Mondi plc

JSE:MNP Stock Report

Market Cap: R119.7b

Mondi Valuation

Is MNP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNP (ZAR272.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (ZAR324.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNP is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNP?

Key metric: As MNP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MNP. This is calculated by dividing MNP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MNP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
Earnings€392.00m
Market Cap€6.34b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MNP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MNP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.4x
SAP Sappi
50.5x43.0%R30.2b
HAR Harmony Gold Mining
13x29.4%R111.3b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
5.3x-9.1%R107.8b
GFI Gold Fields
20.7x39.4%R252.1b
MNP Mondi
16.2x15.8%R5.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MNP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MNP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Forestry Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MNP 16.2xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies35PE01632486480+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the Global Forestry industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ratio11.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR272.50
R354.56
+30.1%
10.0%R417.58R292.81n/a10
Nov ’25R286.78
R357.34
+24.6%
9.1%R416.29R292.34n/a10
Oct ’25R325.00
R388.35
+19.5%
9.1%R451.74R329.67n/a10
Sep ’25R344.85
R396.79
+15.1%
9.7%R466.94R340.76n/a10
Aug ’25R361.00
R391.98
+8.6%
13.1%R504.29R316.43n/a10
Jul ’25R351.46
R394.51
+12.2%
12.1%R502.05R326.74n/a9
Jun ’25R371.47
R393.45
+5.9%
12.1%R500.86R325.97n/a9
May ’25R359.55
R365.37
+1.6%
9.4%R397.55R310.50n/a7
Apr ’25R333.92
R363.00
+8.7%
13.8%R407.25R284.18n/a5
Mar ’25R339.30
R372.06
+9.7%
13.8%R417.28R291.17n/a5
Feb ’25R330.40
R393.51
+19.1%
12.8%R447.00R315.52n/a9
Jan ’25R399.30
R372.73
-6.7%
13.2%R436.61R292.06n/a9
Dec ’24R370.61
R372.72
+0.6%
12.2%R435.34R294.28n/a9
Nov ’24R335.28
R371.02
+10.7%
12.2%R434.20R293.51R286.789
Oct ’24R347.98
R370.22
+6.4%
7.8%R407.61R313.10R325.009
Sep ’24R342.62
R364.16
+6.3%
9.6%R409.42R286.59R344.8510
Aug ’24R346.60
R373.70
+7.8%
12.1%R440.53R275.40R361.009
Jul ’24R317.35
R387.86
+22.2%
11.8%R440.35R281.39R351.469
Jun ’24R338.17
R389.78
+15.3%
11.6%R444.09R282.12R371.479
May ’24R318.63
R384.92
+20.8%
10.0%R430.40R302.62R359.558
Apr ’24R309.24
R388.91
+25.8%
10.8%R440.51R294.73R333.928
Mar ’24R343.57
R420.93
+22.5%
9.1%R488.38R356.96R339.309
Feb ’24R366.70
R433.53
+18.2%
6.3%R471.35R383.26R330.409
Jan ’24R320.10
R433.78
+35.5%
6.1%R469.94R381.28R399.309
Dec ’23R370.15
R414.05
+11.9%
5.9%R450.84R365.77R370.6110
Nov ’23R339.26
R424.83
+25.2%
7.4%R479.54R364.18R335.2810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Merafe Resources

R3.7b

Engages in the mining and beneficiation of chrome ore into ferrochrome.

MRF

R1.49

7D

0%

1Y

23.1%

Afrimat

R9.7b

Operates as a mining and materials company primarily in the southern African region.

AFT

R64.15

7D

0.9%

1Y

12.8%

Mpact

R4.3b

Engages in the paper and plastic packaging and recycling business in South Africa.

MPT

R28.85

7D

1.1%

1Y

-0.5%