Atmos Energy Corporation

NYSE:ATO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$28.2b

Atmos Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Atmos Energy is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.1% and 9.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.5% in 3 years.

Key information

11.1%

Earnings growth rate

7.32%

EPS growth rate

Gas Utilities earnings growth9.5%
Revenue growth rate9.2%
Future return on equity9.55%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated28 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 27

Atmos Energy: Steady Cash Flow Makes Shares A Long-Term Winner

Summary Atmos Energy remains a "Buy" for its stable, regulated business and credible 7%-8% long-term growth outlook. ATO benefits from Texas migration, strong customer growth, and favorable legislative changes supporting rapid cap-ex recovery. Raised FY24 EPS guidance to $8.40-$8.50, reflecting pipeline strength and high near-term visibility, with a 2.2% dividend yield and 42-year increase streak. Ongoing equity issuance (3%-4% share count growth) partially offsets cap-ex-driven rate base expansion, but the balance sheet remains robust with 61% equity to capital. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • May 15

Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of

Atmos Energy Corporation ( NYSE:ATO ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that...
Narrative Update • Apr 22

ATO: Legal Liabilities And Governance Reforms Will Shape A Measured Earnings Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Atmos Energy from about $183.30 to roughly $186.82. This change reflects updated assumptions related to slightly different revenue growth expectations, modestly higher profit margin estimates, and a small adjustment in the projected future P/E.
Narrative Update • Apr 07

ATO: Governance Changes And Legal Risks Will Temper Steady Earnings Outlook

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Atmos Energy to $183.30, reflecting updated assumptions regarding fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E multiples. What's in the News Lyons & Simmons, LLP filed a lawsuit against Atmos Energy on behalf of Jessica Bailey Lopez, citing a gas main leak that allegedly led to a March 19, 2026 home explosion in Lake Dallas and severe injuries, with the surrounding neighborhood under evacuation orders (Lawsuits & Legal Issues).
Narrative Update • Mar 24

ATO: Governance Revisions And Steady Earnings Outlook Will Support Balanced Future Prospects

Analysts have adjusted their price target on Atmos Energy to $183.00 from $180.90, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Shareholders approved amendments to Atmos Energy's Restated Articles of Incorporation to increase authorized shares to 400 million and adjust governance provisions, including plurality voting in contested director elections and clarified indemnification terms (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 09

ATO: Governance Updates And Affirmed Earnings Guidance Will Support Steady Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Atmos Energy to $180.90, a change of $0.80, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Shareholders approved amendments to Atmos Energy's Restated Articles of Incorporation on February 4, 2026, including an increase in authorized shares to 400 million and provisions for plurality voting in contested director elections (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 22

ATO: Expanded Share Authorization And Governance Revisions Will Support Steady Earnings Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Atmos Energy higher to $180.10 from $176.82, reflecting updated views on fair value, slightly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Shareholders approved amendments to Atmos Energy's Restated Articles of Incorporation at the February 4, 2026 annual meeting, including an increase in authorized shares to 400 million and adoption of plurality voting for contested director elections (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 08

ATO: Future Share Authorization And Governance Changes Will Shape Steady Earnings Outlook

Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Atmos Energy to about US$176.82 from roughly US$177.55, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Affirmed fiscal 2026 earnings guidance in a range of US$8.15 to US$8.35 per diluted share, giving investors a reference point for the company’s medium term earnings plans (Corporate Guidance).
Narrative Update • Jan 25

ATO: Future Dividend Increases Will Balance Governance Changes And Share Authorization

Analysts have raised their Atmos Energy price target to US$177.55 from US$175.73, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that slightly adjust their view of the company’s long term earnings power. What's in the News Atmos Energy plans to ask shareholders at its February 4, 2026 AGM to approve an increase in the number of authorized common shares, which could give the company more flexibility for future equity issuance or corporate actions (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 10

ATO: Steady Outlook Will Balance Dividend Progress And Governance Proposals

Analysts have kept their Atmos Energy fair value estimate broadly unchanged at about $175.73. They cited only very small adjustments to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions rather than any shift in their overall view of the company.
Narrative Update • Dec 21

ATO: Higher Dividend And Earnings Guidance Will Shape Balanced Future Outlook

Analysts have increased their price target for Atmos Energy slightly to approximately $176 per share from about $175, citing a modest improvement in expected profit margins that more than offsets slightly lower projected revenue growth and a marginally cheaper forward valuation. What's in the News Atmos Energy shareholders will vote at the February 4, 2026 AGM on amendments to the articles of incorporation, including an increase in authorized common shares, adoption of plurality voting in contested director elections, updates to officer liability limits under Texas and Virginia law, and clarified indemnification and other technical changes (company filing).
Narrative Update • Dec 07

ATO: Dividend Increases And Earnings Outlook Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Atmos Energy by approximately 1 dollar. This change reflects slightly higher projected profitability, a marginally richer future earnings multiple, and a largely unchanged risk profile, despite somewhat softer revenue growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Nov 23

ATO: Dividend Momentum And Legal Challenges Will Influence Future Performance

Analysts have raised their price target for Atmos Energy, increasing it by approximately $3.27 to $174.36. They primarily cite improvements in projected revenue growth and profit margin metrics.
Narrative Update • Nov 07

ATO: Dividend Growth And Legal Risks Are Expected To Shape Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for Atmos Energy from $170 to $171.09, citing improved profit margin forecasts and slightly higher long-term fair value expectations, even though there is a modest reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News Atmos Energy's Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend increase to $1.00 per share.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Profit Margin Outlook And Legal Risks Will Shape Next Year’s Performance

Analysts have increased their price target for Atmos Energy from $166.10 to $170.00, citing improved profit margin forecasts. This comes despite slightly lower revenue growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Oct 10

Texas Legislation And Pipeline Expansion Will Secure A Resilient Future

Analysts have raised their price target on Atmos Energy from $162.70 to $166.10. They cite slight improvements in projected revenue growth, balanced by slightly lower expected profit margins and a marginally higher future price-to-earnings ratio.
Analysis Article • Sep 15

Is Now The Time To Put Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO) On Your Watchlist?

