TransAlta Corporation

NYSE:TAC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

TransAlta Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

TransAlta is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 91.2% and 6.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 99.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -9.9% in 3 years.

Key information

91.2%

Earnings growth rate

99.39%

EPS growth rate

Renewable Energy earnings growth24.9%
Revenue growth rate6.7%
Future return on equity-9.94%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated04 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Aug 03

TransAlta Q2: Strong Execution Through Temporary Headwinds

Summary TransAlta Corporation remains a buy, supported by resilient Q2 results despite low Alberta energy prices and climate-driven hydro declines. TAC's contract management insulated earnings, securing average prices of $121/MWh versus $29/MWh spot, and reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of CAD 950M–1.05B. I see TAC as a strategic long-term play on AI-driven electrification, with mid-cap utilities poised for re-rating as energy demand accelerates. Current valuation at 14x EV/EBITDA and recent price weakness present an attractive accumulation opportunity, with medium-term upside potential toward $18. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 28

TransAlta: Cratering Alberta Power Prices Offset By Option Premiums

Summary We were exiting our TransAlta position at the time we last wrote about it. The stock has roundtripped back to the same point. The setup seems similar, but there is a much bigger margin of safety today. We tell you why we think the common with covered calls, generating 25% yields, is better than the preferred. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

TransAlta's Growth Story Has Holes And I'm Not Buying It

Summary TransAlta Corporation faces a challenging year with a 20% stock decline, weak grades, and Alberta’s collapsing power prices impacting revenue stability. Despite market headwinds, TransAlta’s efficiency, strategic acquisitions, and expansion in renewable energy projects bolster its long-term growth potential. The company maintains strong free cash flow and liquidity, with significant investments in data centers and renewable energy projects supporting future growth. Given regulatory uncertainties and declining earnings, I rate TransAlta as a hold, pending stabilization of earnings and successful execution of growth initiatives. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 07

TransAlta: The Transition Must Accelerate

Summary TransAlta is a Canadian power producer, still generating the majority of revenues from fossil fuels but with an important pipeline of renewables plants under development. Its hybrid structure could make it a good investment opportunity in the transition to clean energy, with the thesis supported by the result of my DCF model. However, three major risks are at stake: high dependence on electricity prices, large revenues concentration in Alberta and delays in construction of renewable projects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 13

TransAlta: A Major Player, A Good Buy At Below $10.5/Share

Summary TransAlta is a utility company that has been undervalued and has not delivered a high dividend yield. The company has a solid market cap and generates significant free cash flow. TransAlta has plans for significant growth in clean electricity generation and has several high-value projects in the pipeline. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TAC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CAD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20282,6541965399352
12/31/20272,3231595017613
12/31/20262,111534105512
6/30/20262,266-76438667N/A
3/31/20262,212-223505762N/A
12/31/20252,405-190384646N/A
9/30/20252,484-193355630N/A
6/30/20252,507-167310608N/A
3/31/20252,6561267559N/A
12/31/20242,845177469796N/A
9/30/20242,791158442891N/A
6/30/20243,1705668031,343N/A
3/31/20243,2135725761,246N/A
12/31/20233,3556445761,464N/A
9/30/20233,5855654141,505N/A
6/30/20233,497254-1791,028N/A
3/31/20233,330112-255888N/A
12/31/20222,9764-72877N/A
9/30/20222,73289-69580N/A
6/30/20222,653-428493986N/A
3/31/20222,814-3607121,195N/A
12/31/20212,721-5765121,001N/A
9/30/20212,655-6654931,057N/A
6/30/20212,319-345136704N/A
3/31/20212,137-393220745N/A
12/31/20202,101-336202702N/A
9/30/20202,166-103391773N/A
6/30/20202,24584411844N/A
3/31/20202,305144N/A981N/A
12/31/20192,34752N/A849N/A
9/30/20192,360-136N/A800N/A
6/30/20192,360-273N/A631N/A
3/31/20192,309-378N/A477N/A
12/31/20182,249-248N/A820N/A
9/30/20182,265-271N/A769N/A
6/30/20182,260-212N/A811N/A
3/31/20182,317-125N/A770N/A
12/31/20172,307-190N/A626N/A
9/30/20172,38616N/A667N/A
6/30/20172,41831N/A694N/A
3/31/20172,40755N/A750N/A
12/31/20162,397117N/A744N/A
9/30/20162,27549N/A740N/A
6/30/20162,296215N/A712N/A
3/31/20162,24278N/A554N/A
12/31/20152,267-24N/A432N/A
9/30/20152,390131N/A564N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TAC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: TAC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: TAC is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TAC's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TAC's revenue (6.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TAC is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/20 09:24
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/18 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

TransAlta Corporation is covered by 19 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan HeywoodATB Cormark
Benjamin PhamBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Julien Dumoulin-SmithBofA Global Research