American States Water (NYSE:AWR) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AWR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AWR ($87.59) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($51.22)

AWR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	4/6

AWR Stock Overview

American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 8.01% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 1.82% is not well covered by earnings

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

American States Water Competitors

California Water Service Group

NYSE:CWT

US$3.3b

Middlesex Water

NasdaqGS:MSEX

US$1.6b

SJW Group

NYSE:SJW

US$2.0b

York Water

NasdaqGS:YORW

US$622.7m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for American States Water
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$87.59
52 Week High	US$103.77
52 Week Low	US$71.22
Beta	0.28
1 Month Change	7.37%
3 Month Change	12.31%
1 Year Change	-1.29%
3 Year Change	0.45%
5 Year Change	80.82%
Change since IPO	1,609.07%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 31

American States Water (NYSE:AWR) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.3975

The board of American States Water Company ( NYSE:AWR ) has announced that the dividend on 1st of September will be...

Jul 29

American States Water Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

American States Water (NYSE:AWR) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Monday, August 1st, after market close. EPS Estimate is $0.71 (-1.4% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $132M (+2.8% Y/Y). has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. upward revisions and 1 downward.

Jul 19

Is American States Water (NYSE:AWR) Using Too Much Debt?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...

Shareholder Returns

	AWR	US Water Utilities	US Market
7D	-3.1%	-2.0%	1.3%
1Y	-1.3%	-8.0%	-11.7%

Return vs Industry: AWR exceeded the US Water Utilities industry which returned -6.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AWR exceeded the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AWR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AWR volatility
AWR Average Weekly Movement	3.8%
Water Utilities Industry Average Movement	4.1%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: AWR is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AWR's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1929	808	Bob Sprowls	https://www.aswater.com

American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, as well as distributes electricity.

American States Water Fundamentals Summary

How do American States Water's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AWR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.24b
Earnings (TTM)	US$82.41m
Revenue (TTM)	US$484.56m

39.3x

P/E Ratio

6.7x

P/S Ratio

Is AWR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AWR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$484.56m
Cost of Revenue	US$218.78m
Gross Profit	US$265.78m
Other Expenses	US$183.37m
Earnings	US$82.41m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.23
Gross Margin	54.85%
Net Profit Margin	17.01%
Debt/Equity Ratio	96.6%

How did AWR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.8%

Current Dividend Yield

65%

Payout Ratio

Does AWR pay a reliable dividends?

See AWR dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy AWR by to receive an upcoming dividend?
American States Water dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 12 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 01 2022
Days until Ex dividend	0 days
Days until Dividend pay date	20 days

Does AWR pay a reliable dividends?

See AWR dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AWR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AWR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AWR. This is calculated by dividing AWR's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AWR's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.24b

AWR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	8.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	21.8x
PEG Ratio	4.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AWR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AWR PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AWR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.1x
CWT California Water Service Group	38.4x	10.4%	US$3.3b
MSEX Middlesex Water	40.9x	n/a	US$1.6b
SJW SJW Group	38x	8.7%	US$2.0b
YORW York Water	35.2x	n/a	US$622.7m
AWR American States Water	39.3x	8.0%	US$3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AWR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the peer average (38.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AWR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Water Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AWR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the US Water Utilities industry average (38.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AWR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AWR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	39.3x
Fair PE Ratio	20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AWR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AWR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AWR ($87.59) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($51.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AWR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is American States Water forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

8.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AWR's forecast earnings growth (8% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AWR's earnings (8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AWR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AWR's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AWR's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AWR's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.9%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has American States Water performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AWR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AWR's current net profit margins (17%) are lower than last year (18.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AWR's earnings have grown by 8.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AWR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AWR had negative earnings growth (-10.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Water Utilities industry average (-2.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AWR's Return on Equity (11.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is American States Water's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AWR's short term assets ($139.0M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($348.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: AWR's short term assets ($139.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($906.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AWR's net debt to equity ratio (95.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AWR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 71.2% to 96.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AWR's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (19.6%).

Interest Coverage: AWR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is American States Water current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

1.82%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AWR's dividend (1.82%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.5%).

High Dividend: AWR's dividend (1.82%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AWR's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AWR's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (65.5%), AWR's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: AWR is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

13.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Bob Sprowls (64 yo)

13.58yrs

Tenure

US$4,542,428

Compensation

Mr. Robert J. Sprowls, also known as Bob, serves as Chief Executive Officer and President at American States Utility Services Inc. Mr. Sprowls has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of American...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bob's total compensation ($USD4.54M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.58M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bob's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AWR's management team is seasoned and experienced (13.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AWR's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AWR insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31