Upcoming Dividend • May 20
Upcoming dividend of kr2.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 May 2026. Payment date: 02 June 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.6%). Recent Insider Transactions • May 05
Independent Director recently bought kr1.5m worth of stock On the 28th of April, Magnus Nicolin bought around 25k shares on-market at roughly kr61.15 per share. This transaction increased Magnus' direct individual holding by 1x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr6.5m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 28
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to kr61.43, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 29% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr79.12 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 19
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 18% to kr75.95. The fair value is estimated to be kr63.11, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 51%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 30% per annum over the same time period. Duyuru • Apr 07
Billerud AB (publ) Announces Jan Svensson Leaves as Chairman of Board, Effective 26 May 2026 Billerud AB (publ) announced that Jan Svensson, current Chairman of the Board of Billerud, will be leaving the Board in connection with the Annual General Meeting 2026 to be held on 26 May 2026. Reported Earnings • Apr 06
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: kr2.86 (vs kr7.03 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: kr2.86 (down from kr7.03 in FY 2024). Revenue: kr40.6b (down 6.8% from FY 2024). Net income: kr711.0m (down 59% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 4.0% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Feb 24
Billerud AB (publ) to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Final Results on Apr 01, 2026 Billerud AB (publ) announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 final results at 9:00 AM, Central European Standard Time on Apr 01, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 13
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.6% to kr81.85. The fair value is estimated to be kr67.55, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 51%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.08% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 29% per annum over the same time period. Declared Dividend • Feb 09
Dividend reduced to kr2.00 Dividend of kr2.00 is 43% lower than last year. Ex-date: 27th May 2026 Payment date: 2nd June 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (70% earnings payout ratio) but not adequately covered by cash flows (97% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 116% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 02
Chief Financial Officer recently bought kr373k worth of stock On the 30th of January, Andrei Kres bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly kr74.57 per share. This transaction increased Andrei's direct individual holding by 1x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Andrei has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of kr432k worth in shares. Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: kr2.86 (vs kr7.03 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: kr2.86 (down from kr7.03 in FY 2024). Revenue: kr40.5b (down 7.1% from FY 2024). Net income: kr711.0m (down 59% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 4.0% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.3% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 17% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 30
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to kr72.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 36% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr126 per share. Duyuru • Jan 30
Billerud AB Proposes Dividend for 2025 The Board of Directors of Billerud AB (publ) proposed a dividend of SEK 2.00 per share (3.50), corresponding to 70% of the net profit. Duyuru • Jan 16
Billerud AB (publ) to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Oct 22, 2026 Billerud AB (publ) announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Oct 22, 2026 Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: kr0.25 loss per share (vs kr2.27 profit in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: kr0.25 loss per share (down from kr2.27 profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue: kr9.94b (down 8.0% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: kr63.0m (down 111% from profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 54% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Sep 23
Billerud AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026 Billerud AB (publ), Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 10
Independent Chairman of the Board recently bought kr898k worth of stock On the 5th of September, Jan Svensson bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly kr89.78 per share. This transaction amounted to 33% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr1.0m. This was Jan's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 22
President & CEO recently bought kr1.0m worth of stock On the 18th of July, Ivar Vatne bought around 11k shares on-market at roughly kr89.68 per share. This transaction amounted to 28% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Ivar's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jul 19
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: kr0.22 (vs kr0.25 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: kr0.22 (down from kr0.25 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: kr10.3b (down 4.3% from 2Q 2024). Net income: kr55.0m (down 13% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.5% (down from 0.6% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Jul 18
Billerud AB (Publ) Announces Executive Changes Billerud AB (publ) announced Ulrika Wedberg, Executive Vice President Sustainability & Public Affairs, will leave Billerud on 30 September, 2025. She will be succeeded by Sofia Hedevåg, who will assume this role on 1 December 2025 and who presently holds the position as Senior Vice President Sustainability and member of the Group Management in Gränges. Upcoming Dividend • May 14
Upcoming dividend of kr3.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 May 2025. Payment date: 27 May 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.8%). In line with average of industry peers (3.3%). Recent Insider Transactions • May 09
Independent Director recently bought kr373k worth of stock On the 6th of May, Regi Aalstad bought around 4k shares on-market at roughly kr101 per share. This transaction amounted to 53% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr16m. Insiders have collectively bought kr16m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: kr1.67 (vs kr1.26 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: kr1.67 (up from kr1.26 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: kr11.2b (up 7.4% from 1Q 2024). Net income: kr415.0m (up 33% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.7% (up from 3.0% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Apr 14
Billerud AB (Publ) Proposes Dividend, Payable on 27 May 2025 Billerud AB (publ) at its annual general meeting to be held on 20 May 2025, proposed a dividend of SEK 3.50 per share. The dividend is estimated to be paid out to the shareholders on 27 May 2025. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: kr7.03 (vs kr1.95 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: kr7.03 (up from kr1.95 in FY 2023). Revenue: kr43.6b (up 5.3% from FY 2023). Net income: kr1.75b (up 261% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 1.2% in FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 22
