Be Wary Of AES (NYSE:AES) And Its Returns On Capital

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think AES (NYSE:AES) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for AES:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.059 = US$2.2b ÷ (US$47b - US$9.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

Therefore, AES has an ROCE of 5.9%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 5.5%, it's still a low return by itself.

View our latest analysis for AES

Above you can see how the current ROCE for AES compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering AES for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For AES Tell Us?

In terms of AES' historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 5.9% from 7.9% five years ago. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Our Take On AES' ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by AES' reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Unsurprisingly, the stock has only gained 37% over the last five years, which potentially indicates that investors are accounting for this going forward. As a result, if you're hunting for a multi-bagger, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.

Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for AES (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should know about.

While AES isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.