Anglo American plc

JSE:AGL Stock Report

Market Cap: R665.6b

Anglo American Valuation

Is AGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGL (ZAR549.12) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR427.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGL?

Key metric: As AGL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AGL. This is calculated by dividing AGL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AGL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.2x
SalesUS$29.44b
Market CapUS$36.78b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AGL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
2.7x8.0%R31.2b
GFI Gold Fields
2.9x16.1%R230.5b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
1.4x-0.09%R156.1b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
1.3x-5.2%R106.5b
AGL Anglo American
1.2x1.6%R29.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AGL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the ZA Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACL ArcelorMittal South Africa
0.03x10.4%US$78.21m
HLM Hulamin
0.08xn/aUS$60.57m
CMO Chrometco
0.1xn/aUS$8.36m
No more companies available in this PS range
AGL 1.2xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies3PS00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AGL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR549.12
R573.66
+4.5%
12.4%R702.83R458.72n/a17
Nov ’25R549.41
R563.79
+2.6%
11.1%R663.88R462.10n/a17
Oct ’25R563.62
R567.35
+0.7%
10.9%R673.46R461.49n/a17
Sep ’25R515.65
R586.70
+13.8%
11.4%R707.60R479.07n/a17
Aug ’25R536.06
R611.50
+14.1%
10.5%R728.12R493.18n/a17
Jul ’25R562.00
R615.28
+9.5%
11.3%R719.86R464.69n/a18
Jun ’25R593.66
R641.95
+8.1%
12.2%R763.75R482.31n/a17
May ’25R617.00
R572.71
-7.2%
18.1%R725.98R371.14n/a14
Apr ’25R465.16
R520.42
+11.9%
14.3%R646.36R382.63n/a19
Mar ’25R416.88
R526.62
+26.3%
14.1%R654.49R387.85n/a19
Feb ’25R443.09
R540.02
+21.9%
17.2%R791.32R378.44n/a19
Jan ’25R473.49
R545.45
+15.2%
18.8%R788.74R349.15n/a18
Dec ’24R540.76
R624.91
+15.6%
11.0%R801.46R523.26n/a18
Nov ’24R474.80
R617.84
+30.1%
12.1%R801.27R474.47R549.4118
Oct ’24R525.27
R637.04
+21.3%
12.9%R827.95R518.54R563.6218
Sep ’24R506.30
R641.34
+26.7%
12.1%R823.24R522.09R515.6519
Aug ’24R546.46
R629.89
+15.3%
12.2%R797.64R505.86R536.0619
Jul ’24R537.22
R690.67
+28.6%
13.7%R820.52R533.38R562.0019
Jun ’24R568.75
R773.42
+36.0%
16.1%R1,047.26R548.28R593.6620
May ’24R560.70
R729.48
+30.1%
16.4%R981.45R511.43R617.0019
Apr ’24R586.00
R697.51
+19.0%
17.4%R920.43R491.17R465.1619
Mar ’24R651.93
R737.32
+13.1%
16.2%R937.43R560.84R416.8820
Feb ’24R718.92
R711.62
-1.0%
16.3%R901.76R526.92R443.0920
Jan ’24R663.34
R680.03
+2.5%
14.6%R846.67R525.05R473.4921
Dec ’23R717.67
R703.46
-2.0%
14.7%R877.22R490.18R540.7621
Nov ’23R571.20
R706.85
+23.7%
15.3%R906.95R506.79R474.8021

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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