Atmos Energy Corporation

NYSE:ATO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$23.4b

Atmos Energy Valuation

Is ATO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATO ($150.05) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($117.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATO?

Key metric: As ATO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATO. This is calculated by dividing ATO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.4x
EarningsUS$1.04b
Market CapUS$23.35b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34x
NFG National Fuel Gas
75.7x44.2%US$5.8b
SWX Southwest Gas Holdings
31x14.2%US$5.6b
UGI UGI
9.1x0.8%US$5.3b
OGS ONE Gas
20.4x11.4%US$4.4b
ATO Atmos Energy
22.4x11.1%US$23.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the peer average (34x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Gas Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ATO 22.4xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the Global Gas Utilities industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.4x
Fair PE Ratio20.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$150.05
US$143.75
-4.2%
8.6%US$163.00US$115.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$138.40
US$142.25
+2.8%
8.9%US$156.00US$115.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$138.98
US$139.00
+0.01%
5.7%US$148.00US$124.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$130.74
US$133.29
+1.9%
6.2%US$145.00US$124.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$130.08
US$129.29
-0.6%
4.4%US$138.00US$119.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$115.98
US$126.40
+9.0%
4.9%US$138.00US$119.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$115.92
US$126.78
+9.4%
4.5%US$138.00US$119.00n/a8
May ’25US$118.66
US$122.78
+3.5%
4.4%US$133.00US$113.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$117.85
US$122.14
+3.6%
4.7%US$133.00US$113.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$112.73
US$121.02
+7.4%
4.9%US$133.00US$113.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$115.79
US$120.69
+4.2%
5.0%US$133.00US$113.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$115.90
US$120.69
+4.1%
5.6%US$133.00US$109.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$113.85
US$119.38
+4.9%
6.1%US$131.00US$109.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$108.67
US$121.25
+11.6%
5.8%US$131.00US$109.00US$138.408
Oct ’24US$105.93
US$125.50
+18.5%
6.0%US$137.00US$109.00US$138.988
Sep ’24US$115.47
US$125.50
+8.7%
6.2%US$137.00US$109.00US$130.748
Aug ’24US$121.06
US$127.86
+5.6%
6.8%US$137.00US$109.00US$130.087
Jul ’24US$116.34
US$125.14
+7.6%
6.6%US$137.00US$109.00US$115.987
Jun ’24US$112.07
US$125.29
+11.8%
6.7%US$137.00US$109.00US$115.927
May ’24US$114.55
US$124.71
+8.9%
7.2%US$137.00US$106.00US$118.667
Apr ’24US$112.36
US$122.17
+8.7%
7.9%US$137.00US$106.00US$117.856
Mar ’24US$110.54
US$125.00
+13.1%
6.8%US$137.00US$106.00US$112.738
Feb ’24US$118.97
US$123.13
+3.5%
8.3%US$132.00US$106.00US$115.798
Jan ’24US$112.07
US$119.63
+6.7%
7.6%US$132.00US$106.00US$115.908
Dec ’23US$117.49
US$118.38
+0.8%
7.2%US$129.00US$104.00US$113.858
Nov ’23US$106.27
US$115.56
+8.7%
8.2%US$132.00US$104.00US$108.679

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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