Pinnacle West Capital Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Pinnacle West Capital is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 9.8% and 5.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.2% in 3 years.
Key information
9.8%
Earnings growth rate
7.03%
EPS growth rate
| Electric Utilities earnings growth | 11.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.2% |
| Future return on equity | 9.24% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 05 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 05
Pinnacle West: An AI Load Growth Beneficiary, But Fairly Priced (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Pinnacle West (PNW) is upgraded from sell to hold as shares approach fair value after a strong technical breakout and solid Q1 results. PNW delivered Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.27 and revenue of $1.15B, beating expectations, with robust 9.4% retail sales growth driven by 14.6% C&I demand. Management reaffirmed FY 2026 EPS guidance of $4.55–$4.75 and targets 5–7% long-term EPS growth, supported by $10.4B capex through 2028. Key risks include higher interest rates, regulatory outcomes on the 2025 APS Rate Case, and operational challenges from surging AI-driven demand. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 27
PNW: Regulatory Outcomes And 2026 Earnings Guidance Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
The analyst price target for Pinnacle West Capital has been adjusted slightly higher to around $106, as analysts factor in updated fair value estimates, modest tweaks to revenue growth and margin assumptions, and refreshed P/E expectations following a series of mixed but generally upward target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Pinnacle West Capital reflects a mix of cautious optimism and valuation discipline, with several firms updating price targets after Q4 results and model refreshes.Narrative Update • Apr 12
PNW: Regulatory Progress And 2026 Earnings Guidance Will Shape Core Holding Potential
Analyst price targets for Pinnacle West Capital have moved higher, with the fair value estimate rising by about $2.63 to $104.85 as analysts factor in updated models following recent Q4 results, modestly adjusted growth and profitability assumptions, and a slightly higher future P/E of 19.89x. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Pinnacle West Capital point to a cluster of higher price targets following Q4 results, with several firms recalibrating their models and ratings.Narrative Update • Mar 29
PNW: Regulatory Execution And 2026 Earnings Outlook Will Shape Core Holding Appeal
The analyst price target for Pinnacle West Capital has edged higher by about $0.21 to $102.21, reflecting a series of recent target increases as analysts factor in updated models, Q4 results, and ongoing regulatory execution as key drivers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Pinnacle West Capital points to a mixed but generally constructive tone, with several firms adjusting their models and fine tuning views on regulatory execution, earnings quality, and relative valuation within the utilities group.Narrative Update • Mar 15
PNW: Regulatory Progress And Earnings Quality Will Shape Core Holding Case
The analyst fair value estimate for Pinnacle West Capital has moved from $100.85 to $102.00, reflecting a series of higher Street price targets clustered in the $96 to $109 range, as analysts factor in recent earnings, updated models, and the importance of regulatory execution over the coming year. Analyst Commentary Street research on Pinnacle West Capital has shifted toward higher fair value ranges, but with clear conditions attached, especially around regulation and earnings quality.Narrative Update • Mar 01
PNW: Regulatory Execution And Sector Trends Will Shape Core Holding Potential
The updated analyst price target for Pinnacle West Capital moves to $100.85 from $95.92, reflecting higher Street targets in a $96 to $109 range as analysts factor in Q4 results and the view that better regulatory execution could support the company becoming a core utility holding. Analyst Commentary Street research on Pinnacle West Capital has been active around the latest Q4 print, with several firms updating models and resetting price targets in a fairly tight band.Narrative Update • Feb 15
PNW: Arizona Regulation And Sector Repricing Will Shape Steady Earnings Expectations
Analyst price targets on Pinnacle West Capital have shifted in a mixed but slightly higher range, with recent changes including $4 increases from RBC Capital and Morgan Stanley, along with $1 and $5 trims from Wells Fargo and Barclays, as analysts update their views on regulated utilities and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Pinnacle West Capital show both supportive and cautious views, with adjustments reflecting broader moves across regulated utilities and refreshed valuation work.Narrative Update • Feb 01
PNW: Arizona Regulation And Data Demand Will Shape Steady Earnings Expectations
Analysts have made a modest trim to their Pinnacle West Capital price target to about $95.92, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples following mixed recent target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Pinnacle West Capital show a mix of cautious and constructive views, with several firms adjusting price targets both higher and lower.Analysis Article • Jan 09
