Deneb Investments Limited's (JSE:DNB) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

It's not a stretch to say that Deneb Investments Limited's (JSE:DNB) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in South Africa, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

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For instance, Deneb Investments' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Deneb Investments

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Deneb Investments' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Deneb Investments would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 45% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 15% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Deneb Investments' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Deneb Investments currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Deneb Investments is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit concerning.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.