Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of APN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

APN (ZAR170.25) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (ZAR196.55)

Is APN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of APN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: APN (ZAR170.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR196.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: APN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for APN?

Key metric: As APN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for APN. This is calculated by dividing APN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is APN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17.2x
Earnings	R4.40b
Market Cap	R76.09b

APN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.7x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does APN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for APN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.4x
AIP Adcock Ingram Holdings	12.2x	n/a	R9.9b
ASC Ascendis Health	10.7x	n/a	R450.5m
KLBF Kalbe Farma	21.7x	9.6%	Rp66.9t
002821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin)	40.8x	29.9%	CN¥30.4b
APN Aspen Pharmacare Holdings	17.2x	22.4%	R76.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: APN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does APN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: APN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the African Pharmaceuticals industry average (10.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is APN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

APN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate APN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst APN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	R170.25	R226.82 +33.2%	6.6%	R238.00	R201.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	R181.41	R233.82 +28.9%	1.4%	R238.00	R229.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	R195.00	R237.57 +21.8%	3.3%	R250.00	R229.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	R239.99	R245.32 +2.2%	6.2%	R268.00	R230.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	R251.33	R243.65 -3.1%	5.7%	R268.00	R230.00	n/a	5
Jul ’25	R228.35	R243.65 +6.7%	5.7%	R268.00	R230.00	n/a	5
Jun ’25	R232.36	R243.65 +4.9%	5.7%	R268.00	R230.00	n/a	5
May ’25	R224.27	R236.25 +5.3%	3.1%	R250.00	R230.00	n/a	5
Apr ’25	R219.38	R228.65 +4.2%	5.9%	R250.00	R211.00	n/a	5
Mar ’25	R196.72	R214.69 +9.1%	4.9%	R228.00	R196.44	n/a	5
Feb ’25	R194.00	R206.29 +6.3%	7.0%	R228.00	R189.00	n/a	5
Jan ’25	R203.50	R202.49 -0.5%	6.6%	R228.00	R189.00	n/a	5
Dec ’24	R185.26	R202.49 +9.3%	6.6%	R228.00	R189.00	n/a	5
Nov ’24	R170.11	R202.49 +19.0%	6.6%	R228.00	R189.00	R181.41	5
Oct ’24	R171.82	R202.49 +17.8%	6.6%	R228.00	R189.00	R195.00	5
Sep ’24	R168.84	R209.60 +24.1%	9.4%	R233.00	R180.00	R239.99	5
Aug ’24	R193.83	R208.60 +7.6%	9.1%	R233.00	R180.00	R251.33	5
Jul ’24	R183.62	R208.60 +13.6%	9.1%	R233.00	R180.00	R228.35	5
Jun ’24	R175.21	R208.60 +19.1%	9.1%	R233.00	R180.00	R232.36	5
May ’24	R182.80	R208.60 +14.1%	9.1%	R233.00	R180.00	R224.27	5
Apr ’24	R183.18	R208.60 +13.9%	9.1%	R233.00	R180.00	R219.38	5
Mar ’24	R160.75	R184.18 +14.6%	12.8%	R227.00	R158.00	R196.72	6
Feb ’24	R148.18	R184.18 +24.3%	12.8%	R227.00	R158.00	R194.00	6
Jan ’24	R136.33	R184.67 +35.5%	12.8%	R227.00	R158.00	R203.50	6
Dec ’23	R135.68	R184.67 +36.1%	12.8%	R227.00	R158.00	R185.26	6
Nov ’23	R150.69	R184.67 +22.5%	12.8%	R227.00	R158.00	R170.11	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.