Seeking Alpha • Feb 07

Enerplus Corporation: Finishes 2023 With Another Quarter Of Production Outperformance

Summary Enerplus reported production that exceeded the midpoint of its Q4 2023 guidance by 7%. Enerplus' full-year production ended up 5% above the midpoint of its original 2023 guidance. This production strength was attributed to well outperformance, both for its new 2023 wells and its base production trends. Enerplus is expected to continue to focus on share repurchases and may end 2024 with around 184 million outstanding shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jan 18

Enerplus Corporation: Good Company On Sale (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Enerplus Corporation is a Canadian stock that focuses primarily on the Bakken and Marcellus basins. The analyst community is moderately bullish on the stock, with 8 out of 11 covering the stock rating it as a buy. Enerplus has a solid decade of Tier 1 drilling prospects ahead of it and has been doubling output over the last 4 years. We rate Enerplus Corporation stock as a buy at current levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 03

Enerplus: Excellent Q3 2023 Results (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Enerplus reported Q3 2023 liquids production around 4% higher than previously expected. This led to another positive revision to production guidance, while costs are also trending lower than previously expected. Enerplus is now projected to generate over $300 million in free cash flow in 2H 2023, including around $162 million in Q4 2023. Much of that will likely go towards share repurchases. Enerplus repurchased 49 million shares between August 2021 and August 2023, and may repurchase another 21 million by August 2024. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Aug 24

Enerplus: Projected To Generate Over $250 Million In H2 2023 Free Cash Flow

Summary Enerplus is expected to generate over $250 million in free cash flow in 2H 2023 at current strip prices. It intends to use the majority of this to repurchase shares. Enerplus is projected to end 2023 with around 204 million shares and less than $100 million in net debt. It is focused on delivering modest liquids production growth of 3% to 5% per year, with a $500 million to $550 million capex budget. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 24

Enerplus: Strong Independent But The Focus On Buybacks Is Disappointing

Summary Enerplus Corporation is a Canadian independent E&P that operates in the Bakken Shale and Marcellus region. The company's production is a blend of crude oil and natural gas, which is nice as the fundamentals of both products are pretty good right now. The company has strong free cash flow, but it is spending it on buybacks instead of dividends and this appears to be handicapping the company's total returns. The company has a very strong balance sheet and minimal debt. Enerplus is currently trading at a fairly attractive valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Enerplus Non-GAAP EPS of C$0.78

Enerplus press release (NYSE:ERF): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$0.78. Delivered 2022 average production of 100,326 BOE per day, 9% higher than 2021

