Stock Analysis
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that RFG Holdings Limited (JSE:RFG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for RFG Holdings
How Much Debt Does RFG Holdings Carry?
As you can see below, RFG Holdings had R527.5m of debt at September 2024, down from R611.6m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of R187.1m, its net debt is less, at about R340.4m.
A Look At RFG Holdings' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that RFG Holdings had liabilities of R1.80b falling due within a year, and liabilities of R368.3m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R187.1m as well as receivables valued at R1.39b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total R598.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given RFG Holdings has a market capitalization of R4.94b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
RFG Holdings has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.31. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.3 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also good is that RFG Holdings grew its EBIT at 10% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine RFG Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, RFG Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 54% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
The good news is that RFG Holdings's demonstrated ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its interest cover is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that RFG Holdings takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for RFG Holdings you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About JSE:RFG
RFG Holdings
Manufactures and markets convenience meal solutions in South Africa, the Kingdom of Eswatini, and internationally.