Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 11
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to CA$29.77, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Airlines industry in North America. Total returns to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Aug 07
Price target increased by 7.1% to CA$33.36 Up from CA$31.14, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 16% above last closing price of CA$28.65. Stock is up 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$2.11 for next year compared to CA$3.05 last year. Duyuru • Aug 06
Chorus Aviation Inc. Declares Cash Dividend, Payable on September 30, 2026 The Board of Directors of Chorus Aviation Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.11 per Class A Variable Voting Share and Class B Voting Share payable on September 30, 2026 to Shareholders of record at the close of business on September 15, 2026. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
Second quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$0.60 (down from CA$1.24 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: CA$349.4m (up 7.6% from 2Q 2025). Net income: CA$13.8m (down 57% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 10.0% in 2Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 22% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 08
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 June 2026. Payment date: 30 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 13% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.5%). Reported Earnings • May 11
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$0.30 (down from CA$0.70 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: CA$325.4m (down 6.5% from 1Q 2025). Net income: CA$7.00m (down 63% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.2% (down from 5.4% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 43%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 8.4% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 33% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Duyuru • May 10
Chorus Aviation Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on June 30, 2026 Chorus Aviation Inc. announced the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.11 per Class A Variable Voting Share and Class B Voting Share payable on June 30, 2026 to Shareholders of record at the close of business on June 15, 2026. Board Change • Apr 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. President, CEO & Director Colin Copp was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 12
Independent Chairman recently bought CA$112k worth of stock On the 9th of March, Paul Rivett bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly CA$22.47 per share. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Paul's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 06
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 March 2026. Payment date: 31 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 8.8% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Duyuru • Feb 24
Chorus Aviation Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2026 Chorus Aviation Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 23
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to CA$24.76, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Airlines industry in North America. Total returns to shareholders of 13% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at CA$41.48 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Full year 2025 results: EPS: CA$3.05 (up from CA$4.56 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: CA$1.32b (down 6.3% from FY 2024). Net income: CA$78.7m (up CA$203.8m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 6.0% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 8.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Feb 15
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 17% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (17% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 31% per year for the foreseeable future. Duyuru • Feb 13
Chorus Aviation Inc. Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on March 31, 2026 Chorus Aviation Inc. announced the declaration of quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per Class A Variable Voting Share and Class B Voting Share payable on March 31, 2026 to Shareholders of record at the close of business on March 13, 2026. This declared dividend represents a 38% increase from the prior quarterly dividend. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 05
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.08 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 December 2025. Payment date: 29 December 2025. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in December 2014. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 2.7%. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.42 (down from CA$0.78 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CA$323.6m (down 5.4% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CA$10.7m (down 50% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.3% (down from 6.2% in 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 34%. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 12%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 121 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Duyuru • Nov 08
Chorus Aviation Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year Ending December 31, 2025 and for Fiscal Year 2026 Chorus Aviation Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2025 and for fiscal year 2026. For the 2025, the company expects revenue to be $123,000,000.
For the 2026, the company expects revenue to be $104,000,000. New Risk • Nov 08
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 31% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 31% per year for the foreseeable future. Duyuru • Nov 07
Chorus Aviation Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend, Payable on December 29, 2025 Chorus Aviation Inc. announced the declaration of a cash dividend of CAD 0.08 per Class A Variable Voting Share and Class B Voting Share payable on December 29, 2025 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 12, 2025. Duyuru • Sep 22
Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) announces an Equity Buyback for CAD 50 million worth of its shares. Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) announces a share repurchase program. Under the substantial course issuer bid, the company will repurchase up to CAD 50 million of its Class A Variable Voting Shares and Class B Voting Shares. The shares will be repurchased at a cash purchase price of not less than CAD 23 and not more than CAD 25 per Share. If Shares with an aggregate purchase price of more than CAD 25 million are properly tendered and not properly withdrawn, the company will purchase the Shares on a pro rata basis except that "odd lot" tenders. The purpose of the offer is use of the company's financial resources given its available cash resources and to truly reflect the value in share prices. The offer is valid till November 10, 2025. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2025 earnings released Second quarter 2025 results: Net income: (down CA$571.0k from profit in 2Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 47% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Aug 06