Independent Director recently bought kr16m worth of stock On the 20th of February, Magnus Nicolin bought around 130k shares on-market at roughly kr120 per share. This transaction increased Magnus' direct individual holding by 11x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr15m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • Feb 08
Dividend of kr3.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of kr3.50. Ex-date: 21st May 2025 Payment date: 27th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.0%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (50% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (147% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 4.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 46% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Duyuru • Feb 08
Billerud AB (publ) to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Final Results on Mar 27, 2025 Billerud AB (publ) announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 final results on Mar 27, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: kr7.02 (vs kr1.95 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: kr7.02 (up from kr1.95 in FY 2023). Revenue: kr44.1b (up 6.7% from FY 2023). Net income: kr1.75b (up 261% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 1.2% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Jan 14
Billerud AB (publ) to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 23, 2025 Billerud AB (publ) announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 23, 2025 Duyuru • Dec 20
Billerud Appoints Jaakko Nikkilä as President, Billerud Europe and Member of the Group Management Team Billerud announced the appointment of Jaakko Nikkilä as President, Billerud Europe and member of the Group Management Team. Jaakko Nikkilä holds the position of Executive Vice President at UPM, heading the business area Specialty Paper with global sales of around EUR 1.5 billion, until year-end. Jaakko Nikkilä has extensive experience in both international sales and production of fiber-based packaging materials. He has been employed by the UPM Group since 1995 and served as a member of the UPM Group Executive Team since 2019. Jaakko Nikkilä, born 1967, is a Finnish citizen. He will assume the position as President of Billerud Europe on 1 May 2025 and will be based in Stockholm. As previously announced, Matthew Hirst will leave Billerud on 31 January 2025. Ivar Vatne will act as the interim President of Region Europe from 1 February to 30 April. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 27
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.4% to kr98.15. The fair value is estimated to be kr124, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 35% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 08
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.4% to kr97.25. The fair value is estimated to be kr123, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 35% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Oct 30
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.5% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: kr2.27 (vs kr2.64 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: kr2.27 (down from kr2.64 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: kr10.8b (up 6.0% from 3Q 2023). Net income: kr565.0m (down 14% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (down from 6.4% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Duyuru • Sep 18
Billerud Appoints Doug Schwartz as President Billerud North America and Member of the Group Management Team, Effective 30 September 2024 Billerud has appointed Doug Schwartz as President Billerud North America and member of the company's Group Management Team, effective 30 September 2024. Doug Schwartz has extensive experience in the U.S. forest and paper industry, including serving in key leadership roles at companies such as Sonoco Products Company (Sonoco), International Paper and Champion International Corporation. He most recently held the position of Vice President and General Manager, Rigid Paper Containers at Sonoco. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 23
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.2% to kr108. The fair value is estimated to be kr135, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 32% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Jul 22
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: kr0.25 (vs kr1.94 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: kr0.25 (up from kr1.94 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: kr10.8b (up 8.1% from 2Q 2023). Net income: kr63.0m (up kr544.0m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.6% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 22
Insider recently sold kr333k worth of stock On the 19th of July, Andreas Mattsson sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly kr107 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of kr51k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Duyuru • Jun 15
Billerud Announces Executive Changes Billerud announced that Kevin Kuznicki, President, Billerud North America and member of the Group Management Team, is leaving the company to pursue other ventures, effective 14 June 2024. Tor Lundqvist, Deputy President and Senior Vice President of Operations for North America will assume the role of Acting President, Billerud North America until a successor is appointed. The recruitment process for a new President, Billerud North America will start immediately, and a successor will be announced in due course. Board Change • Jun 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Andreas Blaschke was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • May 15
Upcoming dividend of kr2.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 May 2024. Payment date: 28 May 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.4%). Duyuru • Apr 12
Jan Åström Declines Re-Election to Board of Billerud AB (publ) Billerud AB (publ) announced that Jan Åström has declined re-election to the board at the annual general meeting 2024 to be held on May 21, 2024. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: kr1.95 (vs kr20.13 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: kr1.95 (down from kr20.13 in FY 2022). Revenue: kr41.3b (down 3.2% from FY 2022). Net income: kr484.0m (down 90% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.2% (down from 11% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 31
Dividend of kr2.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of kr2.00. Ex-date: 22nd May 2024 Payment date: 28th May 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (103% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (440% cash payout ratio). The dividend has remained flat since 10 years ago. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 14% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 126% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. New Risk • Jan 28
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 36% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.2% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jan 26
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: kr1.95 (vs kr20.13 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: kr1.95 (down from kr20.13 in FY 2022). Revenue: kr41.5b (down 2.7% from FY 2022). Net income: kr484.0m (down 90% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.2% (down from 11% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Duyuru • Jan 25