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...
Analysis Article • Aug 05

Atmos Energy (NYSE:ATO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

NYSE:ATO 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Atmos Energy's Fair Values from the Community and select yours The...
Analysis Article • Jul 18

Here's What To Make Of Atmos Energy's (NYSE:ATO) Decelerating Rates Of Return

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 04

Atmos Energy: No Upside At Current Levels

Summary Atmos Energy, the largest regulated natural gas distributor in the U.S., has seen its share price surge to all-time highs due amid strong financial results and sector tailwinds. Despite promising growth prospects, the current valuation multiples are stretched relative to the company's own historical norms. Key industry peers are compared with Atmos both in terms of their business models and performance. Atmos's stock is currently unattractively priced for new investors, though I rate it a Hold for existing shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 02

Atmos Energy: Credible Growth Plan Is Reflected In Valuation

Summary Atmos Energy has shown moderate performance in 2024, gaining 19%, but lagging behind the market rally due to its less cyclical, regulated utility nature. The company’s secure cash flow supports stable dividends, though EPS growth is slower due to necessary debt and equity issuance for capital programs. Atmos targets 7.4% EPS growth in 2025, driven by a significant capital spending plan and favorable regulatory environments, particularly in Texas. I view this as credible. While Atmos offers a steady income source with a 2.5% yield, its long-term return potential is under 10%, making it a "hold" rather than a "buy." Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 11

Atmos Energy: The Buying Opportunity Has Now Passed

Summary Since my buy article in June, Atmos Energy has nearly tripled the total returns of the S&P 500 index. The natural gas utility continues to possess a healthy growth outlook. Atmos Energy's balance sheet is A-rated by S&P. The regulated gas utility is now trading close to fair value. Atmos Energy's 8% annual total return potential through FY 2027 is decent, but not enough for a buy rating here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 20

Decisive Regulatory Engagements And Diverse Growth Avenues Propel Revenue And Strengthen Financial Health

Regulatory engagements and successful rate adjustments signal strong revenue growth and a positive outlook on future earnings.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 09

Atmos Energy: Another Solid Quarter Is Largely Reflected In Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Atmos Energy shares have risen steadily in recent weeks as interest rates have declined, up 8% over the past year, but likely have limited upside unless rates fall further. Atmos earnings beat expectations, with solid Q3 results driven by reliability-focused cap-ex and predictable cash flow. Atmos's regulatory wins, Texas positioning, and credible guidance support continued growth, though ongoing share dilution does limit EPS growth to 6-8%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ATO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
9/30/20286,3431,7632,1112,9758
9/30/20275,7941,562-1,7862,6959
9/30/20265,2431,411-2,0632,25610
3/31/20264,8811,346-1,9911,876N/A
12/31/20254,8691,249-1,6282,075N/A
9/30/20254,7031,198-1,5122,049N/A
6/30/20254,6231,157-1,3742,032N/A
3/31/20254,4861,136-1,3061,947N/A
12/31/20244,1831,083-1,2881,770N/A
9/30/20244,1651,042-1,2031,734N/A
6/30/20244,0951,027-1,2101,641N/A
3/31/20244,056999-1,2471,559N/A
12/31/20233,9509257363,516N/A
9/30/20234,2758856543,460N/A
6/30/20234,4108384683,270N/A
3/31/20234,5648295603,230N/A
12/31/20224,673797-1,4511,105N/A
9/30/20224,202774-1,467978N/A
6/30/20224,047751-1,3341,004N/A
3/31/20223,837725-1,355958N/A
12/31/20213,506697-3,376-1,179N/A
9/30/20213,407665-3,054-1,084N/A
6/30/20213,314682-2,904-1,016N/A
3/31/20213,201697-2,785-998N/A
12/31/20202,860640-8411,023N/A
9/30/20202,821601-8981,038N/A
6/30/20202,790594-8451,055N/A
3/31/20202,783557-8691,042N/A
12/31/20192,900532N/A977N/A
9/30/20192,902511N/A969N/A
6/30/20192,903491N/A898N/A
3/31/20192,979482N/A934N/A
12/31/20183,104446N/A1,116N/A
9/30/20183,116602N/A1,125N/A
6/30/20183,136600N/A1,157N/A
3/31/20183,100599N/A1,066N/A
12/31/20172,869582N/A923N/A
9/30/20172,760382N/A867N/A
6/30/20172,728381N/A911N/A
3/31/20172,658377N/A894N/A
12/31/20162,560357N/A842N/A
9/30/20162,455345N/A795N/A
6/30/20162,678334N/A724N/A
3/31/20162,908324N/A724N/A
12/31/20153,558318N/A855N/A
9/30/20152,927305N/A812N/A
6/30/20154,274315N/A827N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ATO's forecast earnings growth (11.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: ATO's earnings (11.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ATO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ATO's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ATO's revenue (9.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ATO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/31 05:44
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Atmos Energy Corporation is covered by 22 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Gary HovisArgus Research Company
Richard GrossBarclays
Nicholas CampanellaBarclays