Seeking Alpha • Feb 16

Enerplus: Improved Performance And Decreasing Price Realizations

Summary Due to the increasing oil and gas production in the Bakken region and Marcellus, I expect Enerplus’ total production to increase. However, oil and natural gas prices have decreased significantly and the company’s price realizations will not be as high as before. Enerplus Corporation’s capital structure depicts a healthy position and enables the company to increase its distributions. In 3Q 2023, ERF generated $272 million of free cash flow, which indicates over 100% advance versus the amount of $130 million in 2Q 2022. The stock is a hold. Enerplus’ (ERF) stock price has been almost stable during the past month. ERF increased its 2022 LNGs production guidance by 1000 barrels per day and set its capital spending guidance to $430 million. Based on the current oil and natural gas production outlook in the United States, especially in the Bakken region and Marcellus, combined with the company’s investments in the mentioned regions, I expect its production to increase in the following quarters. However, oil and natural gas prices decreased in the past months and are not expected to come back to their high levels soon. The stock is a hold. Quarterly results In its 3Q 2022 financial results, Enerplus reported a net income of $306 million, compared with a 2Q 2022 net income of $244 million. The company’s adjusted net income increased from $172 million in 2Q 2022 to $208 million in 3Q 2022. In the third quarter of 2023, Enerplus’ cash flow from operating activities and adjusted funds flow increased by 63% QoQ and 20% QoQ to $410 million and $356 million, respectively. Enerplus’ net debt to adjusted funds flow ratio improved from 0.5 in 2Q 2022 to 0.3 in 3Q 2022. As a result of better financial results in the third quarter, ERF increased its dividend per share from $0.043 per share in 2Q 2022 to $0.050 per share in 3Q 2022. Also, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.055 per share. “Our operating momentum continued through the third quarter with liquids production increasing 20% quarter-over-quarter and strong volumes expected through the end of the year,” the CEO commented. “The result of this execution has been robust free cash flow generation which has allowed us to reduce our net debt by almost 40% and return over $270 million to shareholders through the first nine months of 2022. We remain well positioned to continue with these initiatives in the fourth quarter and into 2023,” he continued. The market outlook According to Figure 1, 94% of ERF’s revenue in the third quarter of 2022 belonged to its sales in the United States. ERF’s sales of crude oil and natural gas in the United States relate primarily to the company’s North Dakota and Marcellus properties. Figure 2 shows that U.S. Liquid fuels consumption decreased from 20.47 mb/d in 3Q 2022 to 20.26 mb/d in 4Q 2022 and is expected to decrease further to 19.4 mb/d in 1Q 2023. Also, U.S. natural gas consumption increased from 80.79 bcf/d in 3Q 2022 to 92.96 bcf/d in 4Q 2022. EIA expects U.S. natural gas consumption to increase further to 100.88 bcf/d in 1Q 2023. Due to the lower-than-normal temperatures this winter and the global recession, WTI oil prices decreased from $93.07 per barrel in 3Q 2022 to $82.69 per barrel in 4Q 2022. EIA expects WTI crude oil price to be $79.73 per barrel in 1Q 2023. Also, Henry Hub’s natural gas price dropped from $7.99 per million Btu in 3Q 2022 to $5.55 per million Btu in 4Q 2022 and is expected to be $3.13 per million Btu in 1Q 2023. However, it is worth noting that the sudden reopening of China which increases global crude oil demand, and the continuing geopolitical tensions in Europe support oil prices. Also, the restart of Freeport LNG which increases the demand for natural gas significantly in the United States supports natural gas prices. Figure 1 – ERF’s sales by region and commodity 3Q 2022 results Figure 2 – U.S. energy market summary eia ERF's total average