BHP Group Limited

JSE:BHG Stock Report

Market Cap: R2.4t

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BHG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

R398.82
Fair Value
17.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BHG (ZAR466.78) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR398.82)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BHG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHG?

Key metric: As BHG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHG. This is calculated by dividing BHG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.3x
EarningsUS$9.02b
Market CapUS$138.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average51.4x
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
103.3x43.96%R34.1b
GFI Gold Fields
19.8x16.40%R636.6b
RIO Rio Tinto Group
11.4x4.43%UK£93.0b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
71x40.01%R107.4b
BHG BHP Group
15.3x4.64%R212.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the peer average (51.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BHG 15.3xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.3x
Fair PE Ratio16.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR466.78
R503.54
+7.87%
5.92%R543.32R442.18n/a15
Nov ’26R493.35
R496.24
+0.59%
7.53%R537.79R402.92n/a15
Oct ’26R481.00
R493.02
+2.50%
6.79%R533.88R405.48n/a15
Sep ’26R488.05
R494.84
+1.39%
6.32%R540.42R413.74n/a15
Aug ’26R454.99
R499.46
+9.77%
6.50%R546.81R427.69n/a15
Jul ’26R425.85
R479.98
+12.71%
6.22%R528.04R439.24n/a15
Jun ’26R440.25
R493.59
+12.12%
7.14%R558.75R435.98n/a15
May ’26R438.66
R509.26
+16.09%
7.14%R578.00R451.00n/a15
Apr ’26R446.68
R517.81
+15.92%
6.74%R564.81R456.71n/a15
Mar ’26R449.31
R528.84
+17.70%
6.28%R571.72R474.72n/a15
Feb ’26R462.15
R515.63
+11.57%
6.68%R566.66R461.59n/a15
Jan ’26R460.38
R545.21
+18.43%
6.68%R590.74R476.62n/a15
Dec ’25R470.81
R536.08
+13.86%
6.05%R587.13R471.58n/a15
Nov ’25R492.90
R534.67
+8.47%
7.12%R607.11R461.48R493.3515
Oct ’25R535.42
R544.44
+1.69%
8.60%R624.73R460.10R481.0016
Sep ’25R486.90
R551.72
+13.31%
7.96%R637.98R483.13R488.0516
Aug ’25R495.61
R567.69
+14.54%
8.27%R643.87R492.44R454.9916
Jul ’25R525.00
R568.01
+8.19%
8.31%R644.76R488.01R425.8515
Jun ’25R553.63
R582.53
+5.22%
8.76%R659.14R498.89R440.2514
May ’25R526.80
R571.92
+8.56%
8.62%R643.26R492.83R438.6612
Apr ’25R545.52
R582.43
+6.77%
7.49%R652.93R520.84R446.6816
Mar ’25R554.36
R595.15
+7.36%
7.17%R663.30R531.25R449.3116
Feb ’25R572.75
R591.46
+3.27%
9.10%R732.93R528.45R462.1515
Jan ’25R633.43
R575.89
-9.08%
10.55%R691.98R476.44R460.3815
Dec ’24R584.10
R573.32
-1.85%
11.09%R711.56R489.93R470.8115
Nov ’24R534.16
R553.42
+3.60%
9.69%R699.70R481.49R492.9016
R504.59
Fair Value
7.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/26 00:39
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/26 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 56 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Caroline LearmonthBarclays