The Returns At Pinnacle West Capital (NYSE:PNW) Aren't Growing
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a...Narrative Update • Dec 06
PNW: Arizona Regulation And Data Demand Will Shape A Balanced Earnings Path
Pinnacle West Capital's analyst price target nudged slightly lower to about $96 from roughly $97 as analysts balance improving earnings visibility and load driven growth against lingering regulatory uncertainty and only gradual progress in Arizona's rate environment. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Pinnacle West Capital reflects a generally balanced stance, with most firms maintaining neutral to moderately positive ratings while fine tuning price targets around the mid to upper $90 range.Narrative Update • Nov 22
PNW: Improving Arizona Regulation And Data Demand Will Shape Earnings Outlook
Pinnacle West Capital's analyst price target has modestly declined, dropping from $96.07 to $95.93 per share. Analysts cite ongoing uncertainties around regulatory improvements in Arizona and tempered expectations for near-term earnings growth, even though there are positive long-term structural trends.Analysis Article • Nov 06
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation ( NYSE:PNW ) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how...Narrative Update • Nov 06
PNW: Future Sector Tailwinds And Regulatory Changes Will Shape Earnings Path
Pinnacle West Capital's analyst price target was modestly reduced by $0.18 to $96.07. Analysts cite steady sector conditions, regulatory uncertainty in Arizona, and incremental updates to growth and profit outlooks as supporting factors.Analysis Article • Oct 28
Pinnacle West Capital (NYSE:PNW) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.91
The board of Pinnacle West Capital Corporation ( NYSE:PNW ) has announced that the dividend on 1st of December will be...Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analyst Commentary Highlights Modest Valuation Increase for Pinnacle West Capital Amid Sector Tailwinds
Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Pinnacle West Capital, raising the price target by $1.33 to $96.25. This adjustment is attributed to improved revenue growth expectations driven by sector trends and ongoing regulatory developments.Narrative Update • Sep 17
Grid Modernization And Arizona Expansion Will Create Future Value
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Pinnacle West Capital to $94.92, reflecting cautious optimism driven by improving regulatory trends and growth prospects in Arizona, offset by a more moderate outlook for revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note improving structural trends in Arizona's regulatory environment, citing the 2025 General Rate Case (GRC) as a key driver for reduced regulatory lag.Analysis Article • Aug 29
Calculating The Fair Value Of Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE:PNW)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Pinnacle West Capital is US$89.64 based on Dividend Discount Model With...Analysis Article • Aug 04
Pinnacle West Capital's (NYSE:PNW) Returns Have Hit A Wall
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • May 30
Here's Why Pinnacle West Capital (NYSE:PNW) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Seeking Alpha • Mar 14
Pinnacle West: Steady Income Generator For Sleep-Well-At-Night Returns
Summary Pinnacle West Capital has demonstrated strong business fundamentals and growth catalysts on the horizon. PNW benefits from favorable regulatory developments, robust residential growth, and increasing demand from Arizona's expanding semiconductor industry. With a solid balance sheet, reliable operations, and a well-covered 3.9% dividend yield, PNW remains an attractive income investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 23
Pinnacle West Is Back To Fair Valuation
Summary Pinnacle West is currently overvalued, with limited growth prospects and a forecasted annual return below 5%, leading me to rate it as a "Hold." Despite recent regulatory improvements and population growth in Arizona, PNW's EPS growth is expected to be modest, and its dividend growth is likely to remain low. The company's significant capital expenditure plans and debt obligations further constrain its upside potential, making other utilities like Enel more attractive investments. My target price for PNW is $80/share, reflecting normalized earnings and investment plans, and I recommend holding rather than buying at current valuations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 25
New Customer Rates And Calculated Investments Propel Revenue Growth In C&I Sectors
Increased revenue potential through new customer rates and sales growth in Commercial & Industrial sectors.Seeking Alpha • Aug 16
Wait On Pinnacle West Capital For Lower Interest Rates
Summary Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is a $9.8 billion market cap company offering a 4.1% dividend and a low 0.50 beta. The company owns the largest nuclear power generating station in the US, benefiting from increased electricity demand from data centers. Pinnacle West is expected to benefit if interest rates are cut, but investors may want to wait for a stock price drop for a larger dividend payout. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 12
Pinnacle West: Shares Look Fully Valued Now, But Growth Is On The Horizon