daily production increased from 94142 BOE/d in 2Q 2022 to 107808 BOE/d in 3Q 2022, driven by higher natural gas liquids and natural gas production, partially offset by lower crude oil production. It is worth noting that crude oil and NGLs production accounted for 63% of the company’s total production in the third quarter of 2022, compared with 60% in the previous quarter. The company’s 4Q 2022 production guidance was 105,000 to 110,000 BOE per day, including liquids production of 64,000 to 68,000 barrels per day. “North Dakota production averaged 73,188 BOE per day during the third quarter of 2022, an increase of 25% compared to the prior quarter and 16% compared to the same period a year ago,” the company explained. “Marcellus production averaged 165 MMcf per day during the third quarter of 2022, an increase of 7% compared to the same period in 2021 and 2% lower than the prior quarter,” the company continued. According to GlobalData, Marcellus oil and natural gas production is expected to increase in the following years (Figure 3). Global Data projects natural gas production at Marcellus and Utica shales to rise at a CAGR of 5.1% by 2025. Moreover, according to Figure 4, Oil and natural gas production in the Bakken region increased in the past months and is expected to increase further in March. According to the company’s 3Q 2022 presentation, ERF's capital expenditures and operations have been increasing in the Bakken region (which affects its production in North Dakota) and Marcellus. Figure 3 – Marcellus oil and natural gas production outlook www.oilandgaseng.com Figure 4 – Oil and natural gas production in the Bakken region eia ERF performance outlook After a deep drop in the company’s cash and equivalents to $23 million in 1Q 2022 versus its amount of $61 million at the end of 2021, ERF’s cash generation improved and increased back to $42 million in the third quarter of 2022. Also, the company’s debt amount was in a decreasing path during the preceding year and ultimately, sat at $456 million in 3Q 2022 year-over-over compared with its level of $902 million in 3Q 2021. A decrease in total debt combined with increasing cash generation led to a level of $414 million in net debt, which is lower year-over-year versus previous level of $859 million at the time in 2021. In minutiae, ERF’s net debt plunged from $571 million at the end of the second quarter of 2022 to $414 million at the end of 3Q 2022. Furthermore, ERF’s total equity improved considerably to $921 million in 3Q 2022 compared with its previous amount of $731 million at the end of 2Q 2022. Thankfully, Enerplus Corporation’s net debt is well beneath its total equity, which can tailor a scope of capacity to bring benefits for its shareholders and assimilate upcoming risks. Thus, Enerplus Corporation’s capital structure depicts a healthy position and enables the company to increase its distributions (see Figure 5). Figure 5 – ERF’ capital structure (in millions) Author (based on SA data) After the downturn of 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the company started the recovery process successfully. ERF’s cash operation boosted to $410 million in 3Q 2022 compared with its amount of $251 million at the end of 2Q2022. Compared with last year’s result of $182.2 million, the cash operation boosted astonishingly year-over-year in 3Q 2022. Also, Enerplus Corporation’s capital expenditure increased slightly by around 13% to $137.6 million in 3Q 2022 versus its previous amount of $121 million at the end of the second quarter of 2022. When all was said and done, the company ultimately generated $272 million of free cash flow at the end of the third quarter, which indicates over 100% advance versus the amount of $130 million in 2Q 2022. Furthermore, ERF’s free cash flow amount is far higher year-over-year compared with its amount of $101.2 million in 3Q 2021, which may cater to a scope of capability for more reliable distributions in case of stronger market outlook (see Figure 6).

