119 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €10.1b to €9.45b. EPS estimate also fell from €6.13 per share to €5.11 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 6.9% next year vs 5.6% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in the Netherlands . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €179. Share price fell 4.8% to €143 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 03
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2022 results: EPS: €1.68 (down from €2.41 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €4.12b (down 8.3% from 1H 2021). Net income: €290.0m (down 30% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 7.0% (down from 9.3% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 6.6%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.6%, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the industry in the Netherlands. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year. Upcoming Dividend • May 05
Upcoming dividend of €1.70 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 May 2022. Payment date: 01 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 40% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Dutch dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Price Target Changed • Sep 30
Price target increased to €183 Up from €170, the current price target is an average from 23 analysts. New target price is 5.8% above last closing price of €173. Stock is up 19% over the past year. Executive Departure • May 12
Independent Deputy Chairwoman of Supervisory Board has left the company On the 6th of May, Pauline Francoise van der Meer Mohr's tenure as Independent Deputy Chairwoman of Supervisory Board ended after 10.0 years in the role. As of December 2020, Pauline Francoise personally held 1.53k shares (€215k worth at the time). A total of 4 executives have left over the last 12 months. Executive Departure • May 12
Independent Chairman of Supervisory Board Robert Routs has left the company On the 6th of May, Robert Routs' tenure as Independent Chairman of Supervisory Board ended after 10.0 years in the role. We don't have any record of a personal shareholding under Robert's name. A total of 4 executives have left over the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • May 09
Key Executive exercised options and sold €609k worth of stock On the 5th of May, Dimitri de Vreeze exercised 6k options at a strike price of around €48.91 and sold these shares for an average price of €150 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to December 2020, Dimitri's total compensation was 34% salary and 66% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since December 2020, Dimitri's direct individual holding has increased from 105.25k shares to 113.78k. Company insiders have collectively sold €1.6m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • May 04
Upcoming dividend of €1.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 May 2021. Payment date: 03 June 2021. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Dutch dividend payers (4.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 04
Key Executive recently sold €750k worth of stock On the 31st of March, Dimitri de Vreeze sold around 16k shares on-market at roughly €46.49 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Dimitri has been a seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by €1.0m. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 25
Analysts update estimates The 2021 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate increased from €4.83 to €5.61. Revenue estimate for the same period was approximately flat at €8.72b. Net income is expected to grow by 103% next year compared to 24% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. The consensus price target increased from €147 to €150. Share price is down by 2.8% to €139 over the past week. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 20
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 21%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.4%, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €2.64 (vs €4.27 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €8.11b (down 10.0% from FY 2019). Net income: €452.0m (down 40% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.6% (down from 8.3% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 18
Analysts update estimates The 2021 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate was lowered from €5.55 to €4.94. Revenue estimate was approximately flat at €8.70b. Net income is expected to grow by 45% next year compared to 28% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in the Netherlands. The consensus price target increased from €146 to €150. Share price is up 1.4% to €149 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 04
New 90-day high: €149 The company is up 1.0% from its price of €147 on 05 November 2020. The Dutch market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €118 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 12
New 90-day high: €147 The company is up 15% from its price of €128 on 14 July 2020. The Dutch market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 11% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €121 per share. Price Target Changed • Oct 09
Price target raised to €145 Up from €132, the current price target is an average from 21 analysts. The new target price is close to the current share price of €145. As of last close, the stock is up 32% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 19
New 90-day high: €138 The company is up 14% from its price of €122 on 19 June 2020. The Dutch market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 9.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €69.23 per share.