There's Reason For Concern Over NiSource Inc.'s (NYSE:NI) Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.9x NiSource Inc. (NYSE:NI) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent earnings growth for NiSource has been in line with the market. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this modest earnings performance will accelerate. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for NiSource

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on NiSource.

How Is NiSource's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, NiSource would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 3.4% gain to the company's bottom line. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 39% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.5% per annum during the coming three years according to the ten analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 11% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that NiSource is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On NiSource's P/E

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that NiSource currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for NiSource (1 is concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.