Seeking Alpha • Nov 01

Enerplus Corporation: More Work To Be Done

Summary The Marcellus natural gas prices received need to improve. Antero Resources has long been the best natural gas price generator in the basin. Long-term midstream contracts often make received pricing improvements a slow process. Generally, profits are a small portion of revenues. Therefore, improved pricing often materially improves profits even if the revenue change is immaterial. Transportation costs appear to be on the high side as well. (This article was in the newsletter on September 20, 2022, and has been updated as needed.) Enerplus Corporation (ERF) is a Canadian company that has essentially moved its operations to the United States. The strategy is similar to Ovintiv Inc. (OVV). Enerplus appears to have a decent operations side of the company. But the sales side probably needs some work. When it comes to the commodity business, every penny matters because the whole industry really does not have a competitive moat when "everyone" is essentially selling the same product. Therefore, protecting above-average profitability often comes from better geology, superior operations in some form, or the ability to find profits where much of the industry does not. This management does well on some of this. Enerplus Summary Of Marcellus Operations And Results (Enerplus Corporate Presentation September 2022) Probably the presence in some very good Marcellus acreage in the dry gas part of the play is a very good operational strategy. The cost structure is good enough for the company to report profits. But the marketing strategy to sell that gas needs some work. The Marcellus area has become oversupplied as the basin production rose. This has led to a "mile-wide" discount from the benchmark as shown above. When a company operates in the commodity business, that discount is a tremendous amount of money to be losing. Even if operations allow for a decent return on the production due to low costs, management needs to "go the extra mile" for shareholders by finding ways to get better pricing for that natural gas. Comparison To Antero Resources One of the things that shareholders do is pay management to think ahead. Antero Resources (AR) management has done that to provide shareholders with a considerable pricing boost compared to Enerplus pricing. Such thinking ahead helps considerably with cash flow generation because only a small amount of revenues actually make it to the income and cash flow portions of the balance sheet. Therefore, small differences in prices received make a big difference in profitability. Antero Resources Pricing Results Compared To Benchmark (Antero Resources October 2022, Earnings Conference Call Presentation) Some general guidelines to relate profits to revenue would be that typically net income is roughly 5% of revenue over the business cycle. For cyclical companies, that number can be considerably larger during the good times and then averaged out by deficits during cyclical downturns. That 5% can vary somewhat depending upon where you look and who you talk to, but it has been around a long time. That makes the premium that Antero Resources typically reports compared to NYMEX pricing a huge advantage when compared to the pricing that Enerplus reports. It is also one of the reasons that Antero Resources typically has robust cash flow compared to many in the industry despite higher costs associated with the production of rich natural gas. But midstream contracts are long term and management needs to take into account the location of midstream and possible connections before it begins development of the leases. Not many managements do that. Typically, they view themselves as "price-takers" and take whatever price is in the area as long as suitable profits can be reported. The Enerplus Marcellus location is known for its low costs. Therefore, profitability is probably assured under a wide range of pricing assumptions. But getting the production to either export markets or better pricing markets than the typical Appalachian production is something that shareholders pay management to do. The way that Antero Resources has done this is to obviously plan ahead when accepting long-term midstream contracts. Long-term followers of my articles know that this company has long been criticized for excess midstream capacity (supposedly that is costly). But then again, that extra capacity allowed management to redirect natural gas to places with soaring prices, as was the case with winter storm URI back in 2021 to the benefit of shareholders. Shown above is the current plan. But this management has long been far more flexible about selling natural gas than is the case for many managements in the industry. Even though Enerplus has larger-margined oil operations in the Bakken, the differential shown by the two companies for natural gas is large enough to prove to be a material income item in the future. Enerplus Oil Pricing The picture for the all-important Bakken oil pricing has improved considerably over the years. Enerplus Oil Price Bakken Improvement History (Enerplus Corporate Presentation September 2020) The Bakken situation has improved considerably over the booming years of rapid development in the past. The result has enabled a small premium to the benchmark for the first time in as long as I can remember. This is the majority of the company production and is also the product with the largest margin. Pricing of this production is therefore of utmost importance. The other key here is to get the product produced in the Bakken to refineries in nearby areas to avoid the costs of shipping the product to the Gulf where most of the refining capacity is located. Doing this can again add a small amount to the reported margin from time to time. Outlook The current industry situation can make a lot of penny-pinching irrelevant. But many money saving strategies take time to become effective. Therefore, the time to implement profit improving measures is often the time when the market cares less about that than the robust commodity price outlook. Enerplus Fiscal Year 2022 Guidance (Enerplus Second Quarter 2022, Earnings Press Release) Clearly the transportation expense can use some work. That is near the top cost of all the companies that I follow. At the current time, oil prices are so good that the transportation expense may not matter as much. But that can change rapidly in this industry.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 22

