If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Avangrid (NYSE:AGR) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Avangrid:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.031 = US$955m ÷ (US$35b - US$3.4b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2020).
So, Avangrid has an ROCE of 3.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Electric Utilities industry average of 4.5%.
View our latest analysis for Avangrid
In the above chart we have a measured Avangrid's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Avangrid here for free.
So How Is Avangrid's ROCE Trending?
In terms of Avangrid's historical ROCE trend, it doesn't exactly demand attention. The company has employed 36% more capital in the last five years, and the returns on that capital have remained stable at 3.1%. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.
The Bottom Line
Long story short, while Avangrid has been reinvesting its capital, the returns that it's generating haven't increased. Unsurprisingly, the stock has only gained 16% over the last three years, which potentially indicates that investors are accounting for this going forward. Therefore, if you're looking for a multi-bagger, we'd propose looking at other options.
One final note, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Avangrid (including 1 which is doesn't sit too well with us) .
While Avangrid may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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