National Fuel Gas (NFG): Exploring Valuation After Strong Year-to-Date Share Price Gains

National Fuel Gas (NFG) shares have seen some movement lately, and investors may be eyeing the stock’s valuation in light of recent performance. With a strong year-to-date return, people are now reassessing how the company compares to others.

See our latest analysis for National Fuel Gas.

National Fuel Gas has enjoyed robust momentum this year, reflected in its 30.6% year-to-date share price return. Even after a recent pullback, the longer-term story stands out, with total shareholder return over five years climbing to an impressive 125%. That strong multi-year run suggests investors see solid value and growth potential in the business, despite occasional short-term volatility.

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But with such strong gains already on the scoreboard and shares still trading below analysts’ price targets, the real question is whether National Fuel Gas is truly undervalued now or if the market has already priced in its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 21.4% Undervalued

With the most widely followed narrative suggesting National Fuel Gas could be worth notably more than its latest close, attention is turning to the key assumptions underpinning this optimistic view.

Vertical integration across E&P, Midstream, and Utility segments allows National Fuel Gas to capture cost synergies and maximize returns from each development dollar. This structure supports ongoing margin expansion and steady long-term earnings growth. Favorable regulatory mechanisms (modernization trackers, rate settlements) and a strong balance sheet enable reinvestment and capital return. At the same time, robust hedging and firm sales portfolios provide insulation from commodity volatility, which helps stabilize cash flow, support the dividend, and potentially rerate the stock's valuation.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what enables this story? Analysts are penciling in a margin surge, ambitious multi-year growth, and a valuation reset by 2028. Which assumptions could power gains? Unpack the projections shaping this bullish fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $102 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy shifts toward decarbonization or rising regulatory costs could challenge National Fuel Gas's expected growth and put the bullish case to the test in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this National Fuel Gas narrative.

Build Your Own National Fuel Gas Narrative

If you're inspired to dig into the numbers or want to chart your own outlook, you can outline a fresh perspective in just minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your National Fuel Gas research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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