Enerplus May Generate $1.3 Billion In Positive Cash Flow In H2 2022 And 2023

Summary Enerplus looks capable of generating close to $1.3 billion in positive cash flow in 2H 2022 and 2023 combined at current strip. It has performed well operationally and has boosted its production guidance (without an increase in capex) despite Canadian asset divestitures. Enerplus is repurchasing shares at a fast rate and may lower its share count below 200 million by the end of 2023. It is also capable of simultaneously eliminating its net debt. Enerplus Corporation (ERF) now looks capable of generating close to US$1.3 billion in positive cash flow during the second half of 2022 and 2023 combined at current strip prices. This would allow it to eliminate its net debt by the end of 2023 as well as reduce its outstanding share count below 200 million. It also has the option of increasing its dividend if it diverts some of its funds away from share repurchases. Enerplus is performing well operationally and I estimate its value at a bit over US$18 per share in a long-term (after 2023) $70 WTI oil and $4.00 NYMEX gas scenario now. This is up a couple dollars from my prior estimate of Enerplus's value due to its strong operational performance combined with an increase in my outlook on long-term natural gas prices. This report uses US dollars unless otherwise noted. The exchange rate used is US$1 to CAD$1.33. Canadian Asset Divestiture Enerplus sold some of its Canadian assets to Journey Energy for total consideration of around US$109 million (before closing adjustments and based on the exchange rate at that time). It is receiving around US$61 million in cash, 3 million common shares in Journey Energy and a US$34 million monthly amortizing, interest-bearing secured loan that is due October 2024. These assets had net production of approximately 3,400 BOEPD (60% oil). The sale price was relatively modest, as Journey estimates that annualized operational cash flow (based on Q4 2022 production and $90 WTI oil) would be approximately US$48 million. However, the deal advances Enerplus's attempts to exit Canada and it hadn't drilled new wells at those assets for several years. 2H 2022 Outlook Despite its Canadian asset sale, Enerplus still expects significant production growth in 2H 2022, including roughly 15% liquids production growth from Q2 2022 to Q3 2022. Based on its updated full-year guidance, Enerplus expects to average approximately 105,700 BOEPD in production during 2H 2022, including approximately 65,500 barrels per day in liquids production. At current strip prices for the second half of 2022 (around $90 WTI oil and $8 NYMEX gas), Enerplus is projected to generate $1.273 billion in oil and gas revenue before hedges. Enerplus's 2H 2022 hedges have around negative $154 million in estimated value. Units $ Per Unit $ Million USD Oil 10,241,650 $90.00 $922 NGLs 1,807,350 $28.00 $51 Natural Gas 44,424,000 $6.75 $300 Hedge Value -$154 Total $1,119 Enerplus is projected to generate $511 million in positive cash flow in the second half of 2022 before dividends. If Enerplus keeps its dividend at $0.05 per share for its December dividend payment (although it has room to increase it again), it would have $23 million in dividend payments for the second half of 2022. $ Million USD Production Taxes $89 Operating Expenses $197 Transportation $81 Cash General And Admin $22 Cash Interest $8 Capital Expenditures $190 Current Tax $20 Dividends $23 Total Expenses $630 Debt And Share Repurchases Enerplus is now projected to end 2022 with approximately $265 million in net debt. This assumes that it puts 40% of its 2H 2022 cash flow towards debt reduction and the other 60% towards dividends and share repurchases. This also includes the proceeds from its Canadian asset sale.

Snöflinga Score
Värdering	5/6
Framtida tillväxt	1/6
Tidigare resultat	3/6
Finansiell hälsa	4/6
Utdelningar	2/6

Historiska aktiekurser
Aktuell aktiekurs	CA$20.09
52 veckors högsta	CA$20.97
52 veckors lägsta	CA$13.46
Beta	2.64
1 månads förändring	3.93%
3 månaders förändring	13.06%
1 års förändring	36.20%
3 års förändring	182.16%
5 års förändring	181.77%
Förändring sedan börsintroduktionen	36.79%

	ERF	US Oil and Gas	US Marknad
7D	-0.5%	-3.4%	3.2%
1Y	36.2%	35.2%	31.0%

ERF volatility
ERF Average Weekly Movement	2.4%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	7.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

ERF grundläggande statistik
Börsvärde	US$4.09b
Vinst(TTM)	US$384.73m
Intäkter(TTM)	US$1.48b

ERF resultaträkning (TTM)
Intäkter	US$1.48b
Kostnad för intäkter	US$539.15m
Bruttovinst	US$938.28m
Övriga kostnader	US$553.56m
Intäkter	US$384.73m

Vinst per aktie (EPS)	1.88
Bruttomarginal	63.51%
Nettovinstmarginal	26.04%
Skuld/egenkapitalförhållande	14.0%

Uppgifter	Senast uppdaterad (UTC-tid)
Analys av företag	2024/05/31 06:40
Aktiekurs vid dagens slut	2024/05/30 00:00
Intäkter	2024/03/31
Årlig intjäning	2023/12/31