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 24% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.5x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 24% per year for the foreseeable future. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.08 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 July 2025. Payment date: 15 August 2025. The company last paid an ordinary dividend in August 2014. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 2.6%. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.71 (up from CA$0.25 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: CA$348.1m (down 2.9% from 1Q 2024). Net income: CA$18.9m (up CA$25.9m from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 21
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.0% to CA$18.22. The fair value is estimated to be CA$23.15, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Duyuru • Apr 07
Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) announces an Equity Buyback for CAD 25 million worth of its shares. Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) announces a share repurchase program. Under the substantial course issuer bid, the company will repurchase up to CAD 25 million of its Class A Variable Voting Shares and Class B Voting Shares. The shares will be repurchased at a cash purchase price of not less than CAD 17.50 and not more than CAD 21 per Share. If Shares with an aggregate purchase price of more than CAD 25 million are properly tendered and not properly withdrawn, the company will purchase the Shares on a pro rata basis except that "odd lot" tenders. The purpose of the offer is use of the company's financial resources given its available cash resources and to truly reflect the value in share prices. The offer is valid till May 20, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 04
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to CA$18.70. The fair value is estimated to be CA$23.49, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.6% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 02
President recently bought CA$100k worth of stock On the 27th of February, Colin Copp bought around 5k shares on-market at roughly CA$20.12 per share. This transaction amounted to 9.3% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Colin's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Duyuru • Feb 26
Chorus Aviation Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 07, 2025 Chorus Aviation Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 07, 2025. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2024 earnings released: CA$4.49 loss per share (vs CA$2.36 profit in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: CA$4.49 loss per share (down from CA$2.36 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: CA$1.40b (down 16% from FY 2023). Net loss: CA$17.8m (down 127% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Dec 10
President exercised options to buy CA$853k worth of stock. On the 6th of December, Colin Copp exercised options to buy 257k shares at a strike price of around CA$3.36, costing a total of CA$864k. This transaction amounted to 220% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2024, Colin has owned 116.99k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought CA$4.0m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Duyuru • Dec 08
HPS Investment Partners, LLC completed the acquisition of Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. from Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR). HPS Investment Partners, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. from Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) for approximately CAD 1.9 billion on July 30, 2024. The aggregate consideration for the Transaction is approximately CAD 1.9 billion, of which CAD 814 million is in the form of cash (net of estimated transaction expenses) and CAD 1.086 billion is in the form of aircraft debt to be assumed or prepaid by the buyers at closing and the value of the non-controlling interest. The SPA permits Chorus’ board of directors to consider an unsolicited superior proposal (including a proposal for the acquisition of Chorus) which is received after the date of the SPA and before the approval of the Transaction by shareholders. The buyers will have the right to match a superior proposal for the RAL segment. Chorus has agreed to pay the buyers a break fee of $25 million (CAD 34.598750 million) in the event that the Chorus board withdraws or otherwise changes its recommendation in favour of the Transaction after receiving a superior proposal and subsequently terminates the SPA to accept the superior proposal. Brookfield holds approximately 13.2% of Chorus’ outstanding common shares, and Air Canada holds approximately 8.1% of Chorus’ outstanding common shares. Both shareholders have signed voting support agreements with the buyers pursuant to which they have agreed to vote in favor of the approval of the Transaction and are expected to maintain representation on the Company’s board of directors following completion of the Transaction. The Transaction is subject to the approval of at least two thirds (66 2/3%) of the votes cast by Chorus’ common shareholders, regulatory approvals and other customary conditions to closing. Completion of the Transaction is not conditional on financing. The Chorus board has unanimously determined that the Transaction is in the best interest of Chorus and will unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the transaction. Brookfield and Air Canada, the Company’s largest shareholders, have both signed agreements to vote in favor of the Transaction at the Meeting. Chorus Aviation Inc. shareholders will hold special meeting on September 25, 2024 to approve the transaction. The transaction is subject to Antitrust clearances. On September 25, 2024, Chorus Aviation announced shareholder approval, expiration of the waiting period under the U.S. Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976 and the receipt of approval from Ireland’s Competition and Consumer Protection Commission. On October 24, 2024, all regulatory conditions for the sale of Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. have been satisfied.
The Transaction is expected to close by the end of this year. The proceeds from the Transaction are expected to be used to pay down or redeem the Company’s corporate financings, including the Series 1 Preferred Shares and all of the Debentures, as well as pay all related transaction expenses and early redemption amounts (including the multiple on invested capital payable upon the redemption of the Series 1 Preferred Shares). Following the closing of the Transaction, Chorus will exercise its rights to redeem or make an offer to redeem (as applicable) the Debentures in accordance with the terms of the relevant indentures.
Goldman Sachs International provided an opinion to the Chorus board and also acted as lead financial advisor to the Company. Scotiabank also acted as financial advisor to the Company. Chorus is advised by James Cameron, Jordan Simpson, Siddharth Sharma and Andrew Reilly of Milbank LLP as lead transaction counsel and Alex Gorka, Michelle Lally and Kaeleigh Kuzma of Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP as Canadian corporate counsel. Slaughter and May acted as legal advisor to HPS Investment. Alexandra J. McCormack and Paul T. Schnell of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP acted as legal advisor to The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. in the transaction. Kingsdale Advisors LP acted as proxy solicitor of Chorus Aviation Inc.
