Anglo American Platinum Limited Just Missed EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Anglo American Platinum Limited (JSE:AMS) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to R618 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of R26.83 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit R109b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Anglo American Platinum

Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Anglo American Platinum provided consensus estimates of R97.6b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a chunky 10% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to R31.39. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R97.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of R64.28 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at R664, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Anglo American Platinum analyst has a price target of R800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R488. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Anglo American Platinum is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Anglo American Platinum. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R664, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Anglo American Platinum analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Anglo American Platinum that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.