Paket	Uppgifter	Tidsram	Exempel US-källa
Företagets finansiella ställning	10 år	Resultaträkning Kassaflödesanalys Balansräkning	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analytikernas konsensusuppskattningar	+3 år	Prognos för finansiella poster Analytikernas prismål	Rapporter från analytiker Blue Matrix
Marknadspriser	30 år	Aktiekurser Utdelningar, splittar och åtgärder	ICE Marknadsdata SEC Form S-1
Ägarskap	10 år	Största aktieägare Insiderhandel	SEC Formulär 4 SEC Formulär 13D
Förvaltning	10 år	Ledningsgrupp Styrelse och verkställande direktörer	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Viktiga utvecklingstendenser	10 år	Företagsmeddelanden	SEC Formulär 8-K

Analytiker	Institution
Patrick O'Rourke	ATB Cormark
Grant Hofer	Barclays
Gordon Tait	BMO Capital Markets Equity Research

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Enerplus Files Form 15

Chord Energy Corporation (NasdaqGS:CHRD) completed the acquisition of Enerplus Corporation (TSX:ERF).

Enerplus Corporation(TSX:ERF) dropped from S&P/TSX Composite Index

Dividend of US$0.23 announced

Enerplus Corporation Announces Special Dividend, Payable on June 4, 2024

First quarter dividend of US$0.065 announced

Recent updates

Enerplus Files Form 15

Chord Energy Corporation (NasdaqGS:CHRD) completed the acquisition of Enerplus Corporation (TSX:ERF).

Enerplus Corporation(TSX:ERF) dropped from S&P/TSX Composite Index

Dividend of US$0.23 announced

Enerplus Corporation Announces Special Dividend, Payable on June 4, 2024

First quarter dividend of US$0.065 announced

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.32 (vs US$0.63 in 1Q 2023)

Enerplus Corporation Reaffirms Production Guidance for the Year 2024

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Enerplus Corporation to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 08, 2024

Enerplus Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2024

Enerplus Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.065 announced

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$2.16 (vs US$3.91 in FY 2022)

Enerplus Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Year 2024

Enerplus Corporation: Finishes 2023 With Another Quarter Of Production Outperformance

Enerplus Corporation to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 22, 2024

Enerplus Corporation: Good Company On Sale (Rating Upgrade)

Price target decreased by 8.7% to US$21.00

Vice President of Marketing & Midstream recently sold US$436k worth of stock

New minor risk - Dividend sustainability

Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share at 1.5% yield

New major risk - Earnings quality

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.61 (vs US$1.32 in 3Q 2022)

Enerplus Corporation Provides Production Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2023; Revises Production Guidance for the Year 2023

Enerplus: Excellent Q3 2023 Results (Rating Upgrade)

Enerplus Corporation to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 02, 2023

Enerplus: Projected To Generate Over $250 Million In H2 2023 Free Cash Flow

Upcoming dividend of US$0.06 per share at 1.4% yield

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.35 (vs US$1.02 in 2Q 2022)

Enerplus Corporation Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend for September 2023, Effective with the September 15, 2023

Enerplus: Strong Independent But The Focus On Buybacks Is Disappointing

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Enerplus Appoints Ward Polzin to Its Board of Directors

Upcoming dividend of US$0.055 per share at 1.5% yield

Enerplus Corporation Announces Retirement of Susan Mackenzie and Robert Hodgins from the Board of Directors

First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.63 (vs US$0.14 in 1Q 2022)

President recently bought US$200k worth of stock

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18%

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Enerplus Non-GAAP EPS of C$0.78

Enerplus Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 04, 2023

Enerplus: Improved Performance And Decreasing Price Realizations

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Enerplus Corporation to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 23, 2023

Senior VP & COO recently sold US$1.4m worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of US$0.055 per share

Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$1.32 (vs US$0.38 in 3Q 2021)

Enerplus Corporation: More Work To Be Done

Price target decreased to US$21.22

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Enerplus May Generate $1.3 Billion In Positive Cash Flow In H2 2022 And 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.05 per share

Now 21% undervalued

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$1.01 (vs US$0.19 loss in 2Q 2021)

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