HPS Investment Partners, LLC completed the acquisition of Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. from Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) on December 6, 2024. Duyuru • Dec 06
Chorus Aviation Inc. Announces Management Changes Chorus Aviation Inc. announced the planned retirement of Jolene Mahody, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer, effective January 2025 after a 32-year career with Chorus and its predecessor companies. Randolph deGooyer has been appointed to the role of Chief Operating Officer of Chorus, effective January 1, 2025. Randolph is currently the President of Chorus' largest subsidiary, Jazz Aviation, and brings significant operational and industry experience to his new role. Doug Clarke, currently Jazz's Vice President of Finance and Business Services, will replace Randolph as President of Jazz. With the disposition of the RAL segment, Chorus is reducing corporate overhead cost in many areas, including reducing its Board of Directors by 50%. As a result, Chorus directors Gail Hamilton, R Stephen Hannahs, Alan Jenkins and David Levenson are stepping down from the board effective January 1, 2025, and Karen Cramm will stay on until the next annual general meeting. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 13
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to CA$0.80 loss, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from CA$1.46b to CA$1.43b. 2024 losses expected to reduce from -CA$0.92 to -CA$0.80 per share. Airlines industry in Canada expected to see average net income growth of 32% next year. Consensus price target up from CA$3.34 to CA$3.58. Share price rose 5.7% to CA$3.36 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 10
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 29% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.1% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Nov 08
Price target increased by 10% to CA$3.58 Up from CA$3.25, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of CA$3.16. Stock is up 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of CA$0.92 compared to earnings per share of CA$0.34 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.10 (up from CA$0.04 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CA$342.0m (down 24% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CA$21.2m (up 171% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.2% (up from 1.7% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 6.9%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 04
Independent Chairman recently bought CA$352k worth of stock On the 30th of September, Paul Rivett bought around 125k shares on-market at roughly CA$2.81 per share. This transaction amounted to 62% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth CA$377k. This was Paul's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 28
Independent Director recently bought CA$377k worth of stock On the 23rd of August, David Levenson bought around 145k shares on-market at roughly CA$2.61 per share. This transaction increased David's direct individual holding by 2x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 21
Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded. The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from CA$1.50b to CA$1.46b. Now expected to report a loss of CA$0.41 per share instead of CA$0.237 per share profit previously forecast. Airlines industry in Canada expected to see average net income growth of 32% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$3.25. Share price rose 2.8% to CA$2.59 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.003 (down from CA$0.053 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CA$351.2m (down 12% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CA$571.0k (down 94% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.2% (down from 2.6% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 7.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 69% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from CA$0.284 to CA$0.226 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CA$1.64b. Net income forecast to shrink 22% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Canada . Consensus price target up from CA$3.02 to CA$3.31. Share price fell 8.4% to CA$2.51 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 01
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 94% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.8x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 94% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Price Target Changed • Aug 01
Price target increased by 8.1% to CA$3.26 Up from CA$3.02, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of CA$2.85. Stock is down 7.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.26 for next year compared to CA$0.34 last year. Duyuru • Jul 30
HPS Investment Partners, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. from Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) for approximately CAD 1.9 billion. HPS Investment Partners, LLC entered into an agreement to acquire Chorus Aviation Capital Corp. from Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX:CHR) ("Chorus" or the "Company") for approximately CAD 1.9 billion on July 30, 2024. The aggregate consideration for the Transaction is approximately CAD 1.9 billion, of which CAD 814 million is in the form of cash (net of estimated transaction expenses) and CAD 1.086 billion is in the form of aircraft debt to be assumed or prepaid by the buyers at closing and the value of the non-controlling interest. The SPA permits Chorus’ board of directors to consider an unsolicited superior proposal (including a proposal for the acquisition of Chorus) which is received after the date of the SPA and before the approval of the Transaction by shareholders. The buyers will have the right to match a superior proposal for the RAL segment. Chorus has agreed to pay the buyers a break fee of $25 million (CAD 34.598750 million) in the event that the Chorus board withdraws or otherwise changes its recommendation in favour of the Transaction after receiving a superior proposal and subsequently terminates the SPA to accept the superior proposal. Brookfield holds approximately 13.2% of Chorus’ outstanding common shares, and Air Canada holds approximately 8.1% of Chorus’ outstanding common shares. Both shareholders have signed voting support agreements with the buyers pursuant to which they have agreed to vote in favour of the approval of the Transaction and are expected to maintain representation on the Company’s board of directors following completion of the Transaction. The Transaction is subject to the approval of at least two thirds (66 2/3%) of the votes cast by Chorus’ common shareholders, regulatory approvals and other customary conditions to closing. Completion of the Transaction is not conditional on financing. The Chorus board has unanimously determined that the Transaction is in the best interest of Chorus and will unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the Transaction. Brookfield and Air Canada, the Company’s largest shareholders, have both signed agreements to vote in favour of the Transaction at the Meeting.
