Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited

JSE:APN Stock Report

Market Cap: R108.5b

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Valuation

Is APN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of APN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: APN (ZAR243.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR395.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: APN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for APN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

APN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.5x
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does APN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for APN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.6x
AIP Adcock Ingram Holdings
10.7xn/aR9.4b
HIK Hikma Pharmaceuticals
29.4x16.0%UK£4.4b
002653 Haisco Pharmaceutical Group
102.6x36.9%CN¥36.8b
HLUN B H. Lundbeck
15.8x8.9%kr.37.0b
APN Aspen Pharmacare Holdings
22.3x27.7%R108.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: APN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the peer average (39.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does APN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: APN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the Global Pharmaceuticals industry average (24x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is APN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

APN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.3x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate APN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst APN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR243.74
R243.65
-0.04%
5.7%R268.00R230.00n/a5
Jun ’25R232.36
R243.65
+4.9%
5.7%R268.00R230.00n/a5
May ’25R224.27
R236.25
+5.3%
3.1%R250.00R230.00n/a5
Apr ’25R219.38
R228.65
+4.2%
5.9%R250.00R211.00n/a5
Mar ’25R196.72
R214.69
+9.1%
4.9%R228.00R196.44n/a5
Feb ’25R194.00
R206.29
+6.3%
7.0%R228.00R189.00n/a5
Jan ’25R203.50
R202.49
-0.5%
6.6%R228.00R189.00n/a5
Dec ’24R185.26
R202.49
+9.3%
6.6%R228.00R189.00n/a5
Nov ’24R170.11
R202.49
+19.0%
6.6%R228.00R189.00n/a5
Oct ’24R171.82
R202.49
+17.8%
6.6%R228.00R189.00n/a5
Sep ’24R168.84
R209.60
+24.1%
9.4%R233.00R180.00n/a5
Aug ’24R193.83
R208.60
+7.6%
9.1%R233.00R180.00n/a5
Jul ’24R183.62
R208.60
+13.6%
9.1%R233.00R180.00n/a5
Jun ’24R175.21
R208.60
+19.1%
9.1%R233.00R180.00R232.365
May ’24R182.80
R208.60
+14.1%
9.1%R233.00R180.00R224.275
Apr ’24R183.18
R208.60
+13.9%
9.1%R233.00R180.00R219.385
Mar ’24R160.75
R184.18
+14.6%
12.8%R227.00R158.00R196.726
Feb ’24R148.18
R184.18
+24.3%
12.8%R227.00R158.00R194.006
Jan ’24R136.33
R184.67
+35.5%
12.8%R227.00R158.00R203.506
Dec ’23R135.68
R184.67
+36.1%
12.8%R227.00R158.00R185.266
Nov ’23R150.69
R184.67
+22.5%
12.8%R227.00R158.00R170.116
Oct ’23R134.28
R191.25
+42.4%
13.3%R227.00R158.00R171.824
Sep ’23R156.89
R219.25
+39.7%
17.1%R281.00R180.00R168.844
Aug ’23R146.69
R219.25
+49.5%
17.1%R281.00R180.00R193.834
Jul ’23R140.52
R247.75
+76.3%
16.4%R295.00R205.00R183.624
Jun ’23R154.88
R247.75
+60.0%
16.4%R295.00R205.00R175.214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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