Summary This is Arizona’s largest electric utility, now with 1.4 million customers and Phoenix and Flagstaff in its territory. It weathered an adverse regulatory decision in 2021 that cut its earnings, but this is now overturned and reasonable rates restored. Earnings outlooks were revised upward and dividend growth at higher rates should resume next year. Data centers and population growth in Arizona are expected to increase electric demand, benefiting Pinnacle West as the primary utility in the state. It remains an attractive dividend stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 10
Pinnacle West: Demand For Its Electricity Is Booming
Summary Pinnacle West, the primary electric utility in Phoenix, is expected to benefit from the city's booming population and job growth. The company has a strong growth pipeline, with plans to invest in transmission and generation assets, leading to a substantial increase in its rate base. Despite its positive outlook, PNW is currently undervalued compared to its peers, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 6,286 | 818 | N/A | 1,883 | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 5,941 | 733 | N/A | 1,725 | 12 |
| 12/31/2026 | 5,539 | 585 | N/A | 1,571 | 12 |
| 3/31/2026 | 5,457 | 654 | -1,039 | 1,638 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 5,340 | 617 | -867 | 1,805 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 5,307 | 594 | -767 | 1,768 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 5,255 | 576 | -839 | 1,736 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 5,205 | 587 | -735 | 1,664 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 5,125 | 609 | -688 | 1,610 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 5,021 | 616 | -751 | 1,544 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 4,890 | 619 | -715 | 1,307 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 4,703 | 522 | -619 | 1,343 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 4,696 | 502 | -682 | 1,208 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 4,714 | 478 | -746 | 1,043 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 4,546 | 406 | -735 | 1,091 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 4,486 | 463 | -685 | 1,112 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 4,324 | 484 | -494 | 1,241 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 4,114 | 535 | -536 | 1,231 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 3,952 | 549 | -521 | 1,136 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 3,891 | 600 | -523 | 999 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 3,804 | 619 | -635 | 860 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 3,746 | 572 | -528 | 855 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 3,692 | 578 | -441 | 910 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 3,622 | 556 | -385 | 985 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 3,587 | 551 | -379 | 966 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 3,516 | 634 | -428 | 894 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 3,453 | 600 | -363 | 980 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 3,393 | 550 | -321 | 967 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 3,471 | 538 | N/A | 957 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 3,557 | 500 | N/A | 1,152 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 3,634 | 503 | N/A | 1,227 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 3,739 | 526 | N/A | 1,284 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 3,691 | 511 | N/A | 1,277 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 3,695 | 507 | N/A | 1,306 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 3,610 | 468 | N/A | 1,223 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 3,580 | 468 | N/A | 1,145 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 3,565 | 488 | N/A | 1,118 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 3,545 | 520 | N/A | 1,030 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 3,528 | 507 | N/A | 891 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 3,499 | 461 | N/A | 1,019 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 3,499 | 442 | N/A | 1,023 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 3,494 | 430 | N/A | 1,038 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 3,526 | 424 | N/A | 1,123 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 3,501 | 426 | N/A | 1,094 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 3,495 | 437 | N/A | 1,094 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 3,487 | 402 | N/A | 1,034 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 3,461 | 388 | N/A | 1,029 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PNW's forecast earnings growth (9.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PNW's earnings (9.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PNW's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: PNW's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PNW's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PNW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 19:13 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is covered by 26 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Gary Hovis | Argus Research Company |
| Daniel Ford | Barclays |
| Nicholas Campanella | Barclays |