The Transaction is expected to close by the end of this year. The proceeds from the Transaction are expected to be used to pay down or redeem the Company’s corporate financings, including the Series 1 Preferred Shares and all of the Debentures, as well as pay all related transaction expenses and early redemption amounts (including the multiple on invested capital payable upon the redemption of the Series 1 Preferred Shares). Following the closing of the Transaction, Chorus will exercise its rights to redeem or make an offer to redeem (as applicable) the Debentures in accordance with the terms of the relevant indentures. Goldman Sachs International provided an opinion to the Chorus board and also acted as lead financial advisor to the Company. Scotiabank also acted as financial advisor to the Company. Chorus is advised by Milbank LLP as lead transaction counsel and Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP as Canadian corporate counsel. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to CA$2.81, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Airlines industry in North America. Total loss to shareholders of 37% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • May 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CA$1.60b to CA$1.65b. EPS estimate fell from CA$0.345 to CA$0.285 per share. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Canada. Consensus price target down from CA$3.08 to CA$3.02. Share price was steady at CA$2.22 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: Revenue: CA$426.2m (up 2.6% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: CA$29.0k (down 100% from profit in 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 0% (down from 5.5% in 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.9%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 6.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from CA$0.389 to CA$0.345 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CA$1.59b. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 21% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Canada . Consensus price target down from CA$3.67 to CA$3.21. Share price fell 9.9% to CA$2.18 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 27
Price target decreased by 10% to CA$3.29 Down from CA$3.67, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of CA$2.09. Stock is down 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.21 for next year compared to CA$0.34 last year. New Risk • Feb 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Reported Earnings • Feb 23
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.34 (vs CA$0.13 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.34 (up from CA$0.13 in FY 2022). Revenue: CA$1.68b (up 5.3% from FY 2022). Net income: CA$65.9m (up 154% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.9% (up from 1.6% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 7.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 48% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Feb 20
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from CA$1.63b to CA$1.67b. EPS estimate fell from CA$0.491 to CA$0.415 per share. Net income forecast to grow 17% next year vs 23% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Canada. Consensus price target down from CA$3.98 to CA$3.73. Share price rose 4.0% to CA$2.32 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.04 (vs CA$0.064 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.04 (down from CA$0.064 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CA$447.6m (up 6.2% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CA$7.80m (down 40% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.7% (down from 3.1% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 8.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Duyuru • Nov 10
Chorus Aviation Inc. Provides Unaudited Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Chorus Aviation Inc. provided unaudited consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2023. For the year, the company expects revenue to be between CAD 1,500,000,000 to CAD 1,700,000,000. Price Target Changed • Aug 08
Price target decreased by 7.5% to CA$4.04 Down from CA$4.37, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of CA$2.79. Stock is down 5.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.49 for next year compared to CA$0.13 last year. New Risk • Aug 04
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (9.7% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 04
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.05 (up from CA$0.24 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CA$396.8m (up 1.1% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CA$19.0m (up CA$65.3m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.8% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 58%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 8.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 30% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • May 15
Independent Director recently bought CA$99k worth of stock On the 11th of May, David Levenson bought around 33k shares on-market at roughly CA$3.01 per share. This transaction increased David's direct individual holding by 1x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought CA$265k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.11 (down from CA$0.13 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: CA$415.3m (up 21% from 1Q 2022). Net income: CA$22.7m (down 1.1% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 6.7% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Airlines industry in North America are expected to grow by 8.0%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 74 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Duyuru • May 09
Chorus Aviation Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Chorus Aviation Inc. provided earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2023. Revenue is expected to be between CAD 1,500,000,000 to CAD 1,700,000,000. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 05
Independent Director recently bought CA$96k worth of stock On the 31st of March, David Levenson bought around 30k shares on-market at roughly CA$3.20 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought CA$194k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 27
President exercised options to buy CA$139k worth of stock. On the 21st of February, Joseph Randell exercised options to buy 44k shares at a strike price of around CA$3.28, costing a total of CA$146k. This transaction amounted to 3.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2022, Joseph has owned 1.29m shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought CA$819k more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Feb 17
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: CA$0.13 (up from CA$0.12 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: CA$1.60b (up 56% from FY 2021). Net income: CA$26.0m (up CA$46.5m from FY 2021). Profit margin: 1.6% (up from net loss in FY 2021). Total aircraft: 340 (up by 131 from FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 67 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Duyuru • Feb 17
Chorus Aviation Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Chorus Aviation Inc. provided earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2023. For the year, the company expects revenue to be in the range of CAD 1,500,000,000 to CAD 1,700,000,000. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new directors There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director David Levenson was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: CA$0.06 (up from CA$0.079 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: CA$421.3m (up 54% from 3Q 2021). Net income: CA$13.1m (up CA$27.1m from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from net loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.2% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in North America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 65 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. 