Billerud AB Proposes Dividend for 2023 Billerud AB (publ) announced that the The Board proposes a dividend for 2023 of SEK 2.00 per share, 65% of the adjusted net profit. Duyuru • Jan 15
Billerud Aktiebolag Appoints Robert Pletzin as Head of Media Relations, Effective April 1, 2024 Billerud Aktiebolag announced that As of April 1, 2024 Robert Pletzin assumes the role of Head of Media Relations at Billerud. Robert brings extensive experience in leading press positions from companies with international operations, along with a background as a financial journalist. Robert joins from his previous position as the Head of Media Relations at Swedavia and also holds experience from leading press roles at Vattenfall. Additionally, he has worked as a financial reporter at Dagens Industri, Nyhetsbyrån Direkt and as a correspondent for the news agency Reuters. Duyuru • Dec 20
Billerud AB (publ) Appoints Andrei Krés as CFO Andrei Krés has been appointed as the new CFO of Billerud. Andrei has been the acting CFO since August 2023 and will assume the permanent role immediately. Andrei Krés joined Billerud in 2011 and has since then held several different positions within the company including Head of Group Treasury, Vice President of Group Finance and since August 2023 as acting CFO. Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: kr2.64 (vs kr5.42 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: kr2.64 (down from kr5.42 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: kr10.3b (down 14% from 3Q 2022). Net income: kr656.0m (down 51% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.4% (down from 11% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 24
President of the North America recently bought kr282k worth of stock On the 21st of August, Kevin Kuznicki bought around 3k shares on-market at roughly kr83.80 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr1.5m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Duyuru • Jul 29
Billerud AB Announces Retirement of Christoph Michalski as CEO Billerud AB (publ) board announced that the company's President and CEO Christoph Miclski is leaving the CEO role a at Billerud, with immediate effect. Michalski has held the position of CEO since November 2020. The board of Billerud has appointed the current CFO and deputy CEO, Ivar Vatne, as acting CEO. Ivar Vatne joined the company as CFO in May 2019 and has also been deputy CEO since October 2022. Before Billerud, Ivar has a background from senior positions within Arla, Fiskars and P&G. The recruitment of a new CEO will start up immediately. Buying Opportunity • Jul 22
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 20%. The fair value is estimated to be kr100, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 26% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 56%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.2% per annum. Earnings is forecast to grow by 9.8% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Jul 21
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Dividend per share is over 23x cash flows per share. Dividend yield: 6.4% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 23x cash flows per share). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.4% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jul 20
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: kr1.94 loss per share (vs kr6.83 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: kr1.94 loss per share (down from kr6.83 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: kr10.0b (down 12% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: kr481.0m (down 134% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 56% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Duyuru • Jul 15
Mimir Invest AB signed an agreement to acquire Billerud Managed Packaging Ab from Billerud AB (publ) (OM:BILL). Mimir Invest AB signed an agreement to acquire Billerud Managed Packaging Ab from Billerud AB (publ) (OM:BILL) on July 13, 2023.The transaction is expected to be completed during August 2023.Managed Packaging has 143 employees in Asia, Europe and USA, and had in 2022 net sales of SEK 770 million,reported under the segment Solutions & Other. Board Change • Jun 04
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Regi Aalstad was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • May 18
Upcoming dividend of kr7.50 per share at 5.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 May 2023. Payment date: 31 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 5.7%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.2%). Recent Insider Transactions • May 17
Insider recently sold kr309k worth of stock On the 11th of May, Andreas Mattsson sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly kr99.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 26% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought kr2.9m more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • May 16
Insider recently sold kr309k worth of stock On the 11th of May, Andreas Mattsson sold around 3k shares on-market at roughly kr99.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 26% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought kr2.9m more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 28
President & CEO recently bought kr1.5m worth of stock On the 26th of April, Christoph Michalski bought around 16k shares on-market at roughly kr96.40 per share. This transaction amounted to 40% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Christoph has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of kr2.5m worth in shares. Reported Earnings • Apr 06
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Net income: kr4.59b (up 209% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 41% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 10
Independent Director recently bought kr78k worth of stock On the 7th of February, Victoria Van Camp bought around 600 shares on-market at roughly kr129 per share. This transaction amounted to 20% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr4.2m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Jan 28
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: kr20.13 (vs kr7.18 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: kr20.13 (up from kr7.18 in FY 2021). Revenue: kr43.0b (up 64% from FY 2021). Net income: kr4.59b (up 209% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 5.6% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Director Jan Astrom was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Oct 26
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Net income: kr1.35b (up 182% from 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Reported Earnings • Jul 21
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Net income: kr1.42b (up 356% from 2Q 2021). Recent Insider Transactions • May 29
Independent Director recently bought kr1.3m worth of stock On the 27th of May, Jan Astrom bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly kr134 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought kr6.3m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • May 17
President & CEO recently bought kr979k worth of stock On the 11th of May, Christoph Michalski bought around 7k shares on-market at roughly kr134 per share. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth kr1.2m. Christoph has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of kr3.2m worth in shares. 
