Kumba Iron Ore (JSE:KIO) shareholders have earned a 3.4% CAGR over the last five years

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Kumba Iron Ore Limited (JSE:KIO) share price has gained 17% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 35%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, Kumba Iron Ore actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 0.08% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. It could be that the revenue decline of 3.9% per year is viewed as evidence that Kumba Iron Ore is shrinking. With revenue weak, and increased payouts of cash, the market might be taking the view that its best days are behind it.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

Take a more thorough look at Kumba Iron Ore's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kumba Iron Ore the TSR over the last 5 years was 18%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Kumba Iron Ore provided a TSR of 9.5% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 3% over half a decade This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Kumba Iron Ore